Ghana is widely regarded as a rapidly maturing African democracy, with peaceful elections and transitions of power since the multi-party system was introduced in 1992. Ghana's abundant natural resources are a blessing in times of elevated commodity prices, and there is scope to ramp up output further. Multilateral debt relief has reduced Ghana's external liabilities significantly, freeing up former debt servicing funds for pro-poor spending and greater developmental efforts.
We keep our clients informed of the latest market moves and political developments in Ghana, as part of our 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' perspective. Clients also benefit from in-depth analysis on 14 of Ghana’s most important industries. We provide interactive data and forecasting alongside detailed and risk-assessed analysis from our expert research teams. Our aim is to keep you ahead of the curve, so you can operate with confidence in Ghana.
Ghana Country Risk
An uptick in investor sentiment, the launch of the TEN oilfields and the waning of the electricity crisis will lead to an uptick in real GDP growth in Ghana in 2016, following two years of macroeconomic turmoil. We forecast expansion of 4.9% and 5.8% in 2016 and 2017, respectively.
The November 2016 presidential and parliamentary elections in Ghana will be closely contested between incumbent John Mahama and primary challenger Nana Akufo-Addo. President Mahama will seek to present himself as strong on corruption and policy failure in the coming months, but cutting the fiscal deficit while retaining support will take careful balancing.
The Bank of Ghana's (BoG)'s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) opted to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 26.00% at its January meeting, indicating to us that it has in fact...
Ghana Operational Risk Coverage (9)
Ghana Operational Risk
Ghana Operational Risk
BMI View: Foreign investors can take advantage of Ghana's stable operating environment, with limited crime and security risks compared to neighbouring states. Ghana is one of the fastest growing countries in the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region and the government's support for trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) is conducive for investors. Businesses will also face lower risks with regard to staffing their operations given the widely available, albeit low skill, labour pool. The biggest threats and costs, however, will emanate from the country's relatively undeveloped transport sector and overburdened utilities infrastructure which will add supply chain delays and raise input costs. We also highlight liquidity issues in the domestic banking sector as an issue for businesses wishing to finance their operations in-country. Ghana therefore receives a moderate score of 50.1 out of 100 in the BMI...
Ghana Crime & Security
Ghana Crime & Security
BMI View: Ghana is a relatively stable country and risks emanating from crime and security are low for investors in comparison with its West African neighbours. Nonetheless, crime levels in Ghana warrant a degree of vigilance when operating in the country, with foreign workers particularly targeted. The threat of piracy in the region is heightened by a lack of coordination with neighbouring authorities. Due to these considerations, we score the country 48.7 out of 100 for its overall Crime and Security risk. This score places the country 10 thwithin Sub-Saharan Africa and 100 thglobally out of 201 countries covered in BMI Index.
Expatriates and tourists are frequently the victims of non-...
Ghana Labour Market
Ghana Labour Market
BMI View: Ghana's labour market is attractive compared to other Sub-Saharan Africa countries, with a high level of urbanisation, a large migrant worker community and flexible employment conditions. The country offers limited labour market risks from a regional perspective but poor access to its underfunded education system along with low life expectancy reduces the size of the skilled labour pool considerably. In addition to employer absenteeism, businesses operating in Ghana face high severance pay costs. Overall, Ghana's score of...
Ghana's abundance of natural resources and newfound oil wealth has attracted high levels of foreign direct investment flows to the country, but the dilapidated state of its roads, insufficient water network and frequent power shortages means that investors face a tough operating environment and will have to factor in higher start-up costs if they are seeking to expand into this market. Although Ghana performs well by regional standards, high government debt and underinvestment in its utilities infrastructure both threaten to derail economic growth and constitute major risks to investors. Because of these factors, we award Ghana a score of 46.7 out of 100 in the BMI Logistics Risk Index. While this score is uncompetitive from a global perspective, the country does perform well in a regional comparison, ranking fifth out of 48 Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) states, increasing its attractiveness to investors, especially those seeking an entry...
Ghana Trade & Investment
Ghana Trade & Investment
Ghana's trade and investment environment is attractive from a regional perspective, driven by a steady inflow of foreign direct investment and a clear regulatory framework. However, the country's poor banking sector penetration, inadequate legal system and high levels of taxation pose risks to foreign investors. Consequently, Ghana is ranked fourth out of 48 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) the Trade and Investment indicator, with a score of 55.0 out of 100. This mark is less competitive on an international level, placing the country just 75th out of 201 states.
Currently, the government is strongly pushing for greater public-private partnerships for important infrastructure projects. This method of investment mitigates some of the risk to investors, with private and public entities sharing the cost burden of these developments. Investors should be aware, however, of the risk emanating from the country's limited...
Ghana Industry Coverage (15)
BMI View: We believe that the Ghanaian cocoa sector will post reasonably strong growth over our forecast period to 2018/19. High cocoa prices will encourage production, while the government has pledged schemes in order to encourage yield growth. However, a significant portion of the growth will be due to base effects. We also see long-term opportunities (but also significant structural challenges) in West Africa's palm oil sector.
Key BMI Forecasts
Cocoa production growth 2014/15 to 2019/20: 42% to 996,000 tonnes. While much of this growth will be due to base effects, the government has committed to supplying free inputs and...
BMI View: A weak currency and high interest rates will keep average growth in registrations below 1% over our five-year forecast period.
|Slow Growth In Sales|
|Passenger Car And Light Commercial Vehicle Sales, 2013-2019 (units)|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Road Safety Commission, BMI|
Although the number of brands assembling locally continues to grow,...
Ghana Commercial Banking
|Date||Total assets||Client loans||Bond portfolio||Other||Liabilities and capital||Capital||Client deposits...|
Food & Drink
Ghana Food & Drink
BMI View: Real GDP growth in Ghana will accelerate in 2016 and 2017 as the economy recovers from the economic morass it has been in over the past two years. Increasing oil production, improving electricity generation and diminishing deficits will be the root causes of this.
Headline Industry Data
2015 per capita food consumption (local currency) = +11.4%; forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2014 to 2019 = +12.9%.
2015 beer volume sales = +8.0%; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2019 = +10.0%.
2015 carbonated drinks volume sales = +9.3%; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2019 = +9.7%.
Ghana Information Technology
BMI View: IT markets in Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria all experienced a sharp downturn in 2014 and 2015 as a result of the downturn in commodity and oil markets, and general increase in negative sentiment towards emerging markets. This served as a reality check on optimism regarding their economic growth trajectory and IT markets as a lack of structural and institutional was laid bare. This resulted in a significant reassessment of both historical data and our growth forecast for all three IT markets in the Q116 update, with all three markets receiving significant downgrades and classified as long-term rather than medium term opportunities for vendors. The outlook is however by no means uniform, with Nigeria expected to underperform due to a reliance on oil exports that will be a drag throughout the forecast period. In contrast...
BMI View : Over our 10-year-forecast period Ghana's construction industry will average annual growth of 6.1% in real terms, driven by investment in energy and transport infrastructure. Minimal growth will be recorded in 2016 but figures will rise throughout our forecast period as the market emerges from a recession. The government has made significant strides in tackling its fiscal deficit, which will help to attract much-needed foreign investment, particularly in the ailing power sector.
We continue to forecast 2.1% real growth over 2016, 5.2% over the next five years and 6.1% over our full 10-year forecast period up to 2024.
Investment into the energy and transport sectors will be the main drivers of growth, where plans to tackle infrastructure deficit are...
BMI View: Ghana's insurance market will increasingly present opportunities to investors and new entrants over the next few years as demand for life insurance and other important personal lines starts to grow from a very low base. Another contributing factor will be the introduction of more stringent capital requirements for local producers, which will surely benefit multinationals looking to gain a foothold in the market.
Ghana Medical Devices
BMI Industry View : Ghana represents a comparatively small medical device market of just under USD60mn. Per capita spending is low at USD2.2 indicating considerable potential for expansion. The market will achieve a double digit CAGR growth in local currency terms during the forecast period but due to a weakening currency, this will translate to a CAGR of just 0.1% in USD terms to 2019.
Headline Industry Forecasts
Primarily supplied by imports, we forecast the market to register one of the world's lowest CAGRs in US dollar terms over the 2009-2014 period at just 0.1%. In 2014, Ghana's medical...
BMI View: West Africa's growth outlook will weaken on the back of continued mineral price weakness, inadequate infrastructure and the aftermath of the Ebola outbreak over the coming quarters. The region's long-term growth outlook remains promising due to countries' vast untapped mineral reserves, positive foreign investment outlook and infrastructure developments.
BMI View: Ghana's mining sector will remain heavily reliant on gold production and, as such, will face severe headwinds over the next few years as prices of the commodity come under increasing pressure globally.
Oil & Gas
Ghana Oil & Gas
BMI View: We maintain our bullish view on Ghana's upstream sector, as a healthy pipeline of post-FID projects supports strong oil and gas production growth in the face of a sharp fall in global commodity prices. Longer-term prospects are substantial but uncertain, as question marks remain around the maritime boundary dispute with Cote d'Ivoire and passage of the country's Petroleum Bill. Prospects in the downstream sector remain poor and we see limited scope for refining capacity expansion within our 10-year forecast period.
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
Ghana Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
BMI View: Should Ghana's government allocate the funds required for local producer Danadams to gain WHO certification, the company will boost its presence both domestically and internationally. This would allow Ghana to reduce its unsustainable reliance on imported pharmaceuticals, although non-payment of allocated funds by the government remains a risk to our outlook.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: GHS1.01bn (USD329mn) in 2014 to GHS1.18bn (USD311mn) in 2015; +16.5% in local currency terms and -5.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q415 in local currency terms, but upgraded in US dollar terms.
Healthcare: GHS5.80bn (USD1.89bn...
BMI View: Ghana's total electricity generation will remain subdued throughout 2016. Prolonged periods of low rainfall and inadequate gas supply will result in reduced capacity for its hydro and gas-fired power sources respectively.
BMI View: Ghanaian households are projected to enjoy a robust growth of nominal incomes in the medium term. However, high inflation and a weak cedi will negatively impact real income gains and consumer confidence. Even with low unemployment rate and expanding household spending, essentials will continue to account for more than three fifths of consumer budgets in the medium term.
The growth levels in the Ghanaian economy have slowed down in the last two years, meaning that the total GDP of Ghana is expected to be just USD32bn in 2015. However, expansion is expected to return to the country soon, as we expect the output to reach USD48bn by 2019, representing a strong cumulative annual growth rate of 10.6%, and this development should...
BMI View: Ghana's mobile market benefits from the presence of four major regional and international players, which have driven rapid growth in the mobile market through competitive offers and innovative services. By contrast, limited competition in the wireline market has stifled growth and investment into fixed broadband services. However, with digital migration now underway, the NCA's sale of 800MHz spectrum to mobile market leader MTN and increasing investment into fibre and last mile broadband connectivity, Ghana's data market is ripe for growth.
|800MHz Spectrum Poses Upside Risk To 3G/4G|
|Ghana Mobile Forecast|