Our comprehensive assessment of Finland's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Finland, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Finland's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Finland before your competitors.
Finland Country Risk
Finland's economy looks set to remain on a sluggish growth trajectory in the years ahead.
The country will lag behind both eurozone and Scandinavian peers in real GDP terms, as reforms aimed at tackling structural economic issues dampen near term growth.
These same reforms, which aim to boost labour market flexibility and cost competitiveness, will also be insufficient alone to boost long-term growth.
Finland will struggle to recover robustly from the decline of the paper, telecoms and shipbuilding industries.
Economic problems will weigh on support for the coalition government, implying that coalition unity will be hard to maintain.
Major Forecast Changes
Finland Industry Coverage (9)
|Passenger Car and Light Commercial Vehicle Sales|
|f = BMI forecast. Source: Autoalan Tiedotuskesku, BMI|
Commercial vehicles are outperforming cars against a sluggish macroeconomic backdrop.
New model launches from leading players have lent some support to passenger car sales.
Finnish production will remain supported by output from the Valmet Automotive factory in Uusikaupunki
October 2015 first...
Food & Drink
Finland Food & Drink
BMI View: A consumer base with some of the strongest purchasing power in the world, combined with a favourable business and regulatory environment, will continue to be an attractive characteristic for food and drink companies operating in Scandinavia. That said, market concentration and a weak demographic outlook will limit growth for new entrants.
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
Throughout our forecast period to 2020, household spending will experience healthy growth in the Nordics, given...
BMI View: Despite a government committed to developing key infrastructure, public spending will remain constrained by weak economic growth, which is being held back by external demand pressures and the fading of key domestic industries. Nevertheless, growth, both economic and in the construction sector, is turning positive and with it opportunities in buildings construction, transport infrastructure and energy projects. Construction growth in 2016 will come in at 0.4% with a sector value of EUR11.3bn (USD12.1bn).
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
Activity in Finland's construction industry is beginning to pick up, with building permits and starts steadily increasing over 2015 and is supportive of production volumes in 2016.
Finland Medical Devices
BMI View: We forecast a modest 2014-2019 US dollar CAGR of 1.8%, which is below the Western Europe average. Although the large and expanding elderly population would indicate a steady rise in medical device consumption, increasing financial pressures on the healthcare system and the relatively small population overall are likely to constrain future growth rates. While Finland has a history of high quality domestic production, the majority of output is exported leaving the domestic market heavily dependent on imported products.
|Total (USDmn)||Per Capita (USD)||Total (...|
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
Finland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
BMI View: Innovative drugmaker revenues will remain under threat in Finland. The Finnish government is committed to containing rising healthcare costs and despite company concerns regarding falling drug prices, we believe the success of the annual decline in reimbursed medicine prices will result in the government maintaining the generic reference pricing system that is in place. Amplifying price pressures on patented medicines are the unsystematic price cuts on medicines, which are more disruptive to drugmaker revenue streams in Finland.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: EUR2.85bn (USD3.82bn) in 2014 to EUR2.93bn (USD3.23bn) in 2015;+3.0% in local currency terms and -15.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter...
BMI View: This quarter we have revised our forecast for the nuclear power sector to reflect the impact of the tax on nuclear power generation, which was increased in 2015. Taking into account positive macroeconomic expectations for the Nordic region as well as sector trends, we continue to expect power consumption growth in 2016. Similarly, we maintain our long-held view that, while growth expectations in the region are improving, economic woes in the eurozone remain a major risk factor for the consumption and generation outlook of the country, as more regional...
BMI View: This quarter we have slightly revised our forecasts, as we expect coal-fired power to contract further as a result of Finnish plans to phase-down coal by the late 2020s. At the same time we have upgraded our forecast for biomass-fired power generation as we believe that it will form a key component of Finnish renewables strategy over the next decade, owing to the government's aim to restructure the country's forest-related industry - in order to adapt to a fall in demand for traditional forest-related products. This notwithstanding, we maintain our long-held view that, while growth expectations in the region are improving, economic woes in the eurozone remain a major risk factor for the consumption and generation outlook of the country, as more regional instability could undermine their economic activity.
BMI View: We hold a relatively upbeat outlook for Finland's non-hydropower renewables segment, as strong political support for the biomass sector through the restructuring of the traditional forest-related industry, and potential for coal-to-biomass conversions due to a planned coal-phasedown, mean that the biomass sector will drive renewables growth. In contrast, investor interest in the wind sector will contract over the next years, as the government moves to curb costs in the segment by restricting access to the country's feed-in-tariff programme.
BMI View : Finland has the highest penetration rate in Western Europe, as many users complement their usual mobile phone subscription with one specifically for mobile broadband. However, the Finnish government seeks to expedite the construction of communications and electricity networks with acts on shared construction and use of infrastructure. On November 12, the Finnish Ministry of Transport and Communications decided to implement an act covering sharing of networks and to revise the Information Society Code regarding networks within buildings. The acts are expected to be effective from July 1 2016. The government aims to slash the construction costs of high-speed broadband networks, by boosting collaboration among grid operators and to facilitate the development of digital services and functions.
|Data Drives Demand|
|Mobile And 3G/4G Forecasts...|