Articles

Key View

• The trend of increasing pharmaceutical prices is expected to continue in Argentina due to ongoing drug shortages and inflationary pressures.
• Increasing pricing pressures will place downward pressure on drugmakers operating in Argentina.
• Macroeconomic and political concerns will continue to pose downside risks to Argentina’s

Key View

• Following the release of Q323 GDP data for Hungary - which showed that output expanded by 0.9% q-o-q - we have revised up our forecast for 2023 growth from -1.3% to -0.7%. This would follow growth of 4.6% in 2022.
• We expect 2024 growth to come in at a below trend 1.6% as short-term challenges, such as still elevated inflation

Key View: We maintain our long-held positive stance on Finnish BEV sales for 2024 and beyond, with the BEV sub-segment set to almost triple in size by 2032. That said, we note risks posed by the recent change of government in Helsinki, with the new right-wing government of Petteri Orpo proposing an end to subsidies for the installation of EV

Key View

• Reform momentum in EMs has decreased slightly in Q423, with the global average score among 32 EMs covered in our Reform Tracker falling from 4.1 to 4.0 out of 10 (lower score = weaker reform momentum).
• This is the first decrease in the reform score since reform momentum troughed at the end of 2022, following deteriorations in 2020

Key View: Following a large currency sell-off in June 2023, our 2024 consumer spending forecast in Angola has firmly shifted to the negative. Inflation indicators continue to accelerate while weak economic growth, Angola’s undiversified economy and low levels of employment in formal sectors mean that consumer spending power will remain severely

Key View

• In 2024, global pharmaceutical expenditure growth will be driven by North America and Asia-Pacific, while Europe and Latin America will experience a slowdown, Sub-Saharan Africa will modestly recover and the Middle East and North Africa region will emerge strong.
• Cost-containment implementation and unfavourable pharmaceutical

Latest Development: Gabon's General Directorate of Economy and Fiscal Policy (DGEPF) has released new data relating to mobile money uptake in the country. We have upwardly revised our forecasts for this fast-growing sub-segment of the mobile market in order to reflect the new data.

Forecast Implications: The DGEPF's data note a 17.4% year-on

Key View

• We continue to expect that the Gulf Cooperation Council markets will maintain a cautious foreign policy approach to the Israel-Hamas war in order to de-escalate the geopolitical tensions, as evident by Qatar’s efforts to broker a ceasefire and by Saudi Arabia and the UAE using all channels of communication to push for a resolution

Key View

• The disappointing performance of the Swedish economy in Q323 is consistent with our bearish economic outlook for 2023, but we still predict accelerating momentum in 2024.
• We forecast that the Swedish economy will contract by 0.5% in 2023 due to factors like weak sentiment, restrictive monetary policy, inflation above the target

Key View: Despite growing demand, supply of furniture and furnishings in Sub-Saharan Africa remains limited. This has resulted in imports providing a key role in meeting domestic demand, however the expansion of e-commerce is allowing both importers and small to medium sized enterprises to be more competitive in local markets. Consumers are