Content type

Inflation, Headwinds To Policy Formation And Regional Tensions Pose Risks To Cypriot Political Environment

Country Risk / Cyprus / Wed 06 Apr, 2022

Key View

  • With elevated inflation facing considerable upside risks, we at Fitch Solutions have lowered Cyprus’ score in the ‘social stability’ component of our Short-Term Political Risk Index (STPRI) from 67.5 to 62.5, thereby reducing the oval score from 57.1 to 55.8.
  • Ahead of presidential elections in February 2023, we maintain Cyprus'
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Economic Growth In Cyprus To Moderate In 2022

Country Risk / Cyprus / Thu 13 Jan, 2022

Key View

  • After the 5.1% real GDP contraction in 2020 we at Fitch Solutions have raised our estimate for Cyprus' 2021 growth to 5.0% (up from 4.0% previously), with a rebounding tourism industry having driven the economic recovery.

  • We forecast real GDP growth decelerating to 4.1% in 2022, as less favourable base effects aand

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Cyprus' Economic Recovery On A Steady Path

Country Risk / Cyprus / Wed 29 Sep, 2021

Key View

  • We at Fitch Solutions maintain our outlook for Cyprus’ economy, noting some lingering challenges from Covid-19.
  • While sentiment continues to show signs of a recovery, the pace is slowing in the near term, and the tourism sector remains hindered by travel restrictions.
  • We forecast the economy to grow 4.0% in 2021 and to 4.1% in
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Cypriot Economic Outlook Stronger On Vaccination Progress

Country Risk / Cyprus / Thu 01 Jul, 2021

Key View

  • We at Fitch Solutions have revised up our growth forecasts for Cyprus’ real GDP, from 3.0% and 3.7% in 2021 and 2022 to 4.0% and 4.1%.
  • Easing domestic activity restrictions on the back of a ramped-up vaccination campaign and rebounding confidence will support a pick-up in household consumption and a modest rebound in investment.
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Cypriot Economy To Recover Gradually In 2021

Country Risk / Cyprus / Thu 31 Dec, 2020

Key View

  • We at Fitch Solutions maintain our forecast for the Cypriot economy to contract 5.9% in 2020, but have revised up our 2021 growth outlook from 3.9% to 4.2%.
  • A domestic resurgence in Covid-19 cases in Q420 will weigh on activity during the quarter, with lockdown measures across Europe simultaneously weighing on prospects of an
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Cypriot Economy To Slow But Fiscal Policy To Remain Prudent

Country Risk / Cyprus / Tue 07 Jan, 2020

Key View

  • We at Fitch Solutions have revised our 2019 and 2020 growth forecasts to 3.3% and 2.8% respectively, from 3.0% and 2.5% previously, as the investment outlook improves.
  • However, as economic growth slows, government prudence will limit the scope for fiscal policy as a stimulus tool.
  • Risks to the fiscal and economic outlook stem from
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Cypriot Economy To Slow Below Consensus Expectations

Corporates / Cyprus / Mon 30 Sep, 2019

Key View

  • We at Fitch Solutions maintain our forecast for a sharper slowdown in the Cypriot economy over the coming quarters, as external demand softens and domestic vulnerabilities remain unresolved.
  • Key to our more bearish-than-consensus take on the Cypriot economy is our view that European growth, particularly in the eurozone and the UK
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Unlikely Progression With Cyprus Reunification In 2019

Country Risk / Cyprus / Wed 03 Oct, 2018

Key View

  • The potential for progress towards the reunification of Cyprus will be slim in 2019, as domestic issues take precedence in both Greece and Turkey.
  • Rising nationalism in Turkey and a potential change of Greek government in 2019 could also reduce cooperation from either side.
  • As such, tensions could quickly escalate given the Turkish
Read More
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