Our comprehensive assessment of Finland's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Finland, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Finland's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Finland before your competitors.
Finland Country Risk
Finland's economy is facing a number of cyclical and structural headwinds that are dragging on growth. Without structural reform, poor competitiveness will ensure that growth remains weak.
The new government has put forward a much needed economic reform package, but it remains to be seen whether it can be successfully implemented.
Over a longer time horizon, looming structural challenges pose a threat to public debt dynamics and may impede fiscal flexibility. Several key sectors, including forestry and papermaking, shipbuilding and telecommunications remain in terminal decline, while high labour costs are acting as a deterrent for investment and importers of Finnish goods, despite strong structural competitiveness. This has cast doubt over the government's ability to sustainably increase aggregate demand through...
Finland Industry Coverage (8)
Passenger Car and Light Commercial Vehicle Sales (2013-2019) f = BMI forecast. Source: Autoalan Tiedotuskesku, BMI
Commercial vehicles are outperforming cars against a sluggish macroeconomic backdrop.
New model launches from leading players have lent some support to passenger car sales.
Finnish production will remain supported by output from the Valmet Automotive factory in Uusikaupunki
October 2015 first...
Food & Drink
Finland Food & Drink
BMI View: Boasting a consumer base of 25mn with some of the strongest purchasing power in the world and offering a favourable business and regulatory environment, the four Nordic markets could offer attractive investment opportunities. That said, there are limited opportunities for growth, as the economic and demographic outlook remains relatively grim. Moreover, the food and drink markets are highly concentrated, presenting significant challenges for new entrants.
BMI View: A constrained economic picture, falling GFCF and the escalating impact of Russian sanctions are affecting the prospects for sector growth in Finland. There are, however, a significant number of transport and utility infrastructure projects in the pipeline, but not enough to generate a strong long-term growth outlook for the industry.
There is substantial scope for projects in the transport sector: a working group from the Ministry of Transport and Communications report in 2014 estimated about EUR2.4bn is required to repair damage to the transport network and improve services.
The Finnish economy will remain stuck in a zero- to no-growth environment in 2016. While external demand will improve slightly, domestic demand will struggle as key...
Finland Medical Devices
BMI Industry View: Growth will slow in Finland's medical device market; we forecast a modest 2014-2019 US dollar CAGR of 1.8%, which is below the Western Europe average. Although the large and expanding elderly population would indicate a steady rise in medical device consumption, increasing financial pressures on the healthcare system are likely to constrain future growth rates. While Finland has a history of high quality domestic production, the majority of output is exported leaving the domestic market heavily dependent on imported products.
Headline Industry Forecasts
We forecast the medical device market will grow at a 2014-2019 CAGR of 1.8% in US dollar terms, taking the value to USD1.2bn in 2019. The low dollar rate reflects a weak euro at the start of the forecast period. The market will contract in US dollar terms in 2015...
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
Finland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
BMI View: Innovative drugmaker revenues will remain under threat in Finland. The Finnish government is committed to containing rising healthcare costs and despite company concerns regarding falling drug prices, we believe the success of the annual decline in reimbursed medicine prices will result in the government maintaining the generic reference pricing system that is in place. Amplifying price pressures on patented medicines are the unsystematic price cuts on medicines, which are more disruptive to drugmaker revenue streams in Finland.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: EUR2.85bn (USD3.82bn) in 2014 to EUR2.93bn (USD3.23bn) in 2015;+3.0% in local currency terms and -15.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter...
BMI View: This quarter our fundamental assumptions for Denmark, Finland and Sweden continue to be relevant. Taking into account relatively positive macroeconomic expectations for the Nordic region as well as sector trends, we continue to expect power consumption growth in 2016. Similarly, we maintain our long-held view that, while growth expectations in the region are improving, economic woes in the eurozone remain a major risk factor for the consumption and generation outlook of the three Nordic countries, as more regional instability ...
BMI View: We hold a quite muted view across the Nordics for this quarter - with opaque policy environments emerging in Finland, Denmark and Sweden, as the new governments chart out new courses for their energy policy. As all the countries are aiming to curb costs in their non-hydro renewables sectors segments, we expect growth to slow significantly from the levels of the previous decade.
BMI View : Finland has the highest penetration rate in Western Europe, as many users complement their usual mobile phone subscription with one specifically for mobile broadband. Dedicated mobile broadband is bigger than fixed broadband, thanks to the scope of LTE coverage and the proliferation of unlimited data plans. Thanks to pro-consumer regulation, the Finnish market is very competitive with three operators, which drives advanced services at affordable prices. The fixed market has lagged behind, and while fixed voice will continue to decline, fixed broadband will see some growth thanks to the development of ultrafast broadband through fibre services and the National Broadband Plan.
The mobile market recovered some growth in Q215, after...