Congo

In-depth country-focused analysis on Congo's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Congo

Our comprehensive assessment of Congo's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Congo, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Congo's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Congo before your competitors.

Country Risk

Congo Country Risk

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CORE VIEWS

  • Annual real GDP growth in Benin will average 5.2% between 2015 and 2024 as consumer spending increases and the country's political stability engenders elevated levels of fixed investment. Nevertheless, a sporadic electricity supply and reliance on cotton production will hold back the pace of economic development.

  • Benin's political landscape shows little sign of fragility, and will remain one of the most stable, open and accountable in West Africa in the years ahead, enjoined by a free press and a multitude of political parties. Nevertheless, the country faces challenges in the long term such as an overspill of violence from piracy and terrorist activity in the region, and the potential for tribal/ethnic schisms to open.

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Congo Country Risk

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  • The Republic of Congo (Congo-Brazzaville) is set to be among the fastest-growing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over the coming five years, expanding at an average annual rate of 6.0% from 2016 through to 2020 .Despite this healthy outlook, the country's dependency on the oil sector, which accounts for around 70% of budget income and 80% of export revenues, means it cannot escape the negative short-term impact of the recent slump in prices. Indeed, we have lowered our forecast for growth in 2015 to 3.7%, from a previous 5.3%.

  • The Republic of Congo faces a period of political and social unrest as the debate over constitutional reform that would allow President Denis Sassou-Nguesso to extend his rule to over two decades becomes increasingly polarised. Despite the threat of violent protests in the coming months, we believe political instability will not deteriorate into a full-blown crisis.

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Congo Industry Coverage (4)

Mining

Congo Mining

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BMI View: Central Africa is starting to leverage its considerable mineral wealth as mining activity expands across the region, in countries such as the DRC, Congo-Brazzaville and Cameroon. The region's considerable and largely untapped deposits and high grades are an attractive proposition for international mining group, particularly as other locations suffer falling grades and higher operating costs. We see significant potential for growth in the extraction of copper, gold, iron ore and other minerals, however, political risks and a lack of adequate infrastructure continue to present considerable challenges to operators in the region.

Striking While the Iron (Or Copper) Is Hot
DRC - Gold And Copper Output
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Oil & Gas

Congo Oil & Gas

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BMI View: Congo-Brazzaville's oil production and exports are expected to double by 2018 as the new production gradually comes online from a number of new fields. Our bullish forecast faces a further upside risk as the lower price environment supports increased interest in the development of small, shallow water discoveries such as in Congo-Brazzaville. That said, the country's downstream sector is expected to remain underdeveloped and we forecast Congo-Brazzaville becoming a net importer of refined fuels already in 2017.

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Headline Forecasts (Congo-Brazzaville 2013-2019)
2013 2014e

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Telecommunications

Congo Telecommunications

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BMI View: Our Q315 West and Central Africa report analyses latest industry, regulatory and macroeconomic developments in the telecoms markets of seven countries: Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Gabon, Mali, Mauritania and Senegal. Strong growth over the last decade will lead to more saturated market conditions towards the end of our forecast and operators will increasingly shift their resources towards advanced data services to sustain revenue growth. Their efforts will be complemented by the proliferation of low-cost smartphones and tablets as well as cheaper and more reliable access to international bandwidth connectivity via submarine cables. Despite this, regionally 3G/4G shares of the mobile markets will remain lower than that of the more advanced peers in Europe and Middle-East.

Key Data

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Congo Telecommunications

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BMI View: Congo's mobile market contracted at the end of 2014, but BMI believes that this is primarily due to the merger of Airtel and Warid Telecom , that saw a large number of inactive prepaid subscriptions discounted. Although additional tax on mobile services in 2015 could have a negative impact on subscriber growth, BMI believes that over the forecast Congo's mobile market will grow an average 1.4% per annum.

Key Data

- The mobile market contracted by 1.4% y-o-y in Q414 to 4.595mn

- The fixed-line market grew by 1.15% in FY14 as underinvestment and limited network coverage continues to hold back growth.

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