Ghana is widely regarded as a rapidly maturing African democracy, with peaceful elections and transitions of power since the multi-party system was introduced in 1992. Ghana's abundant natural resources are a blessing in times of elevated commodity prices, and there is scope to ramp up output further. Multilateral debt relief has reduced Ghana's external liabilities significantly, freeing up former debt servicing funds for pro-poor spending and greater developmental efforts.

We keep our clients informed of the latest market moves and political developments in Ghana, as part of our 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' perspective. Clients also benefit from in-depth analysis on 14 of Ghana’s most important industries. We provide interactive data and forecasting alongside detailed and risk-assessed analysis from our expert research teams. Our aim is to keep you ahead of the curve, so you can operate with confidence in Ghana.

Ghana Country Risk

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Core Views:

  • The Emergency Credit Facility (ECF) between Ghana and the IMF has been key to the West African country's economic recovery over the past two years, and the outcome of the latest edition in the saga will determine Ghana's real GDP growth rate over the remainder of 2016 and 2017. We currently forecast a 4.1% expansion in 2016 and 6.5% in 2017, marking a moderate downgrade from the 4.2% and 6.7% respectively we anticipated previously. This is predicated on a belief that while payment of the latest tranche of the USD918mn credit facility will be delayed, the IMF will not fail Ghana altogether, which would entail a greater downgrade than that we have enacted.

  • Recent developments in the economy and the power sector have pushed the closely fought presidential race in Ghana in favour of the challenger, Nana Akufo-Addo of the New Patriotic Party (NPP). We...

Ghana Operational Risk Coverage (9)

Ghana Operational Risk

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BMI View: The Ghanaian government's policy consistency and support for foreign direct investment is beneficial to investors. Ghanaian legislation includes many incentives for companies operating in key areas such as infrastructure, agriculture and manufacturing. Ghana's trade and investment environment is a regional bright spot, and foreign investor interest will be strengthened by multiple trade agreements, special economic zones and bilateral investment treaties. Though economic growth will remain subdued over the short...

Ghana Crime & Security

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BMI View: The operating environment is safer for businesses in Ghana than in most West African countries, with fewer incidences of violent assault and a lower likelihood of terrorist activity. However, investors remain exposed to risks associated with widespread money laundering activities, a growing number of cyberattacks and high levels of petty crime. Ghana has stable relations with its neighbours but the lack of cooperation to combat piracy and organised crime means that criminal groups originating from other countries such as Nigeria are able to reach Ghana's territory. As a result, Ghana receives an overall score of 43.9 out of 100 for Crime and Security, below the global average but ranking in 12th position out of 48 states in...

Ghana Labour Market

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BMI View: Ghana's labour market is attractive compared to other Sub-Saharan Africa countries, with a high level of urbanisation, a large migrant worker community supported by the gradual relaxation of visa restrictions and flexible employment conditions. The country offers limited labour market risks from a regional perspective but poor access to its underfunded education system along with low life expectancy reduces the size of the skilled labour pool considerably. In addition to employe...

Ghana Logistics

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BMI View: Ghana's abundance of natural resources and oil wealth has attracted high levels of foreign direct investment to the country, but the dilapidated state of roads, insufficient water infrastructure and frequent power shortages means investors face a challenging operating environment. Firms reliant on international and cross-border trade face high transportation costs and rising energy costs. This state of affairs will continue to have a particularly negative effect on the extractive sector amid subdued commodity prices. Although Ghana performs ...

Ghana Trade & Investment

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Ghana's trade and investment environment is attractive from a regional perspective, driven by a steady inflow of foreign direct investment and a clear regulatory framework. However, the country's poor banking sector penetration, inadequate legal system and high levels of taxation pose risks to foreign investors. Consequently, Ghana is ranked fourth out of 48 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) the Trade and Investment indicator, with a score of 55.0 out of 100. This mark is less competitive on an international level, placing the country just 75th out of 201 states.

Currently, the government is strongly pushing for greater public-private partnerships for important infrastructure projects. This method of investment mitigates some of the risk to investors, with private and public entities sharing the cost burden of these developments. Investors should be aware, however, of the risk emanating from the country's limited...

Ghana Industry Coverage (15)

Ghana Agribusiness

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BMI View: We believe that the Ghanaian cocoa sector will post reasonably strong growth throughout our forecast period to 2019/20. High cocoa prices will encourage production, while the government has pledged schemes in order to encourage yield growth. However, a significant portion of the growth will be due to base effects. We also see long-term opportunities (but also significant structural challenges) in the Ghanaian palm oil sector.

Key BMI Forecasts

  • Cocoa production growth 2014/15 to 2019/20: 9% to...

Ghana Autos

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BMI View: A weak currency and high interest rates will keep average growth in registrations below 1% over our five-year forecast period.

Slow Growth In Sales
Passenger Car And Light Commercial Vehicle Sales, 2013-2019 (units)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Road Safety Commission, BMI

Key Views

  • Although the number of brands assembling locally continues to grow,...

Ghana Commercial Banking

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Commercial Banking Sector Indicators
Date Total assets Client loans Bond portfolio Other Liabilities and capital Capital Client deposits

Ghana Food & Drink

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BMI View: Real GDP growth in Ghana will accelerate in 2016 and 2017 as the economy recovers from the economic morass it has been in over the past two years. Increasing oil production, improving electricity generation and diminishing deficits will be the root causes of this.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2015 per capita food consumption (local currency) = +11.4%; forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2014 to 2019 = +12.9%.

  • 2015 beer volume sales = +8.0%; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2019 = +10.0%.

  • 2015 carbonated drinks volume sales = +9.3%; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2019 = +9.7%.

Ghana Information Technology

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BMI View: The IT markets in Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria all contracted sharply in 2014 and 2015 as a depression in the commodities complex hurt economic performance and resulted in steep currency depreciation against the US dollar that eroded already weak purchasing power. This was due to a re-evaluation of previous optimism regarding their economic growth trajectory and IT markets, as a lack of structural and institutional strength was laid bare. The fortunes of the three markets are however not tied that closely, with Ghana and Nigeria being more susceptible to further negative shocks in the short-term if the commodities markets take another turn downwards. However, under our core scenario we envisage improved performance over the medium term...

Ghana Infrastructure

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BMI View : Over our 10-year-forecast period Ghana's construction industry will average annual growth of 6.1% in real terms, driven by investment in energy and transport infrastructure. Minimal growth will be recorded in 2016 but figures will rise throughout our forecast period as the market emerges from a recession. The government has made significant strides in tackling its fiscal deficit, which will help to attract much-needed foreign investment, particularly in the ailing power sector.


  • We continue to forecast 2.1% real growth over 2016, 5.2% over the next five years and 6.1% over our full 10-year forecast period up to 2024.

  • Investment into the energy and transport sectors will be the main drivers of growth, where plans to tackle infrastructure deficit are...

Ghana Insurance

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BMI View: Growth in the Ghanaian insurance market will be led by life insurance and, in the non-life segment, motor vehicle insurance. Much of this growth will be driven by population growth and rising affluence, but the proportion of the population covered by insurance will also increase as a result of microinsurance and government schemes. Nevertheless, strong growth comes from a very low base and there are major hurdles to higher rates of growth that are needed to reach the market's full potential.

Headline Insurance Forecasts (Ghana 2013-2020)
2013 2014e ...

Ghana Medical Devices

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BMI View : Ghana remains a small medical device market which will record double-digit growth in local currency terms and high single-digit growth in US dollar terms. Strong fundamentals including a large population and high public healthcare infrastructure investment supported by international funding will continue to drive growth. However, very low healthcare spending will continue to restrict the market size in comparison to other markets in the SSA region.

Projected Medical Device Market, 2015-2020
Total (USDmn) Per Capita (USD) ...

Ghana Mining

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BMI View: West Africa's growth outlook will weaken on the back of continued mineral price weakness, inadequate infrastructure and the aftermath of the Ebola outbreak over the coming quarters. The region's long-term growth outlook remains promising due to countries' vast untapped mineral reserves, positive foreign investment outlook and infrastructure developments.

Select Countries - Mining Industry Forecast
2014e 2015f ...

Ghana Mining

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BMI View: Ghana's gold production will remain subdued as low gold prices will drive miners' to cut costs and restructure organisations. In addition, the country's regulatory environment and ongoing power shortages will limit the sector's growth outlook.

Ghana Mining Industry Value
2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f...

Ghana Oil & Gas

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BMI View: We maintain our bullish view on Ghana's upstream sector, as a healthy pipeline of post-FID projects supports strong oil and gas production growth in the face of a sharp fall in global commodity prices. Longer-term prospects are substantial but uncertain, as question marks remain around the maritime boundary dispute with Cote d'Ivoire and passage of the country's Petroleum Bill. Prospects in the downstream sector remain poor and we see limited scope for refining capacity expansion within our 10-year forecast period.

Headline Forecasts (Ghana 2013-2019)
2013 2014 ...

Ghana Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

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BMI View: Ghana remains an attractive investment prospect for foreign drugmakers operating in Sub-Saharan Africa, and stabilising the national health insurance scheme provides an upside risk to our outlook for the pharmaceutical sector. The Ghanaian government is actively making progress towards fulfilling its ambition of being the Economic Communities of West African States (ECOWAS) hub for pharmaceutical and healthcare investment.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Pharmaceuticals: GHS1.18bn (USD310mn) in 2015 to GHS1.30bn (USD320mn) in 2016; +10.9% in local currency terms and +4.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with Q316.


Ghana Power

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BMI View: Underperforming hydropower and gas feedstock irregularities will keep Ghana's power generation subdued over our 10-year forecast period. An annual average growth rate of 2.2% is forecast, driven mostly by new gas-fired capacity and the commissioning of the Ayitepa wind farm. Significant potential for thermal power investment remains, provided gas exploration obstacles are overcome.

Headline Power Forecasts (Ghana 2015-2021)
2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f...

Ghana Retail

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BMI View: Modern retail continues to slowly push ahead in Ghana. In addition to several new malls that have opened in Accra since 2013, two more will open in Kumasi in 2017, expanding the total available real estate stock - crucial for new brands to either grow or enter the country. Traditional and family-owned vendors will still capture a large share of total retail sales in 2016 and beyond, due to income constraints experienced by Ghanaian households, most of which will still prefer local, more affordable shopping options.


Ghana Telecommunications

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BMI View: Leading operator MTN Ghana launched 4G services in June 2016, following its licence and spectrum acquisition in December 2015. The operator has built infrastructure in Ghana's regional capitals and is currently swapping SIM cards to get customers ready for the launch. We expect the operator to concurrently develop its VAS offerings to monetise the advantage of having the country's only 4G voice licence. Although, we maintain the view that monetisation of this network...

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Latest Ghana Podcasts

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