Congo

In-depth country-focused analysis on Congo's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Congo

Our comprehensive assessment of Congo's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Congo, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Congo's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Congo before your competitors.

Country Risk

Congo Country Risk

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CORE VIEWS

  • Annual real GDP growth in Benin will average 5.2% between 2015 and 2024 as consumer spending increases and the country's political stability engenders elevated levels of fixed investment. Nevertheless, a sporadic electricity supply and reliance on cotton production will hold back the pace of economic development.

  • Benin's political landscape shows little sign of fragility, and will remain one of the most stable, open and accountable in West Africa in the years ahead, enjoined by a free press and a multitude of political parties. Nevertheless, the country faces challenges in the long term such as an overspill of violence from piracy and terrorist activity in the region, and the potential for tribal/ethnic schisms to open.

KEY...

Congo Country Risk

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  • Real GDP growth will remain robust in Congo-Brazzaville over the next two years, thanks to strong production growth in the oil sector offsetting much of the impact from sustained low prices. Both the budget and current account deficits will see significant improvements over this period on the back of increasing oil production.

  • The decision to bring forward the date of the Republic of Congo's presidential election makes a victory for incumbent president, Denis Sassou Nguesso, all but certain.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Congo-Brazzaville 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014e 2015e ...

Congo Industry Coverage (7)

Mining

Congo Mining

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BMI View: Central Africa is starting to leverage its considerable mineral wealth as mining activity expands across the region, in countries such as the DRC, Congo-Brazzaville and Cameroon. The region's considerable and largely untapped deposits and high grades are an attractive proposition for international mining group, particularly as other locations suffer falling grades and higher operating costs. We see significant potential for growth in the extraction of copper, gold, iron ore and other minerals, however, political risks and a lack of adequate infrastructure continue to present considerable challenges to operators in the region.

Striking While The Iron (Or Copper) Is Hot
DRC - Gold & Copper Output
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Congo Mining

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BMI View: The Republic of the Congo (Congo-Brazzaville)'s iron ore reserves offer the sector significant growth potential. Despite this, a contraction in global iron ore demand and prices will continue to curb the development of the sector as junior miners in particular struggle to maintain profitability.

Latest Developments & Structural Trends

  • Congo-Brazzaville's considerable iron ore reserves and the high-grade of its deposits have seen the country increasingly targeted by international investors in recent years, particularly as deteriorating iron ore prices squeezed the operating margins of many producers. Many of the country's deposits have an average grade of above 60%, compared with the global average of about 40-50%. The development of the Congo's mining sector will have significant macroeconomic...

Congo Mining

Oil & Gas

Congo Oil & Gas

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BMI View: Congo-Brazzaville's oil production and exports are expected to grow robustly until 2018 as the new production gradually comes online from a number of new fields. Risks to our forecasts lie to the upside as the lower price environment supports increased interest in the development of small, shallow water discoveries such as the Nene Marine field.

Headline Forecasts (Congo-Brazzaville 2014-2020)
2014e 2015e ...

Telecommunications

Congo Telecommunications

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BMI View: The Q1 2016 West and Central Africa report analyses latest industry, regulatory and macroeconomic developments and trends in the telecommunications market in seven countries: Cameroon, Cote d' Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Gabon, Mali, Mauritania and Senegal. Strong growth over the past few years has resulted in more saturated markets, at least in terms of the number of mobile telephony subscriptions. However, there is considerable long term value to be gleaned from these markets and, moving towards 2019 and beyond, regional mobile operators will increasingly shift towards advanced data services to sustain and build on revenue generation. The efforts of operators will be complemented by the uptake of low-cost smartphones and mobile devices along with access to cheap and more reliable international bandwidth connectivity via submarine cables.

Regional Markets To Show Strong...

Congo Telecommunications

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BMI View: Congo's mobile market contracted at the end of 2014, but BMI believes that this is primarily due to the merger of Airtel and Warid Telecom , that saw a large number of inactive prepaid subscriptions discounted. Although additional tax on mobile services in 2015 could have a negative impact on subscriber growth, BMI believes that over the forecast Congo's mobile market will grow an average 1.4% per annum.

Key Data

- The mobile market contracted by 1.4% y-o-y in Q414 to 4.595mn

- The fixed-line market grew by 1.15% in FY14 as underinvestment and limited network coverage continues to hold back growth.

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Congo Telecommunications

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The Democratic Republic of the Congo's mobile market continues to show excellent growth prospects and we expect this trend to be ongoing throughout our forecast period. Strong mobile subscriber uptake is partly due to an increase in competition, which has led to aggressive network development and service pricing strategies. BMI believes that the recent contraction in the size of the Congolese mobile customer base was largely due to inactive subscription discounting as the losses primarily came from the prepaid segment. However, we believe that limited subscriber uptake in rural areas means that subscriptions growth is likely to remain strong for the duration of our forecast period to 2020. Burundi's mobile market is viewed as one of the most competitive in the region, with four active mobile operators serving a population of around 10mn. Despite this, low income levels, low urbanisation rates and limited funds for network...

Latest Congo Articles

  • We have upgraded our oil price forecast this month with markets having pric...

  • In looking for new opportunities and the 'next' big consumer markets, we ha...

  • OPEC's June meeting will fail to deliver an oil production cap agreement. T...

Latest Congo Podcasts

  • Huge media attention and investment has made Sub-Saharan Africa's tele...

  • Despite another tough year for the global mining sector, BMI expects p...

  • The increasingly important economic relationship between Asia and Sub-...

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