Gabon

In-depth country-focused analysis on Gabon's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Gabon

Our comprehensive assessment of Gabon's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Gabon, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Gabon's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Gabon before your competitors.

Country Risk

Gabon Country Risk

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CORE VIEWS

  • Annual real GDP growth in Benin will average 5.2% between 2015 and 2024 as consumer spending increases and the country's political stability engenders elevated levels of fixed investment. Nevertheless, a sporadic electricity supply and reliance on cotton production will hold back the pace of economic development.

  • Benin's political landscape shows little sign of fragility, and will remain one of the most stable, open and accountable in West Africa in the years ahead, enjoined by a free press and a multitude of political parties. Nevertheless, the country faces challenges in the long term such as an overspill of violence from piracy and terrorist activity in the region, and the potential for tribal/ethnic schisms to open.

KEY...

Gabon Country Risk

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  • While economic growth will continue to perform well in the Republic of Congo thanks to significant increases in oil production, poorly targeted investment and the re-election of President Denis Sassou Nguesso will mean that prospects for diversifying the economy away from oil dependence remain limited.

  • The resurgence of the so-called Ninja militia group in the Republic of the Congo does not pose an existential threat to the newly re-elected government of President Denis Sassou Nguesso. However, the timing of the attacks and the government's heavy-handed response will keep political risk elevated over the next year.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Congo-Brazzaville 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014e ...

Gabon Operational Risk Coverage (1)

Gabon Operational Risk

Gabon Industry Coverage (7)

Autos

Gabon Autos

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BMI View: Despite low oil prices and a tightening government budget, total vehicle sales are forecast to grow by 2.2% over our five-year forecast period. Commercial vehicles are forecast to outperform, growing at an annual average of 4.3% from 2015-2019 off the back of proposed infrastructure plans.

Passenger Car and Light Commercial Vehicle Sales
(2013-2019)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast Source: URAI, BMI
...

Food & Drink

Gabon Food & Drink

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BMI View: The food and drink industry will see strong growth over 2016, growth being driven by premiumisation. High urbanisation rates and an expanding tourism sector will support premiumisation-driven growth throughout our forecast period. A large youth population and improving logistics network presents long-term growth opportunities in Gabon's food and drink industry.

Food and Drink Spending
(2013-2020)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, national sources
...

Infrastructure

Gabon Infrastructure

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BMI View : Gabon's construction sector is forecasted to grow at 5.6% y-o-y in 2016 and average 5.2% over our 10-year forecast. The main driver of growth will be investment in the oil and gas industry, though depressed commodity prices will limit government revenues. Foreign direct investment is critical to addressing the country's infrastructure deficit, and the government is eager to improve ties with China to finance its ambitious development plans.

Forecast

  • We continue to forecast 5.6% real growth in Mozambique's construction industry value in 2016, reaching an average of 4.5% over the next five years and 5.2 over our full 10-year forecast period.

  • Infrastructure spending will be limited in the coming years owing to a wide fiscal...

Oil & Gas

Gabon Oil & Gas

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BMI View: Gabon's oil sector remains vulnerable to the decline in global oil prices, with reports of delays to a key upstream project on the back of uncertain economic conditions. Continued upstream investment is indicative of the market's untapped potential, but above-ground worries ranging from industrial action to unattractive fiscal terms will remain obstacles to the sustained investment necessary to reverse declining reserves and output.

Headline Forecasts (Gabon 2014-2020)
2014 2015e ...

Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Gabon Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

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BMI View : Gabon's pharmaceutical and healthcare markets will be challenged by insufficient healthcare infrastructure, the lack of domestic manufacturing capabilities and a weakening oil sector. The country suffers from a small pharmaceutical market size and low affordability levels, which will continue to discourage investment from multinational pharmaceutical companies. That said, as the national health insurance scheme gains traction, it will provide momentum for pharmaceutical expenditure and expanding healthcare access in Gabon. However, the Gabonese government will struggle to increase funding for healthcare to the 15% target set at the Abuja declaration, and the country will continue to rely on aid funding from external organisations.

Headline Expenditure...

Telecommunications

Gabon Telecommunications

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BMI View: The Q1 2016 West and Central Africa report analyses latest industry, regulatory and macroeconomic developments and trends in the telecommunications market in seven countries: Cameroon, Cote d' Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Gabon, Mali, Mauritania and Senegal. Strong growth over the past few years has resulted in more saturated markets, at least in terms of the number of mobile telephony subscriptions. However, there is considerable long term value to be gleaned from these markets and, moving towards 2019 and beyond, regional mobile operators will increasingly shift towards advanced data services to sustain and build on revenue generation. The efforts of operators will be complemented by the uptake of low-cost smartphones and mobile devices along with access to cheap and more reliable international bandwidth connectivity via submarine cables.

Regional Markets To Show Strong...

Gabon Telecommunications

BMI View:

BMI View : Cameroon and Gabon score relatively highly in our Risk/Reward Index for Sub-Saharan Africa. Their improving economies, dynamic mobile markets and progressive regulatory regimes mark them out as modestly risky investment destinations. Gabon is saturated, however, and consolidation is underway; price competition may now intensify, but operators need to focus on services - rather than infrastructure - as a differentiator. In Cameroon, regulator ART is actively encouraging investment in fibre that would allow operators to lower operating costs and invest in advanced services.

Cameroon & Gabon Mobile Market Forecasts
2014-2020
...

Latest Gabon Articles

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  • In December 2015, we identified five key themes for 2016. In this article, ...

  • A pullback in capex in the global oil and gas sector will be in part offset...

Latest Gabon Podcasts

  • Huge media attention and investment has made Sub-Saharan Africa's tele...

  • Despite another tough year for the global mining sector, BMI expects p...

  • The increasingly important economic relationship between Asia and Sub-...

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