Articles

Glencore: Increasing Share Of Critical Minerals In Asset Portfolio

Mining / Global / Tue 05 Mar, 2024

Key View 

  • In January 2024, Congo-Brazzaville signed an USD850mn debt deal with Glencore for amounts loaned out in 2015 and 2016. The debt owed to Glencore was to be paid using future oil deliveries over a 5-year period but remains unpaid. The IMF approved funding of USD445mn to aid Congo-Brazzaville's declining economy in 2019. However, only
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Strong Indian GDP Data Belies Economic Slowdown

Country Risk / India / Mon 04 Mar, 2024

Key View

  • The economy grew by 8.4% y-o-y in Q4 2023 according to expenditure data but production data show a 6.5% rise in GDP instead.
  • We are therefore not convinced that activity picked up and are sticking to our narrative that the economy is set to slow over the coming quarters.
  • Prolonged Red Sea disruptions are a key downside risk to
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Turkiye GDP: Fiscal Policy Delays Recession

Country Risk / Turkey / Thu 29 Feb, 2024

Key View

  • According to GDP data released on February 29, Turkish economic growth accelerated from 0.3% q-o-q (6.1% y-o-y) in Q3 2024 to 1.0% q-o-q (4.0% y-o-y) in Q4 2023.
  • Despite this performance – which was stronger than we had expected – we still think that Turkiye’s economy will enter recession in Q2 2024, after local elections on March
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