Our comprehensive assessment of Gabon's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Gabon, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Gabon's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Gabon before your competitors.
Gabon Country Risk
Annual real GDP growth in Benin will average 5.2% between 2015 and 2024 as consumer spending increases and the country's political stability engenders elevated levels of fixed investment. Nevertheless, a sporadic electricity supply and reliance on cotton production will hold back the pace of economic development.
Benin's political landscape shows little sign of fragility, and will remain one of the most stable, open and accountable in West Africa in the years ahead, enjoined by a free press and a multitude of political parties. Nevertheless, the country faces challenges in the long term such as an overspill of violence from piracy and terrorist activity in the region, and the potential for tribal/ethnic schisms to open.
Gabon Country Risk
The Republic of Congo will receive a boost to real GDP growth in 2016 due to a surge in crude oil production and stabilisation of the Central African franc thanks to its peg to the euro. However, a weak outlook for oil prices will weigh on fiscal revenues for the foreseeable future. President Denis Sassou-Nguesso of the Republic of Congo will press on with planned changes to the country's constitution that will allow him to run for a third term in the 2016 election. Despite a high degree of popular resistance to this move, he will be successful in securing a victory in 2016.
Indicator 2014e ...
The Republic of Congo will receive a boost to real GDP growth in 2016 due to a surge in crude oil production and stabilisation of the Central African franc thanks to its peg to the euro. However, a weak outlook for oil prices will weigh on fiscal revenues for the foreseeable future.
President Denis Sassou-Nguesso of the Republic of Congo will press on with planned changes to the country's constitution that will allow him to run for a third term in the 2016 election. Despite a high degree of popular resistance to this move, he will be successful in securing a victory in 2016.
Gabon Industry Coverage (6)
BMI View: Despite low oil prices and a tightening government budget, total vehicle sales are forecast to grow by 2.2% over our five-year forecast period. Commercial vehicles are forecast to outperform, growing at an annual average of 4.3% from 2015-2019 off the back of proposed infrastructure plans.
|Passenger Car and Light Commercial Vehicle Sales|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast Source: URAI, BMI|
Food & Drink
Gabon Food & Drink
BMI View: The prospects for the food and drink industry are impacted by Gabon's small population, particularly relative to its regional peers, presenting limited opportunities for large-scale expansion of the food and drink industry. Premiumisation will have to play a more important role in driving growth. Gabon has a very immature retail market, which restricts the spread of branded food and drink products. Foreign investment prospects in this area remain limited due to poor logistics, a lack of affordable and good-quality real estate and an unattractive business environment. We forecast that Gabon's real GDP growth will slow to 3.4% in 2015, compared with an estimated expansion of 4...
BMI View: With the new reality of low oil prices reducing the capital available for the government to invest in infrastructure development, we therefore forecast growth to slow after 2016, although we remain positive over our 10-year horizon to 2024. Despite lower oil prices the government said it will continue to invest in infrastructure development, which we believe unlikely.
Trends And Deve...
Oil & Gas
Gabon Oil & Gas
BMI View: Gabon's oil sector remains vulnerable to the decline in global oil prices, with reports of delays to a key upstream project on the back of uncertain economic conditions. Continued upstream investment is indicative of the market's untapped potential, but above ground worries ranging from industrial action to unattractive fiscal terms will remain obstacles to the sustained investment necessary to reverse declining reserves and output.
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
Gabon Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
BMI View: Gabon's pharmaceutical market growth will be boosted as coverage of the national health insurance scheme expands. Opportunities will be focussed within the generic drug market, however, and Gabon's small market size will continue to act as a deterrent to any local investments by multinational drugmakers.
Headline Expenditure Forecasts
Pharmaceuticals: XAF46.20bn (USD94mn) in 2014 to XAF48.14bn (USD81mn) in 2015; +4.2% in local currency and -14.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q415.
Healthcare: XAF401.2bn (USD820mn) in 2014 to XAF444.8bn (USD746mn) in 2015; +10.9% in local currency and -9.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged...
BMI View: The BMI Q3 2015 West and Central Africa report analyses latest industry, regulatory and macroeconomic developments and trends in the telecommunications market in seven countries: Cameroon, Cote d' Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Gabon, Mali, Mauritania and Senegal. Strong growth over the past decade will inevitably lead to more saturated market dynamics towards 2019 and beyond as operators will increasingly shift towards advanced data services to sustain and build on revenue generation. The efforts of operators will be complemented by the uptake of low-cost smartphones and mobile devices along with access to cheap and more reliable international bandwidth connectivity via submarine cables. Nevertheless, 3G and 4G shares will remain relatively low than more advanced Middle-Eastern countries.