Cameroon

In-depth country-focused analysis on Cameroon's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Cameroon

Cameroon has a strong agricultural sector, with commercial cultivation of coffee, sugar, tobacco, bananas, cocoa, rubber and tea. Faltering oil production and a sharp decline in global crude oil prices will cause Cameroon's current account deficit to widen over the coming years. Instability may spread to the country’s economically dominant south as Nigeria-based Boko Haram continues to launch attacks in northern Cameroon.

We keep our clients informed of the latest market moves and political developments in Cameroon, as part of our 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' perspective. Clients also benefit from in-depth analysis on eight of Cameroon’s most important industries. We provide interactive data and forecasting alongside detailed and risk-assessed analysis from our results-proven research teams. Our aim is to keep you ahead of the curve, so you can feel confident doing business in Cameroon.

Country Risk

Cameroon Country Risk

BMI View:

Core Views

  • Economic expansion in Cameroon is accelerating, and we predict that real GDP grow will be 4.6% in 2014. The country's economy will outperform its Central African peers, averaging 4.8% growth between 2014 and 2018.

  • Faltering oil production and high import demand will cause Cameroon's current account deficit to widen to 6.0% in 2014. We expect the shortfall to remain relatively stable over the coming years.

  • High spending on capital projects will keep the country's fiscal deficit wide. The shortfall could expand rapidly if the government is unable to control spending on costly fuel subsidies.

  • The Banque des États de l'Afrique Centrale cut its core interest rate by 250 basis points to 3.25%. While we do not expect that the cut will have a significant impact on the regional economy, further loosening is likely in...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Cameroon Operational Risk Coverage (9)

Cameroon Operational Risk

BMI View:

BMI View: Businesses in Cameroon face a number of operational challenges as a result of the crime and security environment. Notable risks include high crime, a corrupt and unreliable police force and the prevalence of criminal gangs, with translates into high foreign worker vulnerability due to criminal preferences for targeting expatriates. Firms pay considerable sums for private security in order to reduce the likelihood of damaged or stolen goods and property, attacks on workers and other crimes. There are also growing terrorist threats from Nigerian based Islamic insurgent group Boko Haram, particularly in the north of the country, which have affected cross-border trade and created operational challenges for companies in insecure areas. Although there is a low risk for interstate conflict, instability along its borders has hurt firms by increasing the likelihood of violence or theft and by interrupting trade. These...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Cameroon Crime & Security

BMI View:

Businesses operating in Cameroon face a number of operational challenges due to the country's crime and security environment. Notable risks include high crime, a corrupt and unreliable police force, and a prevalence of criminal gangs, translating into high foreign worker vulnerability due to criminal preferences for targeting expatriates. Firms therefore pay considerable sums of money for private security in order to diminish the likelihood of damaged or stolen goods and property, attacks on workers, and other types of crime. Businesses also face a variety of terrorist threats, particularly in the northern part of the country, which has adversely affected cross-border trade and created operational challenges for companies in insecure areas. Although Cameroon has a low risk for interstate conflict, instability along its borders has also hurt firms by increasing the likelihood of violence or theft and by interrupting trade. These factors merited Cameroon a Crime and...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Cameroon Labour Market

BMI View:

There is a low level of risk for businesses in Cameroon's labour market. The country offers advantages such as a high literacy and numeracy rate compared with regional averages and an increasingly successful secondary and tertiary education system that produces more sophisticated and well-qualified workers. However, sources of risk persist in the form of low life expectancy - which limits worker productivity - and moderate costs of labour, with limited access to foreign workers. As a result, we award Cameroon a score of 41.7 out of 100 for Labour Market Risk, placing it eigth regionally, higher than Nigeria (10 th), Gabon (21 st), and the Republic of the Congo (28 th).

Arguably Cameroon's largest labour asset is its educational attainment, which has enabled the country to enjoy sustained improvements in both male and female literacy rates and acquire more sophisticated skills for local firms. Although Cameroon...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Cameroon Logistics

BMI View:

BMI View: Cameroon's location at the meeting of three trans-African highways, and its relatively good port sector, means the country has the potential to play a major regional logistics role. At the moment, however, supply chain efficiency is limited by the quality of the internal transport network, with unpaved roads and a lack of regional rail connections. The utilities infrastructure reflects Cameroon's status as a developing state, and investors should expect to encounter problems including low internet penetration rates and frequent power outages that inhibit business operations and slow trade flows. Long and difficult bureaucratic and customs procedures further limit speed of trading and increase import and export costs. We give Cameroon an overall score of 35.1 out of 100 for its Logistics Risk in our Logistics Risk Index, ranking it 20th out of 48 states in the region

...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Cameroon Trade & Investment

BMI View:

BMI View: Cameroon has one of the worst track records in the region for trade and investment risk. Corruption poses a major obstacle to foreign investment and participation in the economy by lowering the accountability and impartiality of the judicial system, incurring adverse consequences for important procedures such as the filing and paying of taxes, the resolution of investment and property disputes, and the registration of property. Intellectual property rights are poorly enforced, increasing the likelihood of financial losses due to copyright violations and piracy, while high trade barriers and inadequate regulatory frameworks slow growth in both the trade and financial sectors. Cameroon therefore receives a score of 29.5 out of 100 in our Trade and Investment Risk index, placing it 34 th regionally.

As an oil producer, Cameroon has been able to utilise its...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Cameroon Industry Coverage (8)

Agribusiness

Cameroon Agribusiness

Autos

Cameroon Autos

BMI View:

According to Renault Group, auto sales for the first two months of 2015 came in at 617 units, an increase of 7.9% year-on-year (y-o-y). As such, we maintain our growth forecast of 7.5% in 2015 (compared with 0.5% in 2014) on the back of stronger private consumption in Cameroon. Indeed, our Country Risk team forecasts real growth in private consumption to pick up to 6.5% in real terms in 2015 compared with our estimate of 5.3% in 2014. At the same time, the substantial decline of global crude oil prices since June 2014 and our Oil & Gas Team's forecast for Brent crude to remain subdued, trading in the USD40.0-65.0/bbl range in 2015 supports our optimistic forecast, as it represents a substantial tax cut for consumers. Low interest rates, which we expect to come in at 2.50% by end-2015, will marginally lend support to vehicle sales. Over the 2015-2019 period, we forecast auto sales to grow at an annual average of 7.1%, which will...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Food & Drink

Cameroon Food & Drink

BMI View:

BMI View: Despite lower oil prices, Cameroon's economy will sustain relatively stable economic growth, driven by a combination of consumer spending and rising investment spending by both the public and the private sectors. This bodes well for Cameroon's food and drink industry, which will benefit from rising private consumption levels as well as a favourable demographic situation. Coming from a relatively low base, a number of segments in the food and drink industry will experience strong growth rates to 2019, thus...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Infrastructure

Cameroon Infrastructure

BMI View:

BMI View: An excellent pipeline of projects spanning the power and transport segments supports our view of sustained growth in Cameroon's construction sector. We predict growth of 8.43% in 2015 and average annual growth of 8.15% over the forecast period to 2024. Funding is set to come from a combination of development funding, private investment and Chinese capital.

The limited reliance on government investment for project development will shield the construction sector from an expected economic slowdown over the next few years that is mainly related to falling government revenues as a result of lower commodity prices. We note rising risks from lower commodity prices, both to the country's fiscal position and fixed asset investment supporting natural resource extraction. Investment in Cameroon's iron ore resources has been a major driver of...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Mining

Cameroon Mining

BMI View:

BMI View: Central Africa's mining sector is set to follow much of the continent by developing its substantial mineral wealth. The region is still far from achieving its full potential, but these recent developments could indicate a changing tide for these three countries and indicate that the mining sector is set for sustained lift-off. However, many of the issues that have held back the region from achieving its potential for much of its history remain. Political risk and a lack of adequate infrastructure are the most pressing concerns, and while there are some efforts to address these problems, a lot more needs to be done if the region is not going to be considered 'frontier' for many years to come.

Significant Growth Ahead
DRC - Gold And Copper Output
...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Oil & Gas

Cameroon Oil & Gas

BMI View:

BMI View: Cameroon is a small producer of oil and a nascent gas producer. Oil production should slightly increase, after years of decline, with several small projects coming online. This is supported by the 2014 figures, which suggest that oil production in Cameroon increased 12%. BMI believes that Cameroon could stand to benefit from lower oil prices as oil companies refocus investments towards more proven offshore plays. However, declining oil revenues could weigh on downstream developments as the government struggles to finance large-scale projects such as Sonara refinery development. A changing economic environment has also seen some turbulence in ownership structures as Murphy exited Ntem concession and Bowleven ...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Cameroon Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

BMI View:

BMI View :

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: XAF170.33bn (USD348mn) in 2014 to XAF187.60bn (USD315mn) in 2015; +10.1% in local currency terms and -9.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter.

  • Healthcare: XAF802.48bn (USD1.64bn) in 2014 to XAF875.24bn (USD1.47bn) in 2015; +9.1% in local currency terms and -10.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from last quarter .

Risk/Reward Indices: In Q3 2015, Cameroon shifted...

To read the full article Register for Free or Login

Telecommunications

Cameroon Telecommunications

Latest Cameroon Articles

  • Many countries around the world are likely to faces succession crises over ...

  • The recent oil price rally has overshot the extent of the bullish shift in ...

  • We forecast global real GDP growth of 3.0% in 2015, a rise from the 2012-14...

Latest Cameroon Blogs

  • BMI Research has just published a special report, Top 10 Political Successi...

Latest Cameroon Podcasts