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• The disappointing performance of the Swedish economy in Q323 is consistent with our bearish economic outlook for 2023, but we still predict accelerating momentum in 2024.
• We forecast that the Swedish economy will contract by 0.5% in 2023 due to factors like weak sentiment, restrictive monetary policy, inflation above the target

Key View: Despite growing demand, supply of furniture and furnishings in Sub-Saharan Africa remains limited. This has resulted in imports providing a key role in meeting domestic demand, however the expansion of e-commerce is allowing both importers and small to medium sized enterprises to be more competitive in local markets. Consumers are

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• Japan’s refining segment has faced additional pressure throughout 2023 as a combination of scheduled and unscheduled maintenance has forced numerous facilities into bouts of temporary closure.
• Japan’s refining sector faces a bleak outlook with government programmes streamlining the industry and ageing facilities failing to fill

Key View

• We forecast that Liberia's real GDP growth will decelerate to 3.6% in 2023, due to exchange rate weakness and high inflation caused by the 17.8% fall of the Liberian dollar against the US dollar in the year-to-date.
• In 2024, we expect that growth will accelerate to 5.6%, the strongest since 2015, driven by recovering private

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• The recently introduced Voluntary Scheme for Branded Medicines will act as boon to UK's pharmaceutical industry.
• This agreement sets the stage for enhanced collaboration and innovation within the UK's pharmaceutical sector.
• Despite several advantages, the scheme presents challenges, particularly to generic manufacturers.

The

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• We expect broad political stability in the Seychelles over the coming quarters as the government retains control of the legislature and implements reforms under an IMF programme.
• While price pressures are likely to build and weak tourist inflows will weigh on labour markets, we anticipate limited social unrest, and any protests

Key View: We hold a positive outlook for Polish consumer spending over 2024, supported by the combination of stronger economic growth, a still strong labour market and easing inflation all filtering through into improvements in the purchasing power of households over the year. Consumer confidence indicators all point to significant improvement

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• We anticipate mounting challenges for South Korea’s President Yoon Suk-Yeol in the lead-up to parliamentary elections scheduled for April 10 2024.
• Yoon’s administration will need to cope with a difficult macroeconomic backdrop, while pursuing his liberal economic agenda.
• Overall, we retain our Short-Term Political Risk Index

The Latest: On November 20 2023, Grail announced that it will initiate the Real-world Evidence to Advance Multi-Cancer Early Detection Health Equity (REACH) study, which aims to assess the clinical impact of the Galleri multi-cancer early detection (MCED) test among Medicare beneficiaries in the US. This announcement comes after the FDA

Key View

• We have formed a baseline scenario for 2024 where we expect the formation of the first new multilateral technology export control regime since 1996, spearheaded by the US and including developed markets with a considerable share in global semiconductor manufacturing capacity.
• The key catalysts prompting the emergence of this