Equatorial Guinea

In-depth country-focused analysis on Equatorial Guinea's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Equatorial Guinea

Our comprehensive assessment of Equatorial Guinea's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Equatorial Guinea, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Equatorial Guinea's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Equatorial Guinea before your competitors.

Country Risk

Equatorial Guinea Country Risk

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CORE VIEWS

  • Annual real GDP growth in Benin will average 5.0% between 2014 and 2023 as consumer spending increases and the country's political stability engenders elevated levels of fixed investment. Nevertheless, a sporadic electricity supply and reliance on cotton production will hold back the pace of economic development.

  • Benin's political landscape shows little sign of fragility, and will remain one of the most stable, open and accountable in West Africa in the years ahead, enjoined by a free press and a multitude of political parties. Nevertheless, the country faces challenges in the long term such as an overspill of violence from piracy and terrorist activity in the region, and the potential for tribal/ethnic schisms to open.

KEY RISKS TO OUTLK

  • There have...

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Equatorial Guinea Country Risk

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CORE VIEWS

  • Equatorial Guinea faces a challenging decade as subdued global oil prices and declining domestic hydrocarbons production squeezes government revenues, crucial for supporting fixed investment. The authoritarian nature of the government and endemic corruption are likely to continue deterring Western fixed investment, while rampant poverty holds back private consumption.

  • The country also faces significant challenges over the coming decade to maintain political stability. While the autocratic government of President Obiang has effective control over the country's political institutions and civil society, extreme wealth inequality and high poverty levels elevate the risk of social unrest, especially in the event the 72-year old president passes away in office.

KEY RISKS TO OUTLK

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Equatorial Guinea Industry Coverage (1)

Oil & Gas

Equatorial Guinea Oil & Gas

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BMI View: Equatorial Guinea's oil output will continue to see marginal gains in 2015 on the back of several smaller projects. However, maturing fields and lack of new significant discoveries will continue to push the production volumes lower after 2015. Nonetheless, we note an upside risk to our forecast, due to increasing investor interest in West Africa's offshore potential, especially in the new lower oil price environment, as oil companies are starting to look for lower-risk and lower-cost ventures.

Headline Forecasts (Equatorial Guinea 2013-2019)
2013 ...

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