In-depth country-focused analysis on Cuba's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight


Our comprehensive assessment of Cuba's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Cuba, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Cuba's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Cuba before your competitors.

Country Risk

Cuba Country Risk

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Core Views

  • Bermuda's prolonged recession continued into 2014, and we now expect this economic contraction to continue over the coming years. We expect that an international crackdown on offshore financial centres such as Bermuda will lead to a decline in financial services activity, one of the key contributors to the island's economy. Although tourism will rise, it will not be enough to offset tempered insurance activities.

  • Bermuda's current account will remain in surplus over the course of our 10-year forecast period, though the surplus will decrease to 10.4% of GDP by 2024, down from 17.4% in 2014, in line with our projections for slowing exports of tourism services and secular decline in off-shore finance.

  • Despite poor growth prospects, Bermuda will remain politically stable over the next 10 years owing to the...

Cuba Country Risk

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Core Views:

  • Growth in the Dominican Republic will moderate amid declining gold output, but relatively robust private consumption and tourism will help sustain the economy.

  • Puerto Rico's fiscal crisis will result in decreased government spending, lower household consumption, and increased emigration, all weighing on growth.

  • The Cuban economy holds immense potential given the island's large size and proximity to lucrative US markets. However, investment and growth will depend on political dynamics on both sides of the Florida Straits.

Major Forecast Changes:

  • Puerto Rico will undergo a painful internal devaluation, leading to the continuation of its recession over the next five years. This devaluation will see wages fall and lay-offs...

Cuba Industry Coverage (4)

Medical Devices

Cuba Medical Devices

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BMI View: We forecast that the small Cuban market will register moderate growth of 7.6% over the forecast period, supported by stronger economic growth. The market will rely on imports from mainly Europe and China, and increasingly from Japan. Post embargo opportunities for US medical device companies will be difficult, as a full repeal of sanctions will remain elusive. Opportunities remain for other foreign companies, particularly from the fellow communist China.

Projected Medical Device Market, 2014-2019

Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Cuba Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

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BMI View: Cuba's strong healthcare and pharmaceutical sector will continue to gain international recognition. Medical tourism and innovative pharmaceutical products in Cuba will generate increasing investment interest as the country gradually reopens to the world.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: CUP1.43bn (USD1.43bn) in 2014 to CUP1.51bn (USD1.51bn) in 2015; +6.0% in local currency terms and US dollar terms. Forecasts have been maintained from Q415.

  • Healthcare: CUP7.22bn (USD7.22bn) in 2014 to CUP7.59bn (USD7.59bn) in 2015; +5.1% in local currency terms and US dollar terms. ...


Cuba Telecommunications

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BMI View: Haiti and Cuba represent the largest organic growth opportunities in the region, as both are significantly underdeveloped compared to their peers. However, the risks associated with business in these two markets mean that a mobile subscription boom is far from likely.

Key Data

  • Cayman Islands has the highest mobile penetration, at 153.4% in 2015, while Cuba's penetration rate remains below the regional average, at 28.9%.

  • The number of mobile lines in Cuba reached the 3mn mark in Q215, up from 2.4mn lines at the start of 2015, according to data published by state-owned telecoms operator Empresa de Telecomunicaciones de Cuba (ETECSA). The increase was mainly owing to a promotion, called Si activas ganas 30, wherein new users obtained USD30 in credit for activating a...


Cuba Tourism

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BMI View: Arrivals growth in the Caribbean will pick up to 2.3% in 2016, reflecting improved visitor numbers from Europe and North America. The Dominican Republic, St Eustatius and Cuba are expecting the highest rate of arrivals growth, but all tourism markets will experience growth in 2016. However, the outbreak of the Zika virus from late 2015 could pose downside risks to 2016 arrivals forecasts.

We currently expect arrivals to the Caribbean to grow by 2.3% in 2016, to 33.5mn, reflecting an improvement from growth of only 0.6% in 2015. We expect the Dominican Republic, Cuba, St Eustatius and St Lucia to post the highest level of arrivals growth in 2016, at around 6%, but we note the positive sign that all Caribbean countries except St Vincent will experience arrivals growth in 2016, for the first time since the downturn....

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