In-depth country-focused analysis on Ethiopia's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight


Our comprehensive assessment of Ethiopia's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Ethiopia, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Ethiopia's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Ethiopia before your competitors.

Country Risk

Ethiopia Country Risk

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  • Policy continuity has characterised the rule of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn, after taking over from the late Meles Zenawi in 2012, and this will remain the case following the 2015 general election. The governing Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front will retain control, but ethno-religious divisions and social unrest will become an increasing source of tension over the coming years.

  • Ethiopia will be among the fastest growing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa over the next few years, but growth will be slower than the double-digit rates experienced over the last decade. Heavy public investment into infrastructure and agriculture combined with an increasingly buoyant consumer segment will be the main drivers.

  • Inflation in Ethiopia has slowed markedly in recent years since reaching a peak of 40.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in August 2011 and we expect inflation to...

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Ethiopia Industry Coverage (3)


Ethiopia Agribusiness

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BMI View: Production prospects look broadly favourable for the Ethiopian agriculture sector over the long term. This will largely be due to more investment in the sector, along with higher incomes contributing to consumption growth. We believe the sugar sector has the most potential, as investments in new sugar refineries will make sugar one of the few reliable agricultural exports over the forecast period. In terms of grains, the country's food security is expected to remain relatively stable over the short term even though corn production declined year-on-year in 2014/15 due to low plantings. However, even with recent multinational interest in the country'...

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Ethiopia Infrastructure

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BMI View : Ethiopia's construction sector is forecasted to grow at 13.6% y-o-y in 2016 before moderating over our 10-year forecast. The main drivers of growth will be developments in critical infrastructure and expansion in the non-residential sector, both encouraging further foreign direct investment. Deterrents to entering the market will be security risks from neighbouring Somalia and Eritrea and the incidence of fraudulent deals between the public and private sectors.


  • We continue to forecast 13.6% real growth in Ethiopia's construction industry value in 2016, slowing to 11.9% on average over the next five years and 10.6% average over our full 10-year forecast period. Although investment will continue, we expect that the dual forces of key infrastructure already...

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Ethiopia Telecommunications

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The Q4 2015 East Africa report analyses latest industry, regulatory and macroeconomic developments within the telecommunications markets in Burundi, Ethiopia, Malawi, Rwanda, South Sudan and Sudan. These six markets represent challenging business dynamics, including low spending power, high infrastructure costs, rural populations with poor access and a politically volatile situation. The lack of competition in some cases coupled with unfavourable fiscal regimes will also pose a downside risk to market growth. The penetration rate and the share of 3G and 4G mobile market will remain along the lowest in the world.

Key Data

  • Average mobile market growth in the six countries in FY14 was 9.3%. Rwanda recorded one of the highest growth rates, estimated at 15.8. Average mobile penetration among the six...

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