Cote d`Ivoire

In-depth country-focused analysis on Cote d'Ivoire's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Cote d`Ivoire

Our comprehensive assessment of Cote d'Ivoire's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Cote d'Ivoire, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Cote d'Ivoire's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Cote d'Ivoire before your competitors.

Country Risk

Cote d`Ivoire Country Risk

BMI View:

Core Views:

  • Cote d'Ivoire remains our top Sub-Saharan African (SSA) growth pick in 2016, when the 8.7% real GDP expansion we anticipate will outstrip the 7.8% growth we predict in our second-placed growth market, Ethiopia. Cote d'Ivoire stands out as offering serious growth potential on an increasingly stable and diversified base. The country is generating major investor interest and has been a popular topic of discussion in BMI's meetings with clients over the past 12 months.

  • We project that Cote d'Ivoire's budget deficit will come in narrowly in 2016, despite an expansionary budget which is expected to see spending rise by over 11%. Strong economic growth and an increase in revenues will combine to ensure that the deficit does not become unmanageable, despite, at 3.4% of GDP, being wider than usual - the average deficit over the...

Cote d`Ivoire Operational Risk Coverage (9)

Cote d`Ivoire Operational Risk

BMI View:

BMI View : Cote d'Ivoire offers a number of strategic operational advantages for businesses looking to invest in the region, including an increasingly investor-friendly business environment, a growing economy and a stable political environment, rendering it one of the most attractive investment hubs in the region. However, risks remain in the partiality of the judiciary, the limited availability of skilled labour, and a high prevalence of crime, which increase the difficulty of doing business in the country. Other notable threats include the limited availability of government healthcare resources, corruption and a high overall tax burden. As a result, Cote d'Ivoire receives a score of 38.9...

Cote d`Ivoire Crime & Security

BMI View:

Cote d'Ivoire's operating environment is threatened by high levels of crime and the growing risk of terrorism from Islamist organisations operating in the region. Businesses must incur costs associated with protection of their employees, while their physical and financial assets are at risk of being stolen or damaged, whether through piracy attacks on cargo or online financial fraud. Cote d'Ivoire receives a score of 28.5 out of 100 for Crime and Security Risk, putting it in 31st place out of 48 Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) states.

Crime Remains A High Threat
Cote d'Ivoire & SSA Regional Average - Crime & Security Scores
...

Cote d`Ivoire Labour Market

BMI View:

BMI View: Cote d'Ivoire's labour market cannot compete with its regional peers due to a general lack of education in the workforce, combined with poor public health and a residual hangover from a civil war that plagued the country from 2002-2004. Although Cote d'Ivoire has a favourable demographic situation, with 59% of the population under the age of 24, the country has proven incapable of turning its population into skilled workers, and we see no sign of this situation improving over the medium term. Taking these factors into consideration, BMI awards Cote d'Ivoire a score of 37.5 out of 100, which places the country in 28th place out of 48 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, between Cape Verde and Zimbabwe.

Businesses in Cote d'Ivoire will...

Cote d`Ivoire Logistics

BMI View:

BMI View : Cote d'Ivoire's supply chains suffer from insufficient regional linkages and stifling bureaucracy, which prevent the country from becoming a West African trade hub and damage its attractiveness for investors. Although Cote d'Ivoire has a relatively average trade bureaucracy by regional standards, the country underperforms in Trade Procedures and Governance due to elevated shipping costs and laborious bureaucracy, which translates into extended lead times for international shipments. Nevertheless, a growing telecommunications industry, abundant water resources, and extensive oil refining capabilities boost the country's overall competitiveness in the realm of Market Size and Utilities. Consequently, BMI awards Cote d&#...

Cote d`Ivoire Trade & Investment

BMI View:

BMI View : Investors in Côte d'Ivoire are able to take advantage of the country's return to political stability and economic growth thanks to President Alassane Ouattara's business friendly reforms. These include a new investment code which incentivises foreign investment, targeted infrastructure upgrading, and streamlining the country's commercial dispute resolution mechanisms. Equally, the country's expanding consumer class has access to credit facilities on account of the proliferation of mobile banking, thereby expanding the size of the domestic market. Even so, despite Côte d'Ivoire's strides forward, businesses must still negotiate a number of hurdles when conducting business in the country. Most notably, judges in the Ivoirian judicial system are political appointees and are renowned for their partiality when settling...

Cote d`Ivoire Industry Coverage (6)

Autos

Cote d`Ivoire Autos

BMI View:

BMI View: The consumer is set to drive passenger vehicle sales to grow 10% in 2016 to 10,392 units as the economy's growth is spurred by growing private consumption in our 2016-2019 forecast period.

Passenger Vehicles Driving Sales
Cote d'Ivoire - Passenger Vehicle Sales
f = BMI forecast. Source: Renault, BMI
...
Key Views
* Passenger vehicles forecast to grow 10% in 2016 to 10,392 units.

Food & Drink

Cote d`Ivoire Food & Drink

BMI View:

BMI View: Cote d'Ivoire is among Sub-Saharan Africa's fastest-growing economies, supporting our positive long-term consumer outlook for the country. Combined with an advantageous demographic picture, household spending on food and drink will grow at a fast pace throughout our forecast period to 2019. The mass grocery retail sector will also expand rapidly, albeit from a very low base, as consumers gradually shift away from traditional stores in favour of modern retail formats.

Key Forecasts

  • 2015 total food consumption growth (local currency): +10.0%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2019: +10.0%.

  • 2015 beer volume sales growth: +5.7%; CAGR to 2019: +5.7%.

  • 2015...

Infrastructure

Cote d`Ivoire Infrastructure

BMI View:

BMI View : Cote d'Ivoire construction industry will average annual growth of 6.4% in real terms over our 10-year forecast period, driven primarily by investment flows into energy infrastructure and freight logistics capability. With the government committed to driving infrastructure development the peaceful re-election of President Alassane Outtara and subsequent political stability will further the market's regional outperformance.

Forecast

  • We are forecasting 9.2% real growth over 2016, 7.3% over the next five years and 6.4% over our full 10-year forecast period. The key drivers of investment will come from expansion in the power sector and improvements to freight logistics infrastructure.

  • Cote d'Ivoire has had its attractiveness...

Mining

Cote d`Ivoire Mining

BMI View:

BMI View: West Africa's growth outlook will weaken on the back of continued mineral price weakness, inadequate infrastructure and the aftermath of the Ebola outbreak over the coming quarters. The region's long-term growth outlook remains promising due to countries' vast untapped mineral reserves, positive foreign investment outlook and infrastructure developments.

Select Countries - Mining Industry Forecast
2014e 2015f ...

Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Cote d`Ivoire Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

BMI View:

BMI View: Cote d'Ivoire's pharmaceutical market will remain unattractive for multinational pharmaceutical companies. This is particularly true for innovative drugmakers as the country lacks patent legislation and a reimbursement regime. Furthermore, the country continues to suffer from political instability which will act as a strong deterrent for investment. Over the long term, however, a rising non-communicable disease burden will provide opportunities for the sale of higher-value drugs, Roche has already made inroads into the oncology drug market. Growth in the healthcare sector will be supported by progression towards an economic recovery, as well as the universal healthcare scheme launched in 2015.

Headline Expenditure...

Telecommunications

Cote d`Ivoire Telecommunications

BMI View:

BMI View: The Q1 2016 West and Central Africa report analyses latest industry, regulatory and macroeconomic developments and trends in the telecommunications market in seven countries: Cameroon, Cote d' Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Gabon, Mali, Mauritania and Senegal. Strong growth over the past few years has resulted in more saturated markets, at least in terms of the number of mobile telephony subscriptions. However, there is considerable long term value to be gleaned from these markets and, moving towards 2019 and beyond, regional mobile operators will increasingly shift towards advanced data services to sustain and build on revenue generation. The efforts of operators will be complemented by the uptake of low-cost smartphones and mobile devices along with access to cheap and more reliable international bandwidth connectivity via submarine cables.

Regional Markets To Show Strong...

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