Ghana is widely regarded as a rapidly maturing African democracy, with peaceful elections and transitions of power since the multi-party system was introduced in 1992. Ghana's abundant natural resources are a blessing in times of elevated commodity prices, and there is scope to ramp up output further. Multilateral debt relief has reduced Ghana's external liabilities significantly, freeing up former debt servicing funds for pro-poor spending and greater developmental efforts.

We keep our clients informed of the latest market moves and political developments in Ghana, as part of our 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' perspective. Clients also benefit from in-depth analysis on 14 of Ghana’s most important industries. We provide interactive data and forecasting alongside detailed and risk-assessed analysis from our expert research teams. Our aim is to keep you ahead of the curve, so you can operate with confidence in Ghana.

Country Risk

Ghana Country Risk

BMI View:

Core Views:

  • An uptick in investor sentiment, the launch of the TEN oilfields and the waning of the electricity crisis will lead to an uptick in real GDP growth in Ghana in 2016, following two years of macroeconomic turmoil. We forecast expansion of 4.9% and 5.8% in 2016 and 2017, respectively.

  • The November 2016 presidential and parliamentary elections in Ghana will be closely contested between incumbent John Mahama and primary challenger Nana Akufo-Addo. President Mahama will seek to present himself as strong on corruption and policy failure in the coming months, but cutting the fiscal deficit while retaining support will take careful balancing.

  • The Bank of Ghana's (BoG)'s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) opted to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 26.00% at its January meeting, indicating to us that it has in fact...

Ghana Operational Risk Coverage (9)

Ghana Operational Risk

BMI View:

BMI View: The operating environment is safer for businesses in Ghana than in most West African countries, with fewer incidences of violent assault, but investors remain exposed to risks associated with widespread money laundering activities, a growing number of cyberattacks and high levels of petty crime. Ghana has stable relations with its neighbours but the lack of cooperation to combat piracy and organised crime means that criminal groups originating from other countries such as Nigeria are able to reach Ghana's shores. As a result, Ghana receives an overall score of 43.9 out of 100 for Crime and Security, below the global average but ranking in 12th position out of 48 states in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Business Crime Risks Undermine Investor Appeal
Ghana & Regional Average...

Ghana Crime & Security

BMI View:

BMI View: Ghana is a relatively stable country and risks emanating from crime and security are low for investors in comparison with its West African neighbours. Nonetheless, crime levels in Ghana warrant a degree of vigilance when operating in the country, with foreign workers particularly targeted. The threat of piracy in the region is heightened by a lack of coordination with neighbouring authorities. Due to these considerations, we score the country 48.7 out of 100 for its overall Crime and Security risk. This score places the country 10 thwithin Sub-Saharan Africa and 100 thglobally out of 201 countries covered in BMI Index.

Expatriates and tourists are frequently the victims of non-...

Ghana Labour Market

BMI View:

BMI View: Ghana's labour market is attractive compared to other Sub-Saharan Africa countries, with a high level of urbanisation, a large migrant worker community supported by the gradual relaxation of visa restrictions and flexible employment conditions. The country offers limited labour market risks from a regional perspective but poor access to its underfunded education system along with low life expectancy reduces the size of the skilled labour pool considerably. In addition to employe...

Ghana Logistics

BMI View:

Ghana's abundance of natural resources and newfound oil wealth has attracted high levels of foreign direct investment flows to the country, but the dilapidated state of its roads, insufficient water network and frequent power shortages means that investors face a tough operating environment and will have to factor in higher start-up costs if they are seeking to expand into this market. Although Ghana performs well by regional standards, high government debt and underinvestment in its utilities infrastructure both threaten to derail economic growth and constitute major risks to investors. Because of these factors, we award Ghana a score of 46.7 out of 100 in the BMI Logistics Risk Index. While this score is uncompetitive from a global perspective, the country does perform well in a regional comparison, ranking fifth out of 48 Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) states, increasing its attractiveness to investors, especially those seeking an entry...

Ghana Trade & Investment

BMI View:

Ghana's trade and investment environment is attractive from a regional perspective, driven by a steady inflow of foreign direct investment and a clear regulatory framework. However, the country's poor banking sector penetration, inadequate legal system and high levels of taxation pose risks to foreign investors. Consequently, Ghana is ranked fourth out of 48 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) the Trade and Investment indicator, with a score of 55.0 out of 100. This mark is less competitive on an international level, placing the country just 75th out of 201 states.

Currently, the government is strongly pushing for greater public-private partnerships for important infrastructure projects. This method of investment mitigates some of the risk to investors, with private and public entities sharing the cost burden of these developments. Investors should be aware, however, of the risk emanating from the country's limited...

Ghana Industry Coverage (24)

Agribusiness

Ghana Agribusiness

BMI View:

BMI View: We believe that the Ghanaian cocoa sector will post reasonably strong growth over our forecast period to 2019/20. High cocoa prices will encourage production, while the government has pledged schemes in order to encourage yield growth. However, a significant portion of the growth will be due to base effects. We also see long-term opportunities (but also significant structural challenges) in the Ghanaian palm oil sector.

Key BMI Forecasts

  • Cocoa production growth 2014/15 to 2019/20: 23.4% to 913,...

Autos

Ghana Autos

BMI View:

BMI View: Total vehicle sales will remain under pressure due to the weak currency and high interest rates dragging on passenger vehicle sales. The slow recovery within the economy, driven by infrastructure investment and a tight fiscal and monetary policy will provide support to commercial vehicle sales which will grow 1.8% in 2016.

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Total Vehicle Sales Remain Under Pressure
Total Vehicle Registrations (2014-2020)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Ghana NRSC, BMI

Commercial Banking

Ghana Commercial Banking

BMI View:

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Commercial Banking Sector Indicators
Date Total assets Client loans Bond portfolio Other Liabilities and capital Capital Client deposits

Food & Drink

Ghana Food & Drink

BMI View:

BMI View: Real GDP growth in Ghana will accelerate in 2016 and 2017 as the economy recovers from the economic morass it has been in over the past two years. Increasing oil production, improving electricity generation and diminishing deficits will be the root causes of this.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2015 per capita food consumption (local currency) = +11.4%; forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2014 to 2019 = +12.9%.

  • 2015 beer volume sales = +8.0%; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2019 = +10.0%.

  • 2015 carbonated drinks volume sales = +9.3%; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2019 = +9.7%.

Information Technology

Ghana Information Technology

BMI View:

BMI View: The volatility of demand in low-value and undeveloped IT markets such as those in Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria were underlined by the sharp downturn in 2014 and 2015. The decline in commodity and oil markets, and general increase in negative sentiment towards emerging markets resulted in currency depreciation and erosion of purchasing power and sentiment, which was a negative shock in small and highly price-sensitive markets. This served as a reality check on optimism regarding their economic growth trajectory and IT markets as a lack of structural and institutional strength was laid bare. We expect improved performance over the medium term, but caution that there is a long way to go before the rapid growth of IT spending observed in the higher income emerging markets is...

Infrastructure

Ghana Infrastructure

BMI View:

BMI View : Over our 10-year-forecast period Ghana's construction industry will average annual growth of 6.1% in real terms, driven by investment in energy and transport infrastructure. Minimal growth will be recorded in 2016 but figures will rise throughout our forecast period as the market emerges from a recession. The government has made significant strides in tackling its fiscal deficit, which will help to attract much-needed foreign investment, particularly in the ailing power sector.

Forecast

  • We continue to forecast 2.1% real growth over 2016, 5.2% over the next five years and 6.1% over our full 10-year forecast period up to 2024.

  • Investment into the energy and transport sectors will be the main drivers of growth, where plans to tackle infrastructure deficit are...

Insurance

Ghana Insurance

BMI View:

BMI View: Ghana's insurance market is small by regional and global standards. However, it is growing rapidly. Insurers are successfully utilising more innovative distribution channels, including the use of mobile phones and other online services, to reach more households. The increasing availability of more affordable microinsurance products is another key channel for growth in a country where many households remain in the lowest income brackets. With premiums in both the life and non-life sectors expected to rise throughout the forecast period, we are seeing more regional and multinational insurers take an interest in Ghana's growth potential.

...
Headline Insurance Forecasts (Ghana 2013-2020)
2013e

Medical Devices

Ghana Medical Devices

BMI View:

BMI Industry View : Ghana represents a comparatively small medical device market of just under USD60mn. Per capita spending is low at USD2.2 indicating considerable potential for expansion. The market will achieve a double digit CAGR growth in local currency terms during the forecast period but due to a weakening currency, this will translate to a CAGR of just 0.1% in USD terms to 2019.

Headline Industry Forecasts

  • Primarily supplied by imports, we forecast the market to register one of the world's lowest CAGRs in US dollar terms over the 2009-2014 period at just 0.1%. In 2014, Ghana's medical...

Metals

Ghana Metals

BMI View:

BMI View: Tin prices will be capped by US dollar strength in 2016, leading us to trim our price forecast to USD14,500/tonne. Beyond 2016, prices will recover gradually as the global tin market posts sustained market deficits and inventories dwindle.

...
Global - Tin Supply, Demand & Price Forecasts
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f

Ghana Metals

BMI View:

BMI view: We have revised our aluminium price forecast from USD1,575/tonne to USD1,600/tonne in 2016, as the tightening market provided an earlier than expected floor in Q116. Aluminium prices will gradually edge higher as the global market moves into a deficit by 2018.

...
Global - Aluminium Supply, Demand & Price Forecasts
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f

Ghana Metals

BMI View:

BMI View: Globally, iron ore prices will remain subdued due to weak demand growth in China and expanding output by major miners in Australia and Brazil. China will see output slow as the country's iron ore miners operate on the higher end of the global iron ore cost curve.

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Global Iron Ore Forecast
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f

Ghana Metals

BMI View:

BMI View: Nickel prices will bottom in 2016 as weak production drags the global market into deficit. For instance, we expect Chinese imports of nickel to grow over the coming quarters. Prices will begin 2016 weaker than we had previously expected and we have thus revised down our 2016 average price forecast to USD9,000/tonne from USD10,500/tonne.

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Global Nickel Forecasts
2013 2014 2015e

Ghana Metals

BMI View:

BMI View: We have revised down our average copper price forecast for 2016 to USD4,900/tonne. We expect prices to find a floor over the first half of 2016, and begin to stabilise thereafter, supported by production cuts and modest consumption growth.

Global - Copper Supply, Demand & Price Forecasts
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f ...

Ghana Metals

BMI View:

BMI View: Gold prices will prove resilient in 2016 due to a dovish shift in global monetary policy and elevated systemic financial sector risks. However, we do not foresee a sustained multi-year recovery and the mining sector will thus remain under significant stress. We forecast slowing mine production growth and increasing consolidation.

BMI Gold Forecasts
2014 2015 2016f 2017f ...

Ghana Metals

BMI View:

BMI View: Global steel prices will remain subdued due to a persistent steel oversupply over the coming quarters. From 2017 onwards, steel prices will gradually edge higher as the global steel surplus will narrow due to Chinese supply moderation.

Steel Price Forecast
2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f...

Ghana Metals

BMI View:

BMI View: We maintain our average zinc price forecast for 2016 of USD1,750/tonne. We expect zinc prices to reach a floor over the first half of 2016, and begin to stabilise thereafter, as production cuts shift the market to a deficit.

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Global - Zinc Supply, Demand & Price Forecasts
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f

Ghana Metals

BMI View:

BMI View: Lead prices will gradually edge higher as the global lead market will shift into deficit by 2017 as production growth will slow over the coming years.

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BMI Lead Price Forecast
Current* 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f

Mining

Ghana Mining

BMI View:

BMI View: West Africa's growth outlook will weaken on the back of continued mineral price weakness, inadequate infrastructure and the aftermath of the Ebola outbreak over the coming quarters. The region's long-term growth outlook remains promising due to countries' vast untapped mineral reserves, positive foreign investment outlook and infrastructure developments.

Select Countries - Mining Industry Forecast
2014e 2015f ...

Ghana Mining

BMI View:

BMI View: Ghana's mining sector will remain heavily reliant on gold production and, as such, will face severe headwinds over the next few years as prices of the commodity come under increasing pressure globally.

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Ghana Mining Industry Value
2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f

Oil & Gas

Ghana Oil & Gas

BMI View:

BMI View: We maintain our bullish view on Ghana's upstream sector, as a healthy pipeline of post-FID projects supports strong oil and gas production growth in the face of a sharp fall in global commodity prices. Longer-term prospects are substantial but uncertain, as question marks remain around the maritime boundary dispute with Cote d'Ivoire and passage of the country's Petroleum Bill. Prospects in the downstream sector remain poor and we see limited scope for refining capacity expansion within our 10-year forecast period.

Headline Forecasts (Ghana 2013-2019)
2013 2014 ...

Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Ghana Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

BMI View:

BMI View: The Ghanaian government is actively making progress towards fulfilling its ambition of being the Economic Communities of West African States (ECOWAS) hub for pharmaceutical and healthcare investment. Domestic drugmakers are in a favourable position to take advantage of the growing regional demand for medicines, while the government, in association with foreign aid agencies, is continuing to upgrade local export capacities. The larger domestic manufacturers will look to gain WHO certification and fulfilment of export potential needs for Good Manufacturing Practice certification. This would allow Ghana to reduce its unsustainable reliance on imported pharmaceuticals, however cheaper generic imports threaten the competitiveness of Ghanaian domestic drug manufacturers on a domestic and regional scale.

...

Power

Ghana Power

BMI View:

BMI View: Current low rainfall levels and gas supply irregularities result in Ghana having a subdued power generation forecast for 2016. Increased investment into diversifying the power sector and the resignation of the Minister of Power show the Ghanaian government's firm commitment to solving the power crisis, with strong potential for growth present should rainfall increase and gas supply improve.

...
Headline Power Forecasts (Ghana 2015-2021)
2015e 2016f 2017f

Retail

Ghana Retail

BMI View:

BMI View: We expect to see an uptick in Ghana's real GDP growth in 2016, coming in at 4.9%, marking the beginning of the country's recovery after a couple of difficult years. Inflation will remain high but, forecast at 15.5%, will be lower than last year. We also expect to see greater stability in the value of the cedi. Essentials spending will continue to take the lion's share of household spending but we do expect to growth in many non-essential retail sub-sectors, albeit from a low base.

Headline Household Spending
(2014-2020)
...

Telecommunications

Ghana Telecommunications

BMI View:

BMI View: BusyInternet's migration to TD-LTE ensures its wireless broadband business can continue to operate in Ghana's mobile-centric telecoms market. However, high device costs and limited mobility will ensure that it does not disrupt the fast-growing 3G/4G mobile sector. BMI notes that demand for wireline and fixed wireless broadband services in Ghana - which includes the ageing WiMAX standard BusyInternet initially adopted - has limited mass-market appeal, primarily due to the lack of adequate fixed infrastructure, but also due to the high cost of devices such as mobile computers. By contrast, the 3G/4G user base is growing rapidly on the back of low prices and subsidised entry-level smartphones and tablets. Unsurprisingly, BusyInternet has elected to enter this more dynamic market, but we feel it will have a limited impact at best.

...

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