Finland

In-depth country-focused analysis on Finland's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Finland

Our comprehensive assessment of Finland's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Finland, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Finland's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Finland before your competitors.

Country Risk

Finland Country Risk

BMI View:

Core Views

  • Finland's economy is facing a number of cyclical and structural headwinds that are dragging on growth. Without structural reform, poor competitiveness will ensure that growth remains weak.

  • The new government has put forward a much needed economic reform package, but it remains to be seen whether it can be successfully implemented.

  • Over a longer time horizon, looming structural challenges pose a threat to public debt dynamics and may impede fiscal flexibility. Several key sectors, including forestry and papermaking, shipbuilding and telecommunications remain in terminal decline, while high labour costs are acting as a deterrent for investment and importers of Finnish goods, despite strong structural competitiveness. This has cast doubt over the government's ability to sustainably increase aggregate demand through...

Finland Industry Coverage (9)

Autos

Finland Autos

BMI View:

BMI View: We continue to believe that a combination of sluggish economic growth and rising unemployment will undermine the prospects of the Finnish new vehicle sales market in 2016. We are targeting growth of just 1% for the sector as a whole, with CV sales set to outperform PC sales slightly.

Passenger Car and Light Commercial Vehicle Sales
(2014-2020)
f = BMI forecast. Source: Autoalan Tiedotuskesku, BMI

Key Views

  • This quarter, ...

Food & Drink

Finland Food & Drink

BMI View:

BMI View: Boasting a consumer base of 25mn with some of the strongest purchasing power in the world and offering a favourable business and regulatory environment, the four Nordic markets could offer attractive investment opportunities. That said, there are limited opportunities for growth, as the economic and demographic outlook remains relatively grim. Moreover, the food and drink markets are highly concentrated, presenting significant challenges for new entrants.

Key Forecasts

Denmark

  • ...

Infrastructure

Finland Infrastructure

BMI View:

BMI View: A healthy transport and utility infrastructure project pipeline will not be enough to generate a strong long-term growth outlook for the industry. Public spending, although committed, will be difficult to realise amid an economic picture greatly impacted by a muted eurozone recovery and Russia's ongoing economic malaise. We forecast a slight return to construction industry growth in 2016 of 0.4% and a sector value of EUR11.2bn (USD12.0bn).

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • Construction industry growth will turn positive in 2016 after four years of contraction. Annual average growth over the next decade to 2025 will be a...

Medical Devices

Finland Medical Devices

BMI View:

BMI View: We forecast a modest 2014-2019 US dollar CAGR of 1.8%, which is below the Western Europe average. Although the large and expanding elderly population would indicate a steady rise in medical device consumption, increasing financial pressures on the healthcare system and the relatively small population overall are likely to constrain future growth rates. While Finland has a history of high quality domestic production, the majority of output is exported leaving the domestic market heavily dependent on imported products.

Projected Medical Device Market, 2014-2019
Total (USDmn) Per Capita (USD) Total (...

Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Finland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

BMI View:

BMI View: Innovative drugmaker revenues will remain under threat in Finland. The Finnish government is committed to containing rising healthcare costs and despite company concerns regarding falling drug prices, we believe the success of the annual decline in reimbursed medicine prices will result in the government maintaining the generic reference pricing system that is in place. Amplifying price pressures on patented medicines are the unsystematic price cuts on medicines, which are more disruptive to drugmaker revenue streams in Finland.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: EUR2.85bn (USD3.82bn) in 2014 to EUR2.93bn (USD3.23bn) in 2015;+3.0% in local currency terms and -15.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter...

Power

Finland Power

BMI View:

BMI View: This quarter our fundamental assumptions for Denmark, Finland and Sweden continue to be relevant. Taking into account relatively positive macroeconomic expectations for the Nordic region as well as sector trends, we continue to expect power consumption growth in 2016. Similarly, we maintain our long-held view that, while growth expectations in the region are improving, economic woes in the eurozone remain a major risk factor for the consumption and generation outlook of the three Nordic countries, as more regional instability ...

Renewables

Finland Renewables

BMI View:

BMI View: We hold a quite muted view across the Nordics for this quarter - with opaque policy environments emerging in Finland, Denmark and Sweden, as the new governments chart out new courses for their energy policy. As all the countries are aiming to curb costs in their non-hydro renewables sectors segments, we expect growth to slow significantly from the levels of the previous decade.

Renewables Headline Forecasts (Sweden 2014-2024)
2014e 2015f ...

Finland Renewables

BMI View:

BMI View: We maintain our relatively muted forecast for Finland's non-hydropower renewables segment this quarter, as mooted cuts to wind power in order to curb subsidy costs will lower the long-term attractiveness of the sector, while the expansion in the biomass-fired power generation has yet to pick up sufficient steam to boost renewables growth rates.

...
Renewables Headline Forecasts (Finland 2015-2021)
2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f

Telecommunications

Finland Telecommunications

BMI View:

BMI View : Finland has the highest penetration rate in Western Europe, as many users complement their usual mobile phone subscription with one specifically for mobile broadband. However, the Finnish government seeks to expedite the construction of communications and electricity networks with acts on shared construction and use of infrastructure. On November 12, the Finnish Ministry of Transport and Communications decided to implement an act covering sharing of networks and to revise the Information Society Code regarding networks within buildings. The acts are expected to be effective from July 1 2016. The government aims to slash the construction costs of high-speed broadband networks, by boosting collaboration among grid operators and to facilitate the development of digital services and functions.

...
Data Drives Demand
Mobile And 3G/4G Forecasts

Latest Finland Articles

  • BMI sees no evidence that the EC's harmonisation proposal for spectrum in t...

  • We have revised down our CME milk price forecast for 2016 and now see price...

  • We believe that there is currently disconnect between oil prices and fundam...

Latest Finland Blogs

  • A loss of competitiveness, stagnant growth prospects, and the likelihood of...

  • BMI Research regularly carries out scenario analysis of 'low probability-hi...

Latest Finland Podcasts

  • Europe's 20-year telecoms competition initiative has benefited million...

  • The operating environment for energy firms in the European Union is ex...

  • Microsoft's purchase of Nokia's mobile phone division signifies that t...

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