Cuba
In-depth country-focused analysis on Cuba's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Our comprehensive assessment of Cuba's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Cuba, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Cuba's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Cuba before your competitors.

Country Risk

Cuba Country Risk

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Core Views:

  • We believe that rising gold production, a gradually improving tourism sector, and stronger private consumption growth will drive robust real GDP growth rates in the Dominican Republic in the coming years.

  • We expect Puerto Rico to remain in a recession through fiscal year 2015 amid high unemployment and weak investment, and see a high likelihood of debt restructuring by the commonwealth's electric power authority (PREPA) this year.

  • We expect the Cuban economy to accelerate in the coming years, on the back of the government's drive to attract greater levels of investment, and on continued expansion of the consumer sector. This will help to offset weakness in the export sector, and rising demand for imports. 

Major Forecast Changes:

  • We...

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Cuba Country Risk

BMI View:

Core Views:

  • We believe that rising gold production, a gradually improving tourism sector, and stronger private consumption growth will drive robust real GDP growth rates in the Dominican Republic in the coming years.

  • We expect Puerto Rico to remain in a recession through fiscal year 2015 amid high unemployment and weak investment, and see a high likelihood of debt restructuring by the commonwealth's electric power authority (PREPA) in 2015.

  • An agreement struck between the US and Cuba involving the release of prisoners held on both sides is the first major diplomatic breakthrough in the diplomatic relationship between the two countries in generations, and will have far-reaching impacts with regards to the economic and political future of the island nation.

Major Forecast Changes...

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Cuba Industry Coverage (4)

Medical Devices

Cuba Medical Devices

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BMI Industry View: The Cuban medical device market is the smallest in the Americas region and is projected to register the third lowest 2013-2018 CAGR in the region. The market is reliant on imports from mainly China and Europe. US suppliers cannot compete due to the US economic embargo but opportunities might exist in a post-embargo era. Imports were inflated between 2004 and...

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Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Cuba Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

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BMI View: With its historically strong commitment to the pharmaceutical sector, the Cuban government will continue to invest in pharmacological and healthcare developments over the long term. Recent developments in vaccine discoveries, as well as multinational agreements on medicine commercialisation, have solidified Cuba's trajectory for further medical innovation. Therefore, Cuba will continue to offer profitable opportunities to foreign investors.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: CUP1.35bn (USD1.35bn) in 2013...

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Telecommunications

Cuba Telecommunications

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BMI View: 2015 seems poised to be a big year for the Caribbean, with a number of major developments that could transform the telecom industries in a number of markets. The CWC acquisition of Columbus International will have a far-reaching regional impact in the broadband internet and pay-TV markets, which remain underdeveloped and ripe for growth. New players are expected in the Bahamas and Trinidad & Tobago, and new regulators in Puerto Rico, Jamaica, Barbados and Haiti could lead to huge improvements in the business environment. Agreements between the US and Cuba have shocked the world. Cuba represents the most attractive market in the Caribbean in terms of total size and growth opportunities, however, we don't expect to see this play out. Nonetheless, there will be massive interest from lots of international players....

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Tourism

Cuba Tourism

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BMI View: The Caribbean region is returning to sustained growth, with all countries expecting tourist arrivals to increase in 2015 and 2016. However, growth is expected to remain below pre-2007 levels, with regional arrivals now increasing at an average of about 3% annually. Nonetheless, we expect that improving growth prospects will encourage greater investment in the region, particularly in the hotel sector.

Our tourism report for the Caribbean considers the impact of ongoing global economic uncertainty on the Caribbean tourism industry and how the region's fiscal issues are affecting tourism arrivals. Following the decline of the financial services industry after the economic downturn hit in 2007, tourism has increased in...

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