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Key View

• Global inflation softened in October, registering at 3.4% y-o-y according to our estimate, a decrease from 3.9% in September.
• In October, inflation decelerated in 17 of the 23 economies we monitor, including the UK, Germany, India, Poland, and Brazil. Notably, Italy reported below-target inflation at 1.9% y-o-y, while Mainland

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• Regulatory approval granted for the development of the Rosebank project will provide a much-needed boost to the UK's oil production in the latter half of this decade.
• The strong risk of a change in UK government which would see less supportive government policy towards future oil and gas projects could lead to an immediate

Key View

• While we remain cautiously optimistic for Pakistan's vehicle production outlook over the medium term, the continued FX shortages and power supply risks will sustain pressure on output in FY24/25 (July-June).
• Vehicle assemblers in Pakistan rely mainly on semi-knocked down (CKD) kits, and other auto parts imports to run their

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• We have raised our forecast for real GDP growth in Chile in 2023 from -0.1% to 0.1% after the release of Q323 data and revisions to H1 figures both showed stronger growth than expected.
• We continue to see a rebound to 2.0% growth in 2024, based on recent high frequency data, lower interest rates and inflation and a recovery in

Global Growth: We have lifted our forecast for global growth by 0.1pp to 2.6% in 2023, but have revised down the outlook for growth next year by a similar amount and forecast a sharp slowdown over the year to 2.1%. In part, the 2023 revision higher was driven by our more optimistic outlook for the US economy, for which we now forecast growth of

The Latest: In October 2023, the Hungarian government announced plans to introduce a new housing subsidy scheme (CSOK Plus) in 2024, in an attempt to regenerate the country's property market, which has been struggling since the Covid-19 pandemic. The current system, which provides generous tax refunds, discounted travelling and entry tickets

The Latest: On November 14 2023, the Vietnam-based online payment platform ZaloPay announced a partnership with the Indonesia-based Southeast Asian superapp Gojek to allow users to utilise ZaloPay for on-demand food delivery services from the GoFood service on the Gojek app. 

Implications: ZaloPay is one of the most popular e-payment

Key View

• The latest activity and survey data suggest that conditions in EMs remained tepid in Q3 2023. We expect that a slowdown in DMs will drag on EMs going into 2024.
• Indeed, while EM currencies briefly rallied following a dovish decision by the US Fed, capital outflows suggest that investors’ optimism about EMs is faltering. While

Key View

• Germany’s construction industry faces a period of underwhelming real growth, below that of the wider Europe region. Between 2023 and 2027, we expect Germany’s construction industry to average annual real growth of just 1.7%, vs. 2.1% for Europe.
• While we would typically expect to see a greater degree of cyclicality in building

Key View

• In the event that the Israel-Hamas conflict escalates significantly, Russia is likely to emerge as the biggest beneficiary, as the West would be further distracted from Ukraine, and Russia’s economy would benefit from higher oil prices.
• The impact on Mainland China would be mixed, as Beijing may welcome the US’s distraction from