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• In 2024, consumers will remain cautious due to easing but still-high inflation, leading them to focus their spending toward essential items and smaller quality-of-life purchases, rather than large-ticket items.
• Purchasing power is expected to improve slightly year-on-year due to tight labour markets, and its impact on real wage

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• The food and drink sector will remain resilient in 2024, as the global consumer continues to focus on meeting their essential needs.
• Mass grocery retailers are predicted to revamp their loyalty schemes to provide benefits bundling, diversified rewards and convenience, in response to consumers desiring more than just discounts.
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• We cut our 2023 estimate for Qatar’s real GDP growth from 2.1% to 1.0% after Q223 growth surprised to the downside. 
• In 2024, we expect that growth will rebound to 2.0% as stronger investment as well as private and public consumption will drive a recovery in the non-oil sector, while growing hydrocarbon output will support goods

Latest Developments: Market-leader OneComm has launched its 5G mobile network in Bermuda in November 2023, with newcomer Paradise Mobile expected to follow up with its respective launch by early December. Our view is that Paradise’s entry to the market will both capture some market share and improve Bermuda’s Internet of Things (IoT) ecosystem

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• Health expenditure growth in developed markets and major emerging markets is expected to slow slightly in 2024, but moderately higher growth is forecast in secondary emerging markets.  
• In 2024, healthcare topics will have reduced prominence in elections and political events compared to recent years, due to the emergence of more

Key View: We maintain our long-held positive stance on Finnish BEV sales for 2024 and beyond, with the BEV sub-segment set to almost triple in size by 2032. That said, we note risks posed by the recent change of government in Helsinki, with the new right-wing government of Petteri Orpo proposing an end to subsidies for the installation of EV

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• In 2024, the rate of vehicle sales growth will slow to 4.3% as pent-up demand caused by the shortages of previous years is exhausted and tighter economic conditions take hold.
• Electrification will face growing headwinds from increased operating costs, reduced EV purchase subsidies and the 'price war'. This will spur new EV

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• The trend of increasing pharmaceutical prices is expected to continue in Argentina due to ongoing drug shortages and inflationary pressures.
• Increasing pricing pressures will place downward pressure on drugmakers operating in Argentina.
• Macroeconomic and political concerns will continue to pose downside risks to Argentina’s

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• Following the release of Q323 GDP data for Hungary - which showed that output expanded by 0.9% q-o-q - we have revised up our forecast for 2023 growth from -1.3% to -0.7%. This would follow growth of 4.6% in 2022.
• We expect 2024 growth to come in at a below trend 1.6% as short-term challenges, such as still elevated inflation

Latest Development: Gabon's General Directorate of Economy and Fiscal Policy (DGEPF) has released new data relating to mobile money uptake in the country. We have upwardly revised our forecasts for this fast-growing sub-segment of the mobile market in order to reflect the new data.

Forecast Implications: The DGEPF's data note a 17.4% year-on