Bolivia

In-depth country-focused analysis on Bolivia’s economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Bolivia

Our comprehensive assessment of Bolivia's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Bolivia, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Bolivia’s industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Bolivia before your competitors.

Bolivia Industry Coverage (9)

Metals

Bolivia Metals

BMI View:

BMI View: We have increased our 2016 tin price forecast to USD16,500/tonne owing to a stabilisation in the Chinese economy over Q116 that has boosted all industrial metal prices significantly over January-April. While we expect consolidation over the remainder of 2016, tin prices will continue to recover beyond 2016 as the global market posts sustained market deficits and inventories dwindle.

Global - Tin Supply, Demand & Price Forecasts
2014 2015e 2016f ...

Bolivia Metals

BMI View:

BMI view: We have revised our aluminium price forecast from USD1,575/tonne to USD1,600/tonne in 2016, as the tightening market provided an earlier than expected floor in Q116. Aluminium prices will gradually edge higher as the global market moves into a deficit by 2018.

...
Global - Aluminium Supply, Demand & Price Forecasts
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f

Bolivia Metals

BMI View:

BMI View: Nickel prices will bottom in 2016 as weak production drags the global market into deficit. For instance, we expect Chinese imports of nickel to grow over the coming quarters. Prices will begin 2016 weaker than we had previously expected and we have thus revised down our 2016 average price forecast to USD9,000/tonne from USD10,500/tonne.

...
Global Nickel Forecasts
2013 2014 2015e

Bolivia Metals

BMI View:

BMI View: We have revised down our average copper price forecast for 2016 to USD4,900/tonne. We expect prices to find a floor over the first half of 2016, and begin to stabilise thereafter, supported by production cuts and modest consumption growth.

Global - Copper Supply, Demand & Price Forecasts
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f ...

Bolivia Metals

BMI View:

BMI View: We have raised our gold price forecast for 2016 to USD1,275/oz and have a new five-year price target of USD1,400/oz. We have turned more positive towards prices due to rising inflation pressures and our view that real rates will remain depressed in developed markets beyond 2016. A modest rise in prices will be insufficient to reverse the trend of weak mine investment and industry consolidation.

BMI Gold Forecasts
2014 2015 2016f ...

Bolivia Metals

BMI View:

BMI View: Global steel prices will remain subdued due to a persistent steel oversupply over the coming quarters. From 2017 onwards, steel prices will gradually edge higher as the global steel surplus will narrow due to Chinese supply moderation.

Steel Price Forecast
2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f...

Bolivia Metals

BMI View:

BMI View: We maintain our average zinc price forecast for 2016 of USD1,750/tonne. We expect zinc prices to reach a floor over the first half of 2016, and begin to stabilise thereafter, as production cuts shift the market to a deficit.

...
Global - Zinc Supply, Demand & Price Forecasts
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f

Bolivia Metals

BMI View:

BMI View: Lead prices will gradually edge higher as the global lead market will shift into deficit by 2017 as production growth will slow over the coming years.

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BMI Lead Price Forecast
Current* 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f

Oil & Gas

Bolivia Oil & Gas

BMI View:

BMI View : Upstream investment in Bolivia continues at steady levels, but weak reserves growth of both oil and gas persists, creating long-term uncertainty for production and exports. The fall in global oil prices has led to sharp reductions in earnings from oil-indexed gas sales to Argentina and Brazil, on whom Bolivia is entirely dependent for exports. Continued investment in projects to monetise domestic gas resources as through increased local consumption in the residential, power and industrial sectors could result in tightening of the supply-demand picture in the medium term.

Headline Forecasts (Bolivia 2014-2020)
2014 ...

Latest Bolivia Articles

  • With global growth continuing to stutter amid unconvincing growth performan...

  • A few key themes stand out when comparing BMI's forecasts against Bloomberg...

  • We have upgraded our oil price forecast this month with markets having pric...

Latest Bolivia Blogs

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