Cuba

In-depth country-focused analysis on Cuba's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Cuba

Our comprehensive assessment of Cuba's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Cuba, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Cuba's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Cuba before your competitors.

Country Risk

Cuba Country Risk

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Core Views:

  • We believe that rising gold production, a gradually improving tourism sector, and stronger private consumption growth will drive robust real GDP growth rates in the Dominican Republic in the coming years.

  • We expect Puerto Rico to remain in a recession through fiscal year 2015 amid high unemployment and weak investment, and see a high likelihood of debt restructuring by the commonwealth's electric power authority (PREPA) this year.

  • We expect the Cuban economy to accelerate in the coming years, on the back of the government's drive to attract greater levels of investment, and on continued expansion of the consumer sector. This will help to offset weakness in the export sector, and rising demand for imports. 

Major Forecast Changes:

  • We...

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Cuba Country Risk

BMI View:

Core Views:

  • We believe that rising gold production, a gradually improving tourism sector, and stronger private consumption growth will drive robust real GDP growth rates in the Dominican Republic in the coming years.

  • We expect Puerto Rico to remain in a recession through fiscal year 2015 amid high unemployment and weak investment, and see a high likelihood of debt restructuring by the commonwealth's electric power authority (PREPA) in 2015.

  • An agreement struck between the US and Cuba involving the release of prisoners held on both sides is the first major diplomatic breakthrough in the diplomatic relationship between the two countries in generations, and will have far-reaching impacts with regards to the economic and political future of the island nation.

Major Forecast Changes...

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Cuba Industry Coverage (4)

Medical Devices

Cuba Medical Devices

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BMI Industry View: We forecast that the Cuban medical device market will register the third lowest 2013-2018 CAGR in the Americas region. The market, which is the smallest in the region, remains reliant on imports from mainly China and Europe. US suppliers cannot compete due to the US economic embargo but opportunities will exist in a post-embargo era. Opportunities remain for other foreign medical device companies, particularly from the fellow communist China.

Headline Industry Forecasts

  • We forecast that the Cuban market...

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Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Cuba Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

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BMI View: A new focus on the improvement of global trade ties along with economic liberalisation, albeit slow, will ensure Cuba's healthcare and pharmaceutical markets continue their positive growth trajectory over the long-term. Initial steps toward US cooperation with the island's pharmaceutical sector and Japanese investment in Cuba's healthcare system underscore the significant progress Cuba has achieved in recent years. Therefore, Cuba will continue to offer unique commercial opportunities to foreign companies who will benefit from the country's significant offering of innovative medicines.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: CUP1.43bn (USD1.43bn) in 2014 to CUP1.51bn (USD1....

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Telecommunications

Cuba Telecommunications

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BMI View: Our expectation for major changes in the Caribbean has already begun to play out, with the news that CWC will need to sell its 49% stake in operator Telecommunications Services of Trinidad and Tobago (TSTT). This means the market is looking at a significant shake-up, one of many that will take place in the region. The CWC acquisition of Columbus International will have a far-reaching regional impact in the broadband internet and pay-TV markets, which remain underdeveloped and ripe for growth and is already affecting regulatory environments in other markets. In response to the acquisition we expect acquisition...

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Tourism

Cuba Tourism

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BMI View: The ongoing economic uptick in the US will translate into rising departures to the Caribbean in 2015, with St Lucia, St Eustatius, the Cayman Islands and Cuba set to perform particularly well. We see particular opportunities in Cuba, with the US-Cuba diplomatic rapprochement boosting prospects for a relaxation of the bilateral tourist regime.

We forecast mixed fortunes for the Caribbean in 2015, with most islands seeing growth in tourist arrivals but a few registering declines. The latter include Barbados (0.6%), Bonaire (6.1%), the Dominican Republic (1.5%) and St Vincent (1.6%). We believe that these declines reflect the drop of 1.2% in arrivals from Europe in 2015, with these economies usually registering strong arrivals from Europe. However, overall the Caribbean will see a net increase in tourist arrivals in 2015, as improving consumer confidence in the US leads more US tourists to visit the region,...

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