Cote d`Ivoire

In-depth country-focused analysis on Cote d'Ivoire's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Cote d`Ivoire

Our comprehensive assessment of Cote d'Ivoire's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Cote d'Ivoire, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Cote d'Ivoire's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Cote d'Ivoire before your competitors.

Cote d`Ivoire Country Risk

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Core Views:

  • Even with the post-conflict peace dividend waning, real GDP growth in Cote d'Ivoire will continue to fire on all cylinders in the coming years. Growth in 2017 will be driven by both private and public investment, coming on the back of rising consumer spending power, a strengthening business environment and rising commodity production. We forecast an 8.4% real GDP expansion in 2017, which will represent the highest growth rate in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) according to our forecasts.

  • Cote d'Ivoire's government will prevent its fiscal deficit from widening too far even as it increases spending, thanks to its progress in widening the tax base. Debt will remain at a manageable level through sensible borrowing practices, drawing from concessional and regional lenders rather than returning to international debt markets. This fiscal prudence means...

Cote d`Ivoire Operational Risk Coverage (9)

Cote d`Ivoire Operational Risk

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BMI View : Cote d'Ivoire offers a number of strategic operational advantages for businesses looking to invest in the region, including an increasingly investor-friendly business environment, a growing economy and a stable political environment, rendering it one of the most attractive investment hubs in the region. However, risks remain in the partiality of the judiciary, the limited availability of skilled labour, and a high prevalence of crime, which increase the difficulty of doing business in the country. Other notable threats include the limited availability of government healthcare resources, corruption and a high overall tax burden. As a result, Cote d'Ivoire receives a score of 38.9...

Cote d`Ivoire Crime & Security

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BMI View: Cote d'Ivoire's operating environment is threatened by high levels of crime and the growing risk of terrorism from Islamist organisations operating in the region. Businesses must incur costs associated with protection of their employees, while their physical and financial assets are at risk of being stolen or damaged, whether through piracy attacks on cargo or online financial fraud. Cote d'Ivoire receives a score of 28.5 out of 100 for Crime and Security Risk, putting it in 31st place out of 48 Sub-Saharan Africa states.

Crime Remains A High Threat
Cote d'Ivoire & SSA Regional Average - Crime & Security Scores

Cote d`Ivoire Labour Market

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BMI View: Cote d'Ivoire's labour market is not conducive to supporting the country's rapid economic growth. The population is young, highly urbanised and growing, but lacks the education and skills required by the economy, largely due to very low education participation rates across the board which have arisen from the country's recent violent history and prevalence of working children. Furthermore, labour is relatively expensive with high costs of employment and strict legislation governing the hiring of foreign workers, which erodes Cote d'Ivoire's competitiveness in comparison to regional peers. As a result, Cote d'Ivoire scores an unimpressive 37.5 out of 100, ranking the country in 26th place out of 48 Sub-Saharan African states.


Cote d`Ivoire Logistics

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BMI View : In a country whose rapidly expanding economy requires the efficient provision of utilities and transport infrastructure services, businesses will currently face moderate logistical risks. Generally, business operation will not be hampered by fuel and power outages. Key and growing sectors such as water-intensive industries and the e-commerce sector will find their commercial activities compromised by the extreme rainfall patterns that have caused floods and droughts in recent years, or by the current low availability of fixed line broadband infrastructure in Cote d'...

Cote d`Ivoire Trade & Investment

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BMI View : Investors in Côte d'Ivoire are able to take advantage of the country's return to political stability and economic growth thanks to President Alassane Ouattara's business friendly reforms. These include a new investment code which incentivises foreign investment, targeted infrastructure upgrading, and streamlining the country's commercial dispute resolution mechanisms. Equally, the country's expanding consumer class has access to credit facilities on account of the proliferation of mobile banking, thereby expanding the size of the domestic market. Even so, despite Côte d'Ivoire's strides forward, businesses must still negotiate a number of hurdles when conducting business in the country. Most notably, judges in the Ivoirian judicial system are political appointees and are renowned for their partiality when settling...

Cote d`Ivoire Industry Coverage (12)

Cote d`Ivoire Agribusiness

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BMI View: The Ivorian cocoa sector will post modest growth over the coming years. Sector reforms, including a minimum set price paid to farmers, will help production to improve. However, the sector will remain fragmented over the coming years, and reduced smuggling from Ghana will reduce total cocoa supply available in Cote d'Ivoire. The regional palm oil sector will face long-term structural challenges, but Cote d'Ivoire will see the some of the strongest growth in Sub-Saharan Africa and strengthen its position as a net palm oil exporter over...

Cote d`Ivoire Autos

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BMI View: The currency peg to the Euro will keep inflation and interest rates subdued in 2016 resulting in strong private consumption levels ,which will drive passenger vehicle sales. A sound business environment and an expansionary 2016 budget will ensure private and public investment into the infrastructure segment remains propped up. This will boost commercial vehicle sales over our 2016-2020 forecast period.

Consumption Levels Driving Passenger Vehicle Sales
Passenger Vehicle Sales

Cote d`Ivoire Food & Drink

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BMI View: We hold a positive consumer outlook for Cote d'Ivoire on the back of low inflation and strong economic growth - these factors will drive household spending growth throughout our forecast period. Sustained economic growth will support the rise of per capita income levels over the coming years, which will bode well for consumer-facing companies.

Food and Drink Spending

Cote d`Ivoire Infrastructure

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BMI View : Cote d'Ivoire's construction industry will record positive growth throughout our 10-year forecast period between 2016 and 2025 as the government directs substantial expenditure towards infrastructure development and private investment flows into the sector. The highest growth will be recorded between 2016 and 2018, as major transport and energy infrastructure developments are undertaken to boost Cote d'Ivoire's regional profile in West Africa.

Forecast & Industry Developments

  • We have maintained our construction industry forecast for 2016, projecting 9.2% real growth as the government directs significant capital...

Cote d`Ivoire Insurance

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BMI View: The insurance industry in Cote d'Ivoire is experiencing rapid growth, with both the life and non-life sectors developing quickly from a low base. Tailwinds for growth include a gradual improvement in household income rates, the development of a broader range of products being made available to potential consumers and the expansion of distribution channels which in the past have relied heavily upon brokers and agents. Structural challenges are significant, however, and include the impact of widespread poverty, limited formal employment and low life expectancy rates, which all serve to dampen demand. Despite these challenges, life and non-life premiums are forecast to grow steadily over the forecast period, reflecting wider economic growth, and Cote d'Ivoire is proving an increasingly attractive frontier market, particularly when considering the lack of...

Cote d`Ivoire Mining

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BMI View: West Africa's growth outlook will weaken on the back of continued mineral price weakness, inadequate infrastructure and the aftermath of the Ebola outbreak over the coming quarters. The region's long-term growth outlook remains promising due to countries' vast untapped mineral reserves, positive foreign investment outlook and infrastructure developments.

Select Countries - Mining Industry Forecast
2014e 2015f ...

Cote d`Ivoire Oil & Gas

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BMI View : Cote d'Ivoire's small oil production is set to see a small boost over the coming two years thanks to project expansions at its two main producing fields. Despite potential in its offshore, more exploration and development efforts will be needed should it maintain crude oil output levels past 2017. While gas production is rising slowly, it will be insufficient to meet rising demand. An LNG import option for gas-to-power projects could materialise over the coming years.

Headline Forecasts (Cote d'Ivoire 2014-2020)
2014e ...

Cote d`Ivoire Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

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BMI View: Cote d'Ivoire's pharmaceutical market will remain of little interest to multinational drugmakers over the coming years, with a lack of patent legislation and reimbursement regime deterring large-scale direct investment. Over the long-term, however, a rising non-communicable disease burden and evolving demographic profile will provide opportunities for the sale of higher-value medicines. Growth in the healthcare sector will be supported by a promising economic outlook, in addition to the universal healthcare scheme.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: XOF259.97bn (USD440mn) in 2015 to XOF277.03bn (USD450mn) in 2016; +6.6% in local currency terms and 2.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast ...

Cote d`Ivoire Power

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BMI View: Power generation in Cote d'Ivoire will grow at an annual average of 6.8% up to 2025 as the government invests in additional power projects on the back of high real GDP growth.Gas-fired output will remain the dominant source of electricity generationover our 10-year forecast period. Hydropower investment will remain limited due to vulnerability to droughts and government commitments to diversify the power sector.

Headline Power Forecasts (Cote dIvoire 2015-2021)
2015e 2016f ...

Cote d`Ivoire Telecommunications

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BMI View: The Q1 2016 West and Central Africa report analyses latest industry, regulatory and macroeconomic developments and trends in the telecommunications market in seven countries: Cameroon, Cote d' Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Gabon, Mali, Mauritania and Senegal. Strong growth over the past few years has resulted in more saturated markets, at least in terms of the number of mobile telephony subscriptions. However, there is considerable long term value to be gleaned from these markets and, moving towards 2019 and beyond, regional mobile operators will increasingly shift towards advanced data services to sustain and build on revenue generation. The efforts of operators will be complemented by the uptake of low-cost smartphones and mobile devices along with access to cheap and more reliable international bandwidth connectivity via submarine cables.

Regional Markets To Show Strong...

Cote d`Ivoire Telecommunications

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BMI View: We maintain our view that the telecommunications market in Cote d'Ivoire is in a state of flux, with the recent consolidation and new technologies on the horizon. New LTE licenses have been awarded and the government's consolidation through the revocation of the licences of the smaller players leaves market leaders Orange, MTN and Maroc Telecom free to create a more rational competitive landscape. The ...

Cote d`Ivoire Tourism

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