Cote d`Ivoire

In-depth country-focused analysis on Cote d'Ivoire's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Cote d`Ivoire

Our comprehensive assessment of Cote d'Ivoire's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Cote d'Ivoire, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Cote d'Ivoire's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Cote d'Ivoire before your competitors.

Country Risk

Cote d`Ivoire Country Risk

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Core Views:

  • In terms of real GDP growth, Cote d'Ivoire is BMI's pick of Sub-Saharan Africa. We forecast an expansion of 9.1% in 2015, followed by a further 9.0% in 2016, as effective management, business reforms, and increased stability encourage strong investment inflows. Our forecast is a moderate downgrade since our last quarterly report, when we projected growth of 9.4% - the figure the Ivorian authorities are currently predicting, according to an IMF report published on June 12. This is due to a more unpredictable political landscape, as an increasingly united opposition has made incumbent President Alassane Outarra's re-election in October 2015 less of a certainty than we had previously believed.

  • We forecast that Cote d'Ivoire's current account deficit will steadily widen over the next several years, as strong growth in imports...

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Cote d`Ivoire Operational Risk Coverage (9)

Cote d`Ivoire Operational Risk

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BMI View : Cote d'Ivoire offers a number of strategic operational advantages for businesses looking to invest in the region, including an increasingly investor-friendly business environment, a growing economy and a stable political environment, rendering it one of the most attractive investment hubs in the region. However, risks remain in the partiality of the judiciary, the limited availability of skilled labour, and a high prevalence of crime, which increase the difficulty of doing business in the country. Other notable threats include the limited availability of government healthcare resources, corruption and a high overall tax burden. As a result Cote d'Ivoire receives a score of 39.0 out of 100 in the BMI Operational Risk Index, ranking 13 out...

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Cote d`Ivoire Crime & Security

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Cote d'Ivoire's business environment is threatened by high levels of crime and the growing risk of terrorism from Islamist organisations operating in the region. Businesses must incur costs associated with protection of their employees, while their physical and financial assets are at risk of being stolen or damaged, whether through piracy attacks on cargo or online financial fraud. Cote d'Ivoire receives a score of 28.7 out of 100 for Crime and Security Risk, putting it in 30th place out of 48 states in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

The most pressing risks for companies operating in Cote d'Ivoire are associated with crime, which is specifically a concern for foreign employees. Petty theft and burglaries most commonly affect foreigners while incidences of violent crime often occur in the country's Northern border region. The situation is worsened by unreliable police and security forces who are poorly...

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Cote d`Ivoire Labour Market

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BMI View: Cote d'Ivoire's labour market cannot compete with its regional peers due to a general lack of education in the workforce, combined with poor public health and a residual hangover from a civil war that plagued the country from 2002-2004. Although Cote d'Ivoire has a favourable demographic situation, with 59% of the population under the age of 24, the country has proven incapable of turning its population into skilled workers, and we see no sign of this situation improving over the medium term. Taking these factors into consideration, BMI awards Cote d'Ivoire with a score of 37.5 out of 100, which places the country in 28th place out of 48 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), between Cape Verde and Zimbabwe.

Businesses in Cote d'Ivoire will benefit from a large availability of...

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Cote d`Ivoire Logistics

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BMI View : Cote d'Ivoire's supply chains suffer from insufficient regional linkages and stifling bureaucracy, which prevent the country from becoming a West African trade hub and damage its attractiveness for investors. Although Cote d'Ivoire has a relatively average trade bureaucracy by regional standards, the country underperforms in Trade Procedures and Governance due to elevated shipping costs and laborious bureaucracy, which translates into extended lead times for international shipments. Nevertheless, a growing telecommunications industry, abundant water resources, and extensive oil refining capabilities boost the country's overall competitiveness in the realm of Market Size and Utilities. Consequently, BMI awards Cote d&#...

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Cote d`Ivoire Trade & Investment

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BMI View : Investors in Côte d'Ivoire are able to take advantage of the country's return to political stability and economic growth thanks to President Alassane Ouattara's business friendly reforms. These include a new investment code which incentivises foreign investment, targeted infrastructure upgrading, and streamlining the country's commercial dispute resolution mechanisms. Equally, the country's expanding consumer class has access to credit facilities on account of the proliferation of mobile banking, thereby expanding the size of the domestic market. Even so, despite Côte d'Ivoire's strides forward, businesses must still negotiate a number of hurdles when conducting business in the country. Most notably, judges in the Ivoirian judicial system are political appointees and are renowned for their partiality when settling...

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Cote d`Ivoire Industry Coverage (6)

Autos

Cote d`Ivoire Autos

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According to Renault Group, total industry auto sales in Cote d'Ivoire rose 17.6% in 2014, to 7,558 units. As of June 2015, total autos sales came in at 4,710. We therefore maintain our 2015 sales forecast of 6.0%, which will see sales reach 8,011 units at the end of the year.

Cote d'Ivoire has suffered from chronic underinvestment following years of conflict and civil war. Its poor transport infrastructure, deteriorating road networks and high number of military checkpoints have had a negative impact on foreign investment.

However, the end of the post-electoral conflict provided an opportunity to push democratisation forward and in December 2011 parliamentary elections passed relatively smoothly.

Prior to the conflict of 2002, Cote d'Ivoire was a leading light in African business, with a stable economy and financial sector. It remains one of the...

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Food & Drink

Cote d`Ivoire Food & Drink

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BMI View: Cote d'Ivoire is among Sub-Saharan Africa's fastest-growing economies, supporting our view that the country's food, beverage and retail sectors have a very positive medium-term outlook. Over our five-year forecast period, an advantageous domestic demographic picture and the highly underdeveloped nature of the local market will leave tremendous room for growth.

Key Forecasts

  • 2015 total food consumption growth (local currency): +10.0%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2019: +10.0%.

  • 2015 per capita food consumption growth (local currency): +7.4%; CAGR to 2019: +7.6%

  • 2015 beer volume sales growth: +5...

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Infrastructure

Cote d`Ivoire Infrastructure

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BMI View : Between 2015 and 2019 we expect growth in Cote d'Ivoire's construction sector to average 8.2%, driven by major investments to develop the country's transport and power infrastructure. The biggest threat remains an uptick in political risk, especially in the run-up to the October 2015 elections, although a significant deterioration in the political climate is not our core view.

A number of megaprojects, in line with the country's USD22.8bn National Development Plan, mean significant investment is taking place in the country's infrastructure sector. Government revenue is expected to remain conducive...

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Mining

Cote d`Ivoire Mining

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BMI View: Over the coming quarters West Africa's growth outlook will be held down by continued mineral price weakness, inadequate infrastructure and the aftermath of the Ebola outbreak. The region's long-term growth outlook remains promising due to countries' vast untapped mineral reserves, positive foreign investment outlook and infrastructure developments.

  • Cote d'Ivoire - Cote d'Ivoire's gold production will experience solid growth due to new projects and low production cash costs. Cote d'Ivoire's main...

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Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Cote d`Ivoire Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

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BMI View: Pharmaceutical expenditure in Cote d'Ivoire will be driven by both strong private consumption growth, in addition to public spending, through the introduction of the universal health insurance scheme. Growth will be driven by generic medicine consumption given the ongoing low affordability levels and cost-containment measures.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: XOF241.6bn (USD494mn) in 2014 to XOF260.0bn (USD436mn) in 2015; +7.6% in local currency terms and -11.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast upgraded from Q315.

  • Healthcare: XOF948.7bn (USD1.94bn) in 2014 to XOF1,032.5bn (USD1.73bn) in 2015; +8.8% in local currency terms and -10.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with Q315.

...

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Telecommunications

Cote d`Ivoire Telecommunications

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BMI View: Our Q315 West and Central Africa report analyses latest industry, regulatory and macroeconomic developments in the telecoms markets of seven countries: Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Gabon, Mali, Mauritania and Senegal. Strong growth over the last decade will lead to more saturated market conditions towards the end of our forecast and operators will increasingly shift their resources towards advanced data services to sustain revenue growth. Their efforts will be complemented by the proliferation of low-cost smartphones and tablets as well as cheaper and more reliable access to international bandwidth connectivity via submarine cables. Despite this, regionally 3G/4G shares of the mobile markets will remain lower than that of the more advanced peers in Europe and Middle-East.

Key Data

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