Denmark

In-depth country-focused analysis on Denmark's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Denmark

Our comprehensive assessment of Denmark's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Denmark, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Denmark's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Denmark before your competitors.

Country Risk

Denmark Country Risk

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Core Views

  • Real GDP growth in Denmark will continue to be supported by a steady improvement in external demand. However, the forthcoming unwinding of the ultra-loose monetary policy by the central bank will chip away somewhat at the momentum behind the recovery in private consumption.

  • Denmark is poised for a period of unstable party politics with the new one-party minority government unlikely to stay in power for the duration of its term ending in 2019. The ruling centre-right Venstre party will have to seek support from either fellow right-wing parties or opposition leftist parties, making the passage of legislature a difficult and protracted process.

Major Forecast Changes

  • We have revised upward our real GDP growth forecast for Denmark - to 1.7% in 2015 (from 1.5%) and to 1.7% in...

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Denmark Industry Coverage (10)

Autos

Denmark Autos

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Danish new vehicle sales raced ahead over H115, against a backdrop of low interest rates and a recovering economy. According to figures from the Danish Car Importers Association - De Danske Bilimportorer (DBI), new vehicle sales rose by 8.3% y-o-y, to 123,513 units. Given this strong start to the year, BMI thinks the time is right to make a slight upward adjustment to our full-year forecasts. We are now targeting 7% sales growth for 2015, with commercial vehicles (CVs) set to outperform passenger cars (PCs), although PCs will still account for the lion's share of new vehicle sales in Denmark.

Breaking down the headline figure for the January to July period, passenger car sales stood at 104,862 units (+6.1% y-o-y). LCV sales were up by 19.3% y-o-y, at 16,109 units. HCV sales were up by 53.8% y-o-y, at 2,381 units, with bus sales falling by 14% y-o-y, to 161 units. Total CV sales stood at 18,651 units for the...

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Commercial Banking

Denmark Commercial Banking

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...
Commercial Banking Sector Indicators
Date Total assets Client loans Bond portfolio Other Liabilities and capital Capital Client deposits

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Food & Drink

Denmark Food & Drink

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BMI View: Boasting a consumer base of 25mn with some of the strongest purchasing power in the world and offering a favourable business and regulatory environment, the four Nordic markets could offer attractive investment opportunities. That said, there are limited opportunities for growth, as the economic and demographic outlook remains relatively grim. Moreover, the food and drink markets are highly concentrated, presenting significant challenges for new entrants.

Key Forecasts

Denmark

  • ...

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Insurance

Denmark Insurance

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BMI View : The insurance market in Denmark is very well developed, with both life and non-life insurance enjoying high rates of penetration and density. As a mature market, growth across most lines is expected to be slow throughout the forecast period and driven primarily by wider economic expansion in the country, though health insurance is expected to be the outperformer with more robust growth expected from 2016 onwards.

The Danish insurance sector will continue to outpace the country's GDP growth over the coming years as the domestic pension system underpins expansion in the sector. Danish insurers remain good stewards of capital as their asset base has grown faster than the new business they have undertaken over the past few years. The large size...

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Medical Devices

Denmark Medical Devices

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BMI Industry View: Denmark represents a mature medical device market with above average per capita spending. The market is being constrained by slow economic growth, which is increasing pressure to scale back the country's generous welfare system. As such the market is only expected to show low growth with a US dollar CAGR of 1.9% forecast for the 2013-2018 period. Local production is focused on consumables and patient aids, primarily hearing aids, leaving the majority of the market heavily dependent on imports.

Headline Industry Forecasts

  • The medical device market is valued at USD1,587.3mn in 2013, equal to USD283 per capita. The market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 1.9% in US dollar terms and 3.8% in local currency terms over the 2013-2018 period to attain a value of USD1,740.2mn by 2018.

  • Medical device imports...

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Oil & Gas

Denmark Oil & Gas

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BMI View: We expect a partial, but temporary recovery in oil and gas volumes over the medium term, as small developments come online. Past 2019 however, production will resume to the downside. While the country should remain a net oil and gas exporter throughout most of our forecast period, exports will become increasingly thin.

Headline Forecasts (Denmark 2013-2019)
2013e 2014e 2015f...

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Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Denmark Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

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BMI View: Improving economic conditions in Europe will ensure the continued strong growth of Denmark's economy. This will help offset the negative impact of drug patent expiration and price reductions in the medium-term. The country's aging population and relatively high per-capita spending will drive the demand for high-value pharmaceuticals over the longer-term. However, our outlook is dampened by the likelihood of further government cost-containment measures in the future in order to deal with spiralling healthcare costs.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: DKK20.87bn (USD3.75bn) in 2014 to DKK21.30bn (USD3.14bn) in 2015; +2.1% in local currency...

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Power

Denmark Power

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BMI View: This quarter we have revised down our wind power forecast for Sweden to take into account policy uncertainty over the country's regulatory framework. This in turn has marginally altered downwards the overall forecasts for the country. That said, our fundamental assumptions for Denmark, Finland and Sweden continue to be relevant. We maintain our long-held view that, while growth expectations in the region are improving,...

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Renewables

Denmark Renewables

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BMI View: We have revised down our forecasts for non-hydro renewables power in the Nordics this quarter, as Denmark will face problems in integrating additional intermittent wind power to the grid due to its saturated power market and high wind penetration, Swedish energy policy uncertainty mutes investor interest in country's sector and Finland suffers from a relatively weak macroeconomic outlook whilst continuing to aim for a nuclear expansion. We highlight that there are upside risks to our muted growth forecasts in all markets, as better interconnections capacity coupled with a smarter power grid will enable...

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Telecommunications

Denmark Telecommunications

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BMI View: Encouraging higher spending from existing subscribers is the overall focus for operators in the Danish telecoms market. Across both mobile and wireline networks, operators seek less subscription growth and more revenue boosting from tying subscribers into longer contracts offering more services. This will be further boosted by the merger of TeliaSonera and Telenor 's operations in the country. We expect smaller operators to merge or be acquired as scale becomes increasingly important for operators to be able to negotiate the content available on their networks. In a market where operators are quick to upgrade their networks, content becomes a major factor in differentiating service offerings.

Key Data

  • Fixed voice services...

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