Ghana is widely regarded as a rapidly maturing African democracy, with peaceful elections and transitions of power since the multi-party system was introduced in 1992. Ghana's abundant natural resources are a blessing in times of elevated commodity prices, and there is scope to ramp up output further. Multilateral debt relief has reduced Ghana's external liabilities significantly, freeing up former debt servicing funds for pro-poor spending and greater developmental efforts.
We keep our clients informed of the latest market moves and political developments in Ghana, as part of our 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' perspective. Clients also benefit from in-depth analysis on 14 of Ghana’s most important industries. We provide interactive data and forecasting alongside detailed and risk-assessed analysis from our expert research teams. Our aim is to keep you ahead of the curve, so you can operate with confidence in Ghana.
Ghana Country Risk
Economic growth in Ghana in 2016 will improve on last year, but will remain below its 10-year average due to tight monetary and fiscal policy. The tighter reins on the economy will build a solid platform for more sustainable growth from 2017 onwards, when we expect that Ghana will become a regional success story once more.
Ghana's delayed 2016 eurobond issuance will make an appearance later in the year, as an integral part of the government's fiscal consolidation programme. The budget deficit will come down this year, but the slump in the oil price will necessitate more borrowing than previously envisaged.
Ghana's current account deficit will narrow over the next several years, but will remain wide as the country's primary exports struggle. Low oil prices in particular will weigh on the balance...
Ghana Operational Risk Coverage (9)
Ghana Operational Risk
Ghana Operational Risk
BMI View: The operating environment is safer for businesses in Ghana than in most West African countries, with fewer incidences of violent assault, but investors remain exposed to risks associated with widespread money laundering activities, a growing number of cyberattacks and high levels of petty crime. Ghana has stable relations with its neighbours but the lack of cooperation to combat piracy and organised crime means that criminal groups originating from other countries such as Nigeria are able to reach Ghana's shores. As a result, Ghana receives an overall score of 43.9 out of 100 for Crime and Security, below the global average but ranking in 12th position out of 48 states in Sub-Saharan Africa.
|Business Crime Risks Undermine Investor Appeal|
|Ghana & Regional Average...|
Ghana Crime & Security
Ghana Crime & Security
BMI View: Ghana is a relatively stable country and risks emanating from crime and security are low for investors in comparison with its West African neighbours. Nonetheless, crime levels in Ghana warrant a degree of vigilance when operating in the country, with foreign workers particularly targeted. The threat of piracy in the region is heightened by a lack of coordination with neighbouring authorities. Due to these considerations, we score the country 48.7 out of 100 for its overall Crime and Security risk. This score places the country 10 thwithin Sub-Saharan Africa and 100 thglobally out of 201 countries covered in BMI Index.
Expatriates and tourists are frequently the victims of non-...
Ghana Labour Market
Ghana Labour Market
BMI View: Ghana's labour market is attractive compared to other Sub-Saharan Africa countries, with a high level of urbanisation, a large migrant worker community supported by the gradual relaxation of visa restrictions and flexible employment conditions. The country offers limited labour market risks from a regional perspective but poor access to its underfunded education system along with low life expectancy reduces the size of the skilled labour pool considerably. In addition to employe...
Ghana's abundance of natural resources and newfound oil wealth has attracted high levels of foreign direct investment flows to the country, but the dilapidated state of its roads, insufficient water network and frequent power shortages means that investors face a tough operating environment and will have to factor in higher start-up costs if they are seeking to expand into this market. Although Ghana performs well by regional standards, high government debt and underinvestment in its utilities infrastructure both threaten to derail economic growth and constitute major risks to investors. Because of these factors, we award Ghana a score of 46.7 out of 100 in the BMI Logistics Risk Index. While this score is uncompetitive from a global perspective, the country does perform well in a regional comparison, ranking fifth out of 48 Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) states, increasing its attractiveness to investors, especially those seeking an entry...
Ghana Trade & Investment
Ghana Trade & Investment
Ghana's trade and investment environment is attractive from a regional perspective, driven by a steady inflow of foreign direct investment and a clear regulatory framework. However, the country's poor banking sector penetration, inadequate legal system and high levels of taxation pose risks to foreign investors. Consequently, Ghana is ranked fourth out of 48 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) the Trade and Investment indicator, with a score of 55.0 out of 100. This mark is less competitive on an international level, placing the country just 75th out of 201 states.
Currently, the government is strongly pushing for greater public-private partnerships for important infrastructure projects. This method of investment mitigates some of the risk to investors, with private and public entities sharing the cost burden of these developments. Investors should be aware, however, of the risk emanating from the country's limited...
Ghana Industry Coverage (15)
BMI View: We believe that the Ghanaian cocoa sector will post reasonably strong growth over our forecast period to 2019/20. High cocoa prices will encourage production, while the government has pledged schemes in order to encourage yield growth. However, a significant portion of the growth will be due to base effects. We also see long-term opportunities (but also significant structural challenges) in the Ghanaian palm oil sector.
Key BMI Forecasts
Cocoa production growth 2014/15 to 2019/20: 23.4% to 913,...
BMI View: A weak currency and high interest rates will keep average growth in registrations below 1% over our five-year forecast period.
|Slow Growth In Sales|
|Passenger Car And Light Commercial Vehicle Sales, 2013-2019 (units)|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Road Safety Commission, BMI|
Although the number of brands assembling locally continues to grow,...
Ghana Commercial Banking
|Date||Total assets||Client loans||Bond portfolio||Other||Liabilities and capital||Capital||Client deposits...|
Food & Drink
Ghana Food & Drink
BMI View: Real GDP growth in Ghana will accelerate in 2016 and 2017 as the economy recovers from the economic morass it has been in over the past two years. Increasing oil production, improving electricity generation and diminishing deficits will be the root causes of this.
Headline Industry Data
2015 per capita food consumption (local currency) = +11.4%; forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2014 to 2019 = +12.9%.
2015 beer volume sales = +8.0%; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2019 = +10.0%.
2015 carbonated drinks volume sales = +9.3%; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2019 = +9.7%.
Ghana Information Technology
BMI View: The IT markets in Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria all contracted sharply in 2014 and 2015 as a depression in the commodities complex hurt economic performance and resulted in steep currency depreciation against the US dollar that eroded already weak purchasing power. This was as a reality check on previous optimism regarding their economic growth trajectory and IT markets, as a lack of structural and institutional strength was laid bare. The fortunes of the three markets are not however tied that closely, with Ghana and Nigeria more susceptible to further negative shocks in the short-term if the commodities markets take another turn downwards. However, under our core scenario we envisage improved performance over the medium term for all three markets, but caution that there is a long way to go before the rapid growth of IT spending observed in the higher income emerging markets is replicated in Sub-Saharan Africa....
BMI View : Over our 10-year-forecast period Ghana's construction industry will average annual growth of 6.1% in real terms, driven by investment in energy and transport infrastructure. Minimal growth will be recorded in 2016 but figures will rise throughout our forecast period as the market emerges from a recession. The government has made significant strides in tackling its fiscal deficit, which will help to attract much-needed foreign investment, particularly in the ailing power sector.
We continue to forecast 2.1% real growth over 2016, 5.2% over the next five years and 6.1% over our full 10-year forecast period up to 2024.
Investment into the energy and transport sectors will be the main drivers of growth, where plans to tackle infrastructure deficit are...
BMI View: Ghana's insurance market is set to grow rapidly, albeit from a very low base. A number of large regional providers have positioned themselves to take advantage of growth potential, primarily in the non-life sector, and we are gradually seeing a broadening in the product offering, including more microinsurance products, which will make insurance more accessible for the large sections of the population which fall into lower income brackets. In the life sector, significant education is needed in order to raise awareness of the benefits of various life products, and though the market is currently small, future growth potential is substantial.
Ghana Medical Devices
BMI Industry View : Ghana represents a comparatively small medical device market of just under USD60mn. Per capita spending is low at USD2.2 indicating considerable potential for expansion. The market will achieve a double digit CAGR growth in local currency terms during the forecast period but due to a weakening currency, this will translate to a CAGR of just 0.1% in USD terms to 2019.
Headline Industry Forecasts
Primarily supplied by imports, we forecast the market to register one of the world's lowest CAGRs in US dollar terms over the 2009-2014 period at just 0.1%. In 2014, Ghana's medical...
BMI View: West Africa's growth outlook will weaken on the back of continued mineral price weakness, inadequate infrastructure and the aftermath of the Ebola outbreak over the coming quarters. The region's long-term growth outlook remains promising due to countries' vast untapped mineral reserves, positive foreign investment outlook and infrastructure developments.
BMI View: Ghana's gold output will slow as weak gold prices will force miners to cut costs and restructure organisations. In addition, the country's regulatory environment and ongoing power shortages will limit the sector's growth outlook.
Oil & Gas
Ghana Oil & Gas
BMI View: We maintain our bullish view on Ghana's upstream sector, as a healthy pipeline of post-FID projects supports strong oil and gas production growth in the face of a sharp fall in global commodity prices. Longer-term prospects are substantial but uncertain, as question marks remain around the maritime boundary dispute with Cote d'Ivoire and passage of the country's Petroleum Bill. Prospects in the downstream sector remain poor and we see limited scope for refining capacity expansion within our 10-year forecast period.
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
Ghana Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
BMI View: The Ghanaian government will retain its support towards domestic pharmaceutical manufacturers in the country, in hope of achieving status as the Economic Communities of West African States' hub for pharmaceutical and healthcare investment. Larger domestic manufacturers will look to gain WHO and GMP certification, allowing Ghana to reduce its unsustainable reliance on imports. However, local manufacturers will continue to be challenged by their global competitiveness against Asian drugmakers who are often able to provide cheaper medicines. The...
BMI View: Underperforming hydropower and gas feedstock irregularities will keep Ghana's power generation subdued over our 10-year forecast period. An annual average growth rate of 2.2% is forecast, driven mostly by new gas-fired capacity and the commissioning of the Ayitepa wind farm. Significant potential for thermal power investment remains, provided gas exploration obstacles are overcome.
BMI View: Ghana's retail market is still highly underdeveloped, thus offering a lot of untapped potential across the sector. However, the country's economic growth continues suffering from low global commodity prices and tight fiscal policy. Despite rapid income growth, persistently high inflation levels will erode consumer purchasing power - thus limiting spending to mostly essential goods and services, particularly in the short term.
|Headline Household Spending|
BMI View: Leading operator MTN Ghana plans to launch 4G services in June 2016, following its licence and spectrum acquisition in December 2015. The operator has built infrastructure in Ghana's regional capitals and is currently swapping SIM cards to get customers ready for the launch. According to MTN, data prices will remain unchanged when the service launches. BMI expects the operator to concurrently develop its VAS offerings to monetize the advantage of having the country's only 4G voice licence.
|Potential For Growth|
|Mobile Subscriptions and 3G/4G Subscriptions (2014-2020)|