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Key View

• The proposed reimbursement model will increase stockpile of antibiotics and reduce the risk of shortages in Sweden.
• We maintain our forecast for steady growth in pharmaceutical expenditure in Sweden in the near-term.
• Drugmakers operating in Sweden will see marginal financial gains from the state’s reimbursement model.

The proposed

Key View

• Trade disruptions in the Red Sea will negatively impact the chemical and pharmaceutical raw material sector.
• Dwindling pharmaceutical raw material supplies will force Egypt-based drugmakers to operate at lower capacity.
• In the near term, Egypt’s pharmaceutical market size will contract in USD terms, before restabilising in the

Commodity price movements over the past month have been relatively muted, despite widespread disruptions to trade flows through the Red Sea. Over recent months, in the wake of the Israel-Hamas war, the Houthis in Yemen have ramped up their attacks on merchant vessels in the area. Despite the presence of Operation Posterity Guardian (the maritime

Key View

• At its January 25 policy meeting, the Turkish Central Bank (CBRT) hiked its main policy rate by 250bps to 45.00%, which the CBRT confirmed was sufficiently high given the present inflationary backdrop.
• We maintain our view that the CBRT has been hiking rates as much as possible before the domestic economy weakens excessively, and the

The Latest: Effective from January 15 2024, the government of Cote d’Ivoire instituted a six month ban on the export of essential food products in order to maintain food security and address production shortfalls. The ban will also seek to protect consumers as expectations of increased food consumption during the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON)

Key View

• While Sri Lankan policymakers left their Standing Deposit Facility Rate on hold at 9.00% at their first meeting of the year, we think that they will restart their loosening cycle in Q2 2024.
• We expect that they will cut the rate to 7.00% by the end of the year. 
• Risks are weighted towards the rate remaining higher for longer. In

Key View

• Governments will accelerate efforts to regulate the use of artificial intelligence in healthcare following the WHO’s guidance for the safe use of large multi-modal models.
• Despite the guidance, we do not expect the use of LMMs to be globally widespread in the near to medium term.
• In the long term, we expect regulations regarding the

Key View

• Our core timeline for elections – required to be held by January 2025 - foresees the UK electorate heading to the polls in H2 2024, probably in October. However, we do not rule out elections being called earlier.
• We retain our long-held view that the Labour party will capitalise on their established poll lead, winning a majority in

Latest Development: The government of The Gambia has approved the sale of a 60% stake in the government-owned mobile operator Gamcel.

Forecast Implications: Operators in The Gambia are only just beginning to deploy 5G networks and services, and with Gamcel lagging in market share and advanced infrastructure it is imperative that the state-owned

Key View

• Forecasted exports and pharmaceutical sales in Kazakhstan are expected to increase in the short- to medium term.
• The increase in localised pharmaceutical production will reduce pharmaceutical security risks in Kazakhstan.
• We expect that Kazakhstan will become a regional hub of pharmaceutical production.

Forecasted exports and