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Key View

• In the event that the Israel-Hamas conflict escalates significantly, Russia is likely to emerge as the biggest beneficiary, as the West would be further distracted from Ukraine, and Russia’s economy would benefit from higher oil prices.
• The impact on Mainland China would be mixed, as Beijing may welcome the US’s distraction from

Key View

•  Malaysia’s real GDP growth accelerated from 2.9% y-o-y in Q223 to 3.3% in Q323, coming in above consensus estimates but below our forecasts.
• We expect the economic recovery over the coming quarters to be gradual due to the ongoing impact of weakening global demand and restrictive monetary conditions.
• Overall, we have revised

The Latest: On November 14 2023, the Vietnam-based online payment platform ZaloPay announced a partnership with the Indonesia-based Southeast Asian superapp Gojek to allow users to utilise ZaloPay for on-demand food delivery services from the GoFood service on the Gojek app. 

Implications: ZaloPay is one of the most popular e-payment

Key View

• The latest activity and survey data suggest that conditions in EMs remained tepid in Q3 2023. We expect that a slowdown in DMs will drag on EMs going into 2024.
• Indeed, while EM currencies briefly rallied following a dovish decision by the US Fed, capital outflows suggest that investors’ optimism about EMs is faltering. While

Key View

• Germany’s construction industry faces a period of underwhelming real growth, below that of the wider Europe region. Between 2023 and 2027, we expect Germany’s construction industry to average annual real growth of just 1.7%, vs. 2.1% for Europe.
• While we would typically expect to see a greater degree of cyclicality in building

Key View

• Drugmakers of Over-The-Counter medicines are set to benefit from amendments to the Reimbursement Act in Poland.
• Stakeholders have raised concerns with a number of amendments that will pose downside risks for drugmakers operating in the country.
• Drug security continues to pose a major issue for stakeholders in Poland.

Drugmakers

The Latest: In November 2023, Argentina’s National Administration of Drugs, Food and Technology (Administración Nacional de Medicamentos, Alimentos y Tecnología Médica; ANMAT) and Brazil’s National Health Surveillance Agency (Agência Nacional de Vigilância Santiária; Anvisa) signed the first Mutual Recognition Agreement on Certificates for

Key View

• In Q323, the UK economy recorded zero growth in q-o-q terms, which followed an expansion of 0.2% q-o-q in Q2.
• While this outcome differed from the 0.1% q-o-q expansion which conditioned our forecast for a 2023 growth rate of 0.5%, the ONS’ Blue Book GDP revisions (which boosted output for previous periods) has neutered the impact

Latest Developments: Four bidders - Claro Colombia, Partners Telecom Colombia (WOM), the Tigo-Telefonica network-sharing joint venture and Sociedad Futura Telecall Colombia - have registered to compete in Colombia's upcoming 5G spectrum auction. Telecall would be a new player in the Colombian mobile market and its expression of interest

Agricultural commodities, pulled up by softs, have been the clear outperformer this month, while the energy complex has crumbled amid fading geopolitical risk premia and a bloated gas market. The Israel-Hamas conflict that erupted on October 7 remains relatively well-contained, with both the US and Iranian-backed militant groups in Lebanon