Cuba

In-depth country-focused analysis on Cuba's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Cuba

Our comprehensive assessment of Cuba's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Cuba, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Cuba's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Cuba before your competitors.

Country Risk

Cuba Country Risk

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Core Views

  • Bermuda's prolonged recession continued into 2014, and we now expect this economic contraction to continue over the coming years. We expect that an international crackdown on offshore financial centres such as Bermuda will lead to a decline in financial services activity, one of the key contributors to the island's economy. Although tourism will rise, it will not be enough to offset tempered insurance activities.

  • Bermuda's current account will remain in surplus over the course of our 10-year forecast period, though the surplus will decrease to 10.4% of GDP by 2024, down from 17.4% in 2014, in line with our projections for slowing exports of tourism services and secular decline in off-shore finance.

  • Despite poor growth prospects, Bermuda will remain politically stable over the next 10 years owing to the...

Cuba Country Risk

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Core Views:

  • Growth in the Dominican Republic will moderate amid declining gold output, but relatively robust private consumption and tourism will help sustain the economy.

  • Puerto Rico's economy will remain in recession in the next several years, as fiscal austerity and a restructuring of the territory's debt depress household and government consumption.

  • The Cuban economy holds immense potential given the island's large size and proximity to the lucrative US market. However, investment and growth will depend on political dynamics on both sides of the Florida Straits.

Major Forecast Changes:

  • We have delayed our expectations for the unification of Cuba's dual exchange rate regime, and we now expect it will take place by...

Cuba Industry Coverage (4)

Medical Devices

Cuba Medical Devices

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BMI View: We forecast that the small Cuban market will register moderate growth of 7.6% over the forecast period, supported by stronger economic growth. The market will rely on imports from mainly Europe and China, and increasingly from Japan. Post embargo opportunities for US medical device companies will be difficult, as a full repeal of sanctions will remain elusive. Opportunities remain for other foreign companies, particularly from the fellow communist China.

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Projected Medical Device Market, 2014-2019

Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Cuba Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

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BMI View: Cuba's strong healthcare and pharmaceutical sector will continue to gain international recognition. Medical tourism and innovative pharmaceutical products in Cuba will generate increasing investment interest as the country gradually reopens to the world.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: CUP1.43bn (USD1.43bn) in 2014 to CUP1.51bn (USD1.51bn) in 2015; +6.0% in local currency terms and US dollar terms. Forecasts have been maintained from Q415.

  • Healthcare: CUP7.22bn (USD7.22bn) in 2014 to CUP7.59bn (USD7.59bn) in 2015; +5.1% in local currency terms and US dollar terms. ...

Telecommunications

Cuba Telecommunications

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BMI View: Increasing competition in the Caribbean telecoms markets has potential to enhance innovation and improve customer choice. The announcement in May 2016 that Jamaica had launched a third mobile operator, increases the prospects of competition in that market. Jamaica's mobile market is currently a duopoly between Digicel and LIME. Although the arrival of a third mobile operator would help to shake up the Trinidad & Tobago mobile market, we still expect the process to take years to play out, as licence fees are agreed,...

Tourism

Cuba Tourism

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BMI View: Arrivals growth in the Caribbean will increase 4.5% in 2016, reflecting improved visitor numbers from Europe and North America. Puerto Rico, Cuba, Bonaire and Guyana are expecting the highest rate of arrivals growth, but all tourism markets except Belize will experience growth. However, the outbreak of the Zika virus from late 2015 could pose downside risks to 2016 arrivals forecasts.

We currently expect arrivals to the Caribbean to grow by 4.5% in 2016, to 42.3mn, reflecting a slight moderation from growth of 5.2% in 2015. We expect Puerto Rico, Cuba, Bonaire and Guyana to post the highest level of arrivals growth in 2016, at around 5....

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