Blog

Scenarios For Post-Election UK

May 7th is set to be a tight run election and the prospects for either Labour or the Conservatives gaining an outright majority are slim. With a plethora of smaller parties battling to play kingmaker, the make-up of any prospective coalition remains...

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Global Political Risks: Where Are The Positives?

On the surface, global political risks seem very high. Russia and the West are locked in a major proxy conflict in Ukraine, threatening to bring a mini-Cold War to Europe. There are four civil wars (Syria, Iraq, Libya, and Yemen) with varying...

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April Global Economic Outlook

We forecast global real GDP growth of 3.0% in 2015, a rise from the 2012-2014 average of 2.7%. However, this improvement will come with significant differentiation between economies. Most major emerging markets (EMs) and some key developed...

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Africa's Infra Market: Adjusting To Lower Commodity Prices

Current global economic conditions are weighing on Sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA) economic growth outlook, creating a ripple effect in the infrastructure sector. Previously investors were drawn to the region's resource profile and governments were able...

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The Impacts Of The Petrobras Scandal

On March 17, the Federal Police of Brazil formally opened  an investigation into what may prove to be the largest corruption scandal in Brazilian history. The alleged crimes implicate some of Brazil's most high-profile business leaders and...

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False Dawn For Oil Prices

Oil prices look on the verge of a short-term rally, and a decisive push by Brent above USD65.00/bbl would suggest additional gains in the coming weeks. However, speculative positioning has already shifted from a bearish to a bullish extreme,...

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Next US President To Be More Interventionist, Raising Geopolitical Tensions

The next US president is likely to adopt a more assertive military posture than that of the Obama administration. This will raise geopolitical tensions, as countries that have become accustomed to President Obama's relatively moderate approach, such...

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Iran-US Rapprochement: Historic Opportunities Beckon

The tentative rapprochement between Iran and the US, which began in the second half of 2013, has the potential to become a world-changing development, and unleash tremendous geopolitical and economic opportunities, if it is sustained. Tehran and...

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