Our comprehensive assessment of Denmark's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Denmark, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Denmark's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Denmark before your competitors.
Denmark Country Risk
Economic growth in Denmark will remain strong as economic conditions in the eurozone improve and domestic demand benefits from ultra-loose monetary policy.
Lower interest rates for consumers will bolster disposable income for households.
Anti-immigration sentiment will dominate Denmark's political landscape long after the September general election.
Major Forecast Changes
We now forecast 1.4% and 1.6% real GDP growth in 2015 and 2016 respectively, from 1.5% for both years previously.
Risks To Outlook
Should markets resolve to keep testing the National Bank's determination to keep its peg to the euro in the event of renewed risk...
Denmark Industry Coverage (9)
Danish new vehicle sales raced ahead over H115, against a backdrop of low interest rates and a recovering economy. According to figures from the Danish Car Importers Association - De Danske Bilimportorer (DBI), new vehicle sales rose by 8.3% y-o-y, to 123,513 units. Given this strong start to the year, BMI thinks the time is right to make a slight upward adjustment to our full-year forecasts. We are now targeting 7% sales growth for 2015, with commercial vehicles (CVs) set to outperform passenger cars (PCs), although PCs will still account for the lion's share of new vehicle sales in Denmark.
Breaking down the headline figure for the January to July period, passenger car sales stood at 104,862 units (+6.1% y-o-y). LCV sales were up by 19.3% y-o-y, at 16,109 units. HCV sales were up by 53.8% y-o-y, at 2,381 units, with bus sales falling by 14% y-o-y, to 161 units. Total CV sales stood at 18,651 units for the...
Food & Drink
Denmark Food & Drink
BMI View: Boasting a consumer base of 25mn with some of the strongest purchasing power in the world and offering a favourable business and regulatory environment, the four Nordic markets potentially hold lots of attractive investment opportunities. That said, we note limited opportunities for growth as the economic and demographic outlook remains relatively grim and the food and drink markets are highly concentrated, thus presenting significant challenges for new entrants.
Food consumption (local currency) growth year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2015: +3.6%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2014-2019: +4.5%
BMI View : The insurance market in Denmark is very well developed, with both life and non-life insurance enjoying high rates of penetration and density. As a mature market, growth across most lines is expected to be slow throughout the forecast period and driven primarily by wider economic expansion in the country, though health insurance is expected to be the outperformer with more robust growth expected from 2016 onwards.
The Danish insurance sector will continue to outpace the country's GDP growth over the coming years as the domestic pension system underpins expansion in the sector. Danish insurers remain good stewards of capital as their asset base has grown faster than the new business they have undertaken over the past few years. The large size...
Denmark Medical Devices
BMI Industry View: Denmark represents a mature medical device market with above average per capita spending. The market is being constrained by slow economic growth, which is increasing pressure to scale back the country's generous welfare system. As such the market is only expected to show low growth with a US dollar CAGR of 1.9% forecast for the 2013-2018 period. Local production is focused on consumables and patient aids, primarily hearing aids, leaving the majority of the market heavily dependent on imports.
Headline Industry Forecasts
The medical device market is valued at USD1,587.3mn in 2013, equal to USD283 per capita. The market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 1.9% in US dollar terms and 3.8% in local currency terms over the 2013-2018 period to attain a value of USD1,740.2mn by 2018.
Medical device imports...
Oil & Gas
Denmark Oil & Gas
BMI View: We expect a partial, but temporary recovery in oil and gas volumes over the medium term, as small developments come online. Past 2019 however, production will resume to the downside. While the country should remain a net oil and gas exporter, exports will become increasingly thin by the end of our forecast period.
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
Denmark Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
BMI View: Improving economic conditions in Europe will ensure the continued strong growth of Denmark's economy. This will help offset the negative impact of drug patent expiration and price reductions in the medium-term. The country's aging population and relatively high per-capita spending will drive the demand for high-value pharmaceuticals over the longer-term. However, our outlook is dampened by the likelihood of further government cost-containment measures in the future in order to deal with spiralling healthcare costs.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: DKK20.87bn (USD3.75bn) in 2014 to DKK21.30bn (USD3.14bn) in 2015; +2.1% in local currency...
BMI View: Our fundamental assumptions for Denmark, Finland and Sweden continue to be relevant. We maintain our long-held view that, while growth expectations in the region are improving, economic woes in the eurozone remain a major risk factor for the consumption and generation outlook of the three Nordic countries, as more regional instability could undermine their economic activity. In terms of sector trends, we note Denmark appears to be losing its energy self-sufficient status...
BMI View: This quarter our projections for non-hydropower renewable energy generation in Denmark, Finland and Sweden remain largely unchanged, as our fundamental assumption for the Nordic markets considered in the report remain unvaried. Key projects in the region continue to progress in line with our expectations, with Denmark's progressive loss of its energy self-sufficient status likely to lead the country to a greater focus on the prompt development of renewables. We also note that Sweden's possible phase-out of nuclear energy could jeopardise the reliability of the system, while pushing the country towards a larger share of renewable generation. Meanwhile, Finland's continuous reliance on hydropower and nuclear energy works against...
BMI View: Encouraging higher spending from existing subscribers is the overall focus for operators in the Danish telecoms market. Across both mobile and wireline networks, operators seek less subscription growth and more revenue boosting from tying subscribers into longer contracts offering more services. This will be further boosted by the merger of TeliaSonera and Telenor 's operations in the country. We expect smaller operators to merge or be acquired as scale becomes increasingly important for operators to be able to negotiate the content available on their networks. In a market where operators are quick to upgrade their networks, content becomes a major factor in differentiating service offerings.
Fixed voice services...