Gabon

In-depth country-focused analysis on Gabon's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Gabon

Our comprehensive assessment of Gabon's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Gabon, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Gabon's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Gabon before your competitors.

Country Risk

Gabon Country Risk

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CORE VIEWS

  • Annual real GDP growth in Benin will average 5.2% between 2015 and 2024 as consumer spending increases and the country's political stability engenders elevated levels of fixed investment. Nevertheless, a sporadic electricity supply and reliance on cotton production will hold back the pace of economic development.

  • Benin's political landscape shows little sign of fragility, and will remain one of the most stable, open and accountable in West Africa in the years ahead, enjoined by a free press and a multitude of political parties. Nevertheless, the country faces challenges in the long term such as an overspill of violence from piracy and terrorist activity in the region, and the potential for tribal/ethnic schisms to open.

KEY...

Gabon Country Risk

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  • Real GDP growth will remain robust in Congo-Brazzaville over the next two years, thanks to strong production growth in the oil sector offsetting much of the impact from sustained low prices. Both the budget and current account deficits will see significant improvements over this period on the back of increasing oil production.

  • The decision to bring forward the date of the Republic of Congo's presidential election makes a victory for incumbent president, Denis Sassou Nguesso, all but certain.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Congo-Brazzaville 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014e 2015e ...

Gabon Industry Coverage (6)

Autos

Gabon Autos

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BMI View: The constant threat of cheaper used imported vehicles paired with a poor construction industry outlook will result in total new vehicle sales growth of 4% to 5,598 units in 2016.

A Small Vehicle Market Supported By A Small Population
Total Vehicle Market By Segment (2014-2020)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: URAI, BMI
Key Views
* Used vehicle imports to remain a threat to new vehicle...

Food & Drink

Gabon Food & Drink

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BMI View: The prospects for the food and drink industry are impacted by Gabon's small population, particularly relative to its regional peers, presenting limited opportunities for large-scale expansion of the food and drink industry. Premiumisation will have to play a more important role in driving growth. Gabon has a very immature retail market, which restricts the spread of branded food and drink products. Foreign investment prospects in this area remain limited due to poor logistics, a lack of affordable and good-quality real estate and an unattractive business environment. We forecast that Gabon's real GDP growth will slow to 3.4% in 2015, compared with an estimated expansion of 4...

Infrastructure

Gabon Infrastructure

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BMI View : Gabon's construction sector is forecasted to grow at 5.6% y-o-y in 2016 and average 5.2% over our 10-year forecast. The main driver of growth will be investment in the oil and gas industry, though depressed commodity prices will limit government revenues. Foreign direct investment is critical to addressing the country's infrastructure deficit, and the government is eager to improve ties with China to finance its ambitious development plans.

Forecast

  • We continue to forecast 5.6% real growth in Mozambique's construction industry value in 2016, reaching an average of 4.5% over the next five years and 5.2 over our full 10-year forecast period.

  • Infrastructure spending will be limited in the coming years owing to a wide fiscal...

Oil & Gas

Gabon Oil & Gas

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BMI View: Gabon's oil sector remains vulnerable to the decline in global oil prices, with reports of delays to a key upstream project on the back of uncertain economic conditions. Continued upstream investment is indicative of the market's untapped potential, but above ground worries ranging from industrial action to unattractive fiscal terms will remain obstacles to the sustained investment necessary to reverse declining reserves and output.

Headline Forecasts (Gabon 2013-2019)
2013 2014 2015f...

Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Gabon Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

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BMI View: Gabon's pharmaceutical market growth will be boosted as coverage of the national health insurance scheme expands. Opportunities will be focussed within the generic drug market, however, and Gabon's small market size will continue to act as a deterrent to any local investments by multinational drugmakers.

Headline Expenditure Forecasts

  • Pharmaceuticals: XAF46.20bn (USD94mn) in 2014 to XAF48.14bn (USD81mn) in 2015; +4.2% in local currency and -14.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q415.

  • Healthcare: XAF401.2bn (USD820mn) in 2014 to XAF444.8bn (USD746mn) in 2015; +10.9% in local currency and -9.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged...

Telecommunications

Gabon Telecommunications

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BMI View: The Q1 2016 West and Central Africa report analyses latest industry, regulatory and macroeconomic developments and trends in the telecommunications market in seven countries: Cameroon, Cote d' Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Gabon, Mali, Mauritania and Senegal. Strong growth over the past few years has resulted in more saturated markets, at least in terms of the number of mobile telephony subscriptions. However, there is considerable long term value to be gleaned from these markets and, moving towards 2019 and beyond, regional mobile operators will increasingly shift towards advanced data services to sustain and build on revenue generation. The efforts of operators will be complemented by the uptake of low-cost smartphones and mobile devices along with access to cheap and more reliable international bandwidth connectivity via submarine cables.

Regional Markets To Show Strong...

Latest Gabon Articles

  • We have revised down our CME milk price forecast for 2016 and now see price...

  • We believe that there is currently disconnect between oil prices and fundam...

  • Price-elastic consumption growth and more limited growth in supply will mai...

Latest Gabon Podcasts

  • Huge media attention and investment has made Sub-Saharan Africa's tele...

  • Despite another tough year for the global mining sector, BMI expects p...

  • The increasingly important economic relationship between Asia and Sub-...

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