Cote d`Ivoire

In-depth country-focused analysis on Cote d'Ivoire's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Cote d`Ivoire

Our comprehensive assessment of Cote d'Ivoire's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Cote d'Ivoire, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Cote d'Ivoire's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Cote d'Ivoire before your competitors.

Country Risk

Cote d`Ivoire Country Risk

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Core Views:

  • Cote d'Ivoire's economy will continue upon its rapid growth trajectory in 2015, enjoying impressive real growth of 9.4%. This is an upward revision from our previous projection of an 8.6% expansion over the year, thanks to a ramp-up in government spending - which will be supported by the launch of a new eurobond in February 2015 - and recently released quarterly data which shows that this has been translating into strong growth. Bipartisan support will ensure incumbent President Allassane Outtara's victory in October elections, and with it policy continuity.

  • Inflation in the eight UEMOA countries - which include Cote d'Ivoire - will remain sedate through 2015 thanks to benign food price growth and lower oil prices. Robust economic growth will keep the bloc from deflationary territory, however.

  • In...

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Cote d`Ivoire Operational Risk Coverage (9)

Cote d`Ivoire Operational Risk

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BMI View : Investors in Cote d'Ivoire are able to take advantage of the country's return to political stability and economic growth thanks to President Alassane Ouattara's business friendly reforms. These include a new investment code which incentivises foreign investment, targeted infrastructure upgrading, and streamlining the country's commercial dispute resolution mechanisms. Equally, the country's expanding consumer class has access to credit facilities on account of the proliferation of mobile banking, thereby expanding the size of the domestic market. Even so, despite Cote d'Ivoire's strides forward, businesses must still negotiate a number of hurdles when conducting business in the country. Most notably, judges in the Ivoirian judicial system are political appointees and are renowned for their...

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Cote d`Ivoire Crime & Security

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BMI View : Foreign business travellers, expatriates and tourists face pronounced Crime and Security Risks in Cote d'Ivoire. The most pressing threat to foreign businesses stems from the country's high crime rate, while the main terrorist risks emerge from groups which maintain allegiance to former President Laurent Gbagbo, though these groups are poorly organised and equipped. The country faces reduced risks from interstate conflict due to peaceful relations with neighbouring states. Overall, Cote d'Ivoire is a regional underperformer in the BMI Crime and Security Risk Index, with a score of 27.9 out of 100, which places the country 34th out of 48 ...

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Cote d`Ivoire Labour Market

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BMI View: Cote d'Ivoire's labour market cannot compete with its regional peers due to a general lack of education in the workforce, combined with poor public health and a residual hangover from a civil war that plagued the country from 2002-2004. Although Cote d'Ivoire has a favourable demographic situation, with 59% of the population under the age of 24, the country has proven incapable of turning its population into skilled workers, and we see no sign of this situation improving over the medium term. Taking these factors into consideration, BMI awards Cote d'Ivoire with a score of 37.5 out of 100, which places the country in 28th place out of 48 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), between Cape Verde and Zimbabwe.

Businesses in Cote d'Ivoire will benefit from a large availability of...

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Cote d`Ivoire Logistics

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BMI View : Cote d'Ivoire's supply chains suffer from insufficient regional linkages and stifling bureaucracy, which prevent the country from becoming a West African trade hub and damage its attractiveness for investors. Although Cote d'Ivoire has a relatively average trade bureaucracy by regional standards, the country underperforms in Trade Procedures and Governance due to elevated shipping costs and laborious bureaucracy, which translates into extended lead times for international shipments. Nevertheless, a growing telecommunications industry, abundant water resources, and extensive oil refining capabilities boost the country's overall competitiveness in the realm of Market Size and Utilities. Consequently, BMI awards Cote d&#...

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Cote d`Ivoire Trade & Investment

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BMI View : Investors in Côte d'Ivoire are able to take advantage of the country's return to political stability and economic growth thanks to President Alassane Ouattara's business friendly reforms. These include a new investment code which incentivises foreign investment, targeted infrastructure upgrading, and streamlining the country's commercial dispute resolution mechanisms. Equally, the country's expanding consumer class has access to credit facilities on account of the proliferation of mobile banking, thereby expanding the size of the domestic market. Even so, despite Côte d'Ivoire's strides forward, businesses must still negotiate a number of hurdles when conducting business in the country. Most notably, judges in the Ivoirian judicial system are political appointees and are renowned for their partiality when settling...

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Cote d`Ivoire Industry Coverage (6)

Autos

Cote d`Ivoire Autos

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According to Renault Group, total industry auto sales in Cote d'Ivoire rose 17.6% in 2014, to 7,558 units. As of February 2015, total autos sales came in at 1,506. We therefore maintain our 2015 sales forecast of 6.0%, which will see sales reach 8,011 units at the end of the year.

Cote d'Ivoire has suffered from chronic underinvestment following years of conflict and civil war. Its poor transport infrastructure, deteriorating road networks and high number of military checkpoints have had a negative impact on foreign investment.

However, the end of the post-electoral conflict provided an opportunity to push democratisation forward and in December 2011 parliamentary elections passed relatively smoothly.

Prior to the conflict of 2002, Cote d'Ivoire was a leading light in African business, with a stable economy and financial sector. It remains one of the...

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Food & Drink

Cote d`Ivoire Food & Drink

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BMI View: Cote d'Ivoire is among Sub-Saharan Africa's fastest-growing economies, supporting our view that the country's food, beverage and retail sectors have a very positive medium-term outlook. Over our five-year forecast period, an advantageous domestic demographic picture and the highly underdeveloped nature of the local market will leave tremendous room for growth.

Key Forecasts

  • 2015 total food consumption growth (local currency): +10.0%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2019: +10.0%.

  • 2015 per capita food consumption growth (local currency): +7.4%; CAGR to 2019: +7.6%

  • 2015 beer volume sales growth: +5...

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Infrastructure

Cote d`Ivoire Infrastructure

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BMI View : Newly revised data for Cote d'Ivoire's construction sector has changed the historic trend significantly, but forecasts remain relatively similar given the number of projects under way and in the pipeline. Between 2015 and 2020 we expect growth to average 7.8%, driven by major investments to develop the country's transport and power infrastructure. The biggest threat remains an uptick in political risk, but a significant deterioration in the political climate is not our core view.

A number of mega projects, in line with the country's USD22.8bn National Development Plan, mean that significant investment is taking place in the country's...

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Mining

Cote d`Ivoire Mining

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BMI View: West Africa's growth outlook will be dented by continued mineral price weakness, countries' inadequate infrastructure and the aftermath of the Ebola outbreak over the coming quarters. Miners operating within the region will suffer from declining profit margins and increasing difficulties in obtaining finance. However, the region's long-term growth outlook remains promising due to countries' vast untapped mineral reserves, positive foreign investment outlook and infrastructure developments.

Cote d'Ivoire - Cote d'Ivoire's gold production will experience solid growth due to new...

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Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Cote d`Ivoire Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

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BMI View: Implementation of Cote d'Ivoire's universal healthcare scheme will drive demand for prescription medicines, with generic drugmakers the likely beneficiaries. The government will increase its share of the total healthcare market over the long term. More hospitals and clinics will be opened, increasing access to medical services.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: XOF232.5bn (USD475mn) in 2014 to XOF250.1bn (USD420mn) in 2015; +7.6% in local currency terms and -11.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with our previous estimate in local currency terms, but downgraded in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: XOF948.7bn (USD1.94bn) in 2014 to XOF1,029.4bn (USD1.73bn) in 2015; +8.5% in local...

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Telecommunications

Cote d`Ivoire Telecommunications

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