Our comprehensive assessment of Congo's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Congo, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Congo's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Congo before your competitors.
Congo Country Risk
Annual real GDP growth in Benin will average 5.0% between 2014 and 2023 as consumer spending increases and the country's political stability engenders elevated levels of fixed investment. Nevertheless, a sporadic electricity supply and reliance on cotton production will hold back the pace of economic development.
Benin's political landscape shows little sign of fragility, and will remain one of the most stable, open and accountable in West Africa in the years ahead, enjoined by a free press and a multitude of political parties. Nevertheless, the country faces challenges in the long term such as an overspill of violence from piracy and terrorist activity in the region, and the potential for tribal/ethnic schisms to open.
KEY RISKS TO OUTLK
Congo Country Risk
The ruling Parti Congolais du Travail has used local elections to consolidate its authority. Political change is more likely to come from within the ruling party than from the country's fragmented opposition.
Lower iron ore prices will delay investment projects in the Republic of the Congo, while government spending cuts reduce infrastructure expenditure. Nevertheless, increasing oil output will keep headline real GDP growth among the fastest in the region.
Long Term Views
President Denis Sassou-Nguesso will reform his country's constitution in order to run for another term in elections scheduled for 2016. The move will prove controversial, raising political tensions in Congo-Brazzaville. Even so, we see little threat to the current government's control over the...
Congo Industry Coverage (4)
BMI View: Central Africa's mining sector is set to follow much of the continent by developing its substantial mineral wealth. The region is still far from achieving its full potential, but these recent developments could indicate a changing tide for these three countries and indicate that the mining sector is set for sustained lift-off. However, many of the issues that have held back the region from achieving its potential for much of its history remain. Political risk and a lack of adequate infrastructure are the most pressing concerns, and while there are some efforts to address these problems, a lot more needs to be done if the region is not going to be considered 'frontier' for many years to come.
|Significant Growth Ahead|
|DRC - Gold And Copper Output|
Oil & Gas
Congo Oil & Gas
BMI View: BMI has revised our oil production forecasts for the Congo Brazzaville heading into 2015, when we expect a near 30% uplift in crude production with the arrival of new offshore projects. In addition, news of a significant discovery by ENI near its Marine XII field in late 2014 provides additional possibility of a long-term swing to the upside for the country in the upstream sector. However, until the reserves are booked, our forecast still holds to a long-term production decline.
BMI View: Our Q115 West and Central Africa report analyses latest industry, regulatory and macroeconomic developments in the telecoms markets of seven countries: Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Gabon, Mali, Mauritania and Senegal. As mobile subscriptions growth slows down in these markets, operators will increasingly shift their resources towards advanced data services to sustain revenue growth. Their efforts will be complemented by the proliferation of low-cost smartphones and tablets as well as cheaper and more reliable access to international bandwidth connectivity via submarine cables.
The average mobile market growth for the seven countries in our coverage in Q314 was 4...