Cuba

In-depth country-focused analysis on Cuba's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Cuba

Our comprehensive assessment of Cuba's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Cuba, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Cuba's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Cuba before your competitors.

Country Risk

Cuba Country Risk

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Core Views

  • Bermuda's prolonged recession continued into 2014, and we now expect this economic contraction to continue over the coming years. We expect that an international crackdown on offshore financial centres such as Bermuda will lead to a decline in financial services activity, one of the key contributors to the island's economy. Although tourism will rise, it will not be enough to offset tempered insurance activities.

  • Bermuda's current account will remain in surplus over the course of our 10-year forecast period, though the surplus will decrease to 10.4% of GDP by 2024, down from 17.4% in 2014, in line with our projections for slowing exports of tourism services and secular decline in off-shore finance.

  • Despite poor growth prospects, Bermuda will remain politically stable over the next 10 years owing to the...

Cuba Country Risk

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Core Views:

  • A gradually improving tourism sector and strong private consumption growth will help drive robust real GDP growth rates in the Dominican Republic in the coming years.

  • Puerto Rico will emerge from recession in 2016, but weak revenue generation means that additional debt defaults are on the cards.

  • Reforms in Cuba are headed in a positive direction, and investor interest is on the rise, however the country's transition towards a more market-oriented economy will be slow, as illustrated by the incremental steps towards abolishing the dual exchange rate regime.

Major Forecast Changes:

  • Buoyant government expenditure and solid private consumption, even despite slumping precious metals production, will support real GDP growth to a greater...

Cuba Industry Coverage (4)

Medical Devices

Cuba Medical Devices

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BMI View: We forecast that the small Cuban market will register moderate growth of 7.6% over the forecast period, supported by stronger economic growth. The market will rely on imports from mainly Europe and China, and increasingly from Japan. US suppliers cannot compete due to the US trade embargo, likely to remain in place until at least 2017, but opportunities will exist in a post-embargo era. Opportunities remain for other foreign companies,...

Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Cuba Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

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BMI View: Pharmaceutical investment and commercial opportunities in Cuba will increase at a slow pace over the forecast period. Cuba's biotechnology industry is set to benefit from the lifting of the US trade embargo, while the world-class Cuban medical research and manufacturing capacity will be further developed as the country's global reach and integration strengthens. Meanwhile, we highlight an expected rapid growth in the healthcare tourism industry in Cuba in the next years. However, we expect progress to be slow in...

Telecommunications

Cuba Telecommunications

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BMI View: Haiti and Cuba represent the largest organic growth opportunities in the region, as both are significantly underdeveloped compared to their peers. However, the risks associated with business in these two markets mean that a mobile subscription boom is far from likely.

Key Data

  • Cayman Islands has the highest mobile penetration, at 153.4% in 2015, while Cuba's penetration rate remains below the regional average, at 28.9%.

  • The number of mobile lines in Cuba reached the 3mn mark in Q215, up from 2.4mn lines at the start of 2015, according to data published by state-owned telecoms operator Empresa de Telecomunicaciones de Cuba (ETECSA). The increase was mainly owing to a promotion, called Si activas ganas 30, wherein new users obtained USD30 in credit for activating a...

Tourism

Cuba Tourism

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BMI View: Arrivals growth in the Caribbean will pick up to 2.3% in 2016, reflecting improved visitor numbers from Europe and North America. The Dominican Republic, St Eustatius and Cuba are expecting the highest rate of arrivals growth, but all tourism markets will experience growth in 2016. However, the outbreak of the Zika virus from late 2015 could pose downside risks to 2016 arrivals forecasts.

We currently expect arrivals to the Caribbean to grow by 2.3% in 2016, to 33.5mn, reflecting an improvement from growth of only 0.6% in 2015. We expect the Dominican Republic, Cuba, St Eustatius and St Lucia to post the highest level of arrivals growth in 2016, at around 6%, but we note the positive sign that all Caribbean countries except St Vincent will experience arrivals growth in 2016, for the first time since the downturn....

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