In-depth country-focused analysis on Gabon's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight


Our comprehensive assessment of Gabon's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Gabon, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Gabon's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Gabon before your competitors.

Gabon Country Risk

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  • Annual real GDP growth in Benin will average 5.2% between 2015 and 2024 as consumer spending increases and the country's political stability engenders elevated levels of fixed investment. Nevertheless, a sporadic electricity supply and reliance on cotton production will hold back the pace of economic development.

  • Benin's political landscape shows little sign of fragility, and will remain one of the most stable, open and accountable in West Africa in the years ahead, enjoined by a free press and a multitude of political parties. Nevertheless, the country faces challenges in the long term such as an overspill of violence from piracy and terrorist activity in the region, and the potential for tribal/ethnic schisms to open.


Gabon Country Risk

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  • Economic growth in the Republic of Congo will be sustained by strong growth in crude oil production over the next two years. Given the dominance of the oil sector, this trend will help offset the impact of slowing investment growth following a rise in political risk, but will do nothing to help diversify the economy away from a dangerous level of dependence on one commodity.

  • Sporadic political attacks will continue in the Republic of Congo over the coming quarters, as resentment towards the government remains high following the changes made to the country's constitution in November 2016 that allowed the president to run for another term in office. Nonetheless, these attacks will not reach the point whereby they begin to destabilise the government or undermine Congo's economic growth trajectory.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Congo-Brazzaville 2014-2017)

Gabon Operational Risk Coverage (1)

Gabon Operational Risk

Gabon Industry Coverage (8)

Gabon Autos

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BMI View: Despite low oil prices and a tightening government budget, total vehicle sales are forecast to grow by 2.2% over our five-year forecast period. Commercial vehicles are forecast to outperform, growing at an annual average of 4.3% from 2015-2019 off the back of proposed infrastructure plans.

Passenger Car and Light Commercial Vehicle Sales
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast Source: URAI, BMI

Gabon Food & Drink

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BMI View: Premiumisation will continue to drive growth in Gabon's food and drink industry throughout our forecast period, as the country's small population will limit the scope for mass market offerings. We hold a positive consumer outlook on the back of low inflation, rising household spending and a basic foods products subsidy. Gabon's mass grocery retail sector will remain largely underdeveloped over our forecast period, and informal markets will continue to dominate food retail sales.

Food and Drink Spending

Gabon Infrastructure

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BMI View : Gabon's construction sector is forecasted to grow at 5.6% y-o-y in 2016 and average 5.2% over our 10-year forecast. The main driver of growth will be investment in the oil and gas industry, though depressed commodity prices will limit government revenues. Foreign direct investment is critical to addressing the country's infrastructure deficit, and the government is eager to improve ties with China to finance its ambitious development plans.


  • We continue to forecast 5.6% real growth in Mozambique's construction industry value in 2016, reaching an average of 4.5% over the next five years and 5.2 over our full 10-year forecast period.

  • Infrastructure spending will be limited in the coming years owing to a wide fiscal...

Gabon Oil & Gas

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BMI View: Gabon's oil sector remains vulnerable to the decline in global oil prices, with reports of delays to a key upstream project on the back of uncertain economic conditions. Continued upstream investment is indicative of the market's untapped potential, but above-ground worries ranging from industrial action to unattractive fiscal terms will remain obstacles to the sustained investment necessary to reverse declining reserves and output.

Headline Forecasts (Gabon 2014-2020)
2014 2015e ...

Gabon Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

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BMI View : Gabon's small pharmaceutical market will continue to act as a deterrent to any local investments by multinational drugmakers. Opportunities will be largely focused within the generic drug market, yet over the long term, as the national health insurance scheme gains momentum, this will provide greater momentum for pharmaceutical expenditure. The Gabonese government will struggle to increase funding for healthcare to the 15% target set at the Abuja declaration, and the country will continue to rely on aid funding from external organisations.

Headline Expenditure Projections


Gabon Retail

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BMI View: Despite the fact that World Bank considers Gabon an upper-middle-income country, its retail sector is small and underdeveloped. Over the near term, Gabon's oil-dependent economy will continue to suffer from lower export revenues, which will weigh on public spending and overall business confidence. While low inflation and government subsidies for basic food product will provide some respite, we expect household spending levels to remain subdued over the next few quarters.

Headline Household Spending

Gabon Telecommunications

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BMI View: The Q1 2016 West and Central Africa report analyses latest industry, regulatory and macroeconomic developments and trends in the telecommunications market in seven countries: Cameroon, Cote d' Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Gabon, Mali, Mauritania and Senegal. Strong growth over the past few years has resulted in more saturated markets, at least in terms of the number of mobile telephony subscriptions. However, there is considerable long term value to be gleaned from these markets and, moving towards 2019 and beyond, regional mobile operators will increasingly shift towards advanced data services to sustain and build on revenue generation. The efforts of operators will be complemented by the uptake of low-cost smartphones and mobile devices along with access to cheap and more reliable international bandwidth connectivity via submarine cables.

Regional Markets To Show Strong...

Gabon Telecommunications

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BMI View : Cameroon and Gabon's improving economies, dynamic mobile markets and progressive regulatory regimes mark them out as investment destinations with only moderate levels of risk. However, Gabon's mobile market is saturated and consolidation is underway; price competition may also now intensify and operators therefore need to focus on services - rather than infrastructure - as a way of differentiating their offering customers. In Cameroon, regulator ART is actively encouraging investment in fibre that would allow operators to lower operating costs and invest in advanced services.

Cameroon & Gabon Mobile Market Forecasts

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