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• We have raised our forecast for real GDP growth in Chile in 2023 from -0.1% to 0.1% after the release of Q323 data and revisions to H1 figures both showed stronger growth than expected.
• We continue to see a rebound to 2.0% growth in 2024, based on recent high frequency data, lower interest rates and inflation and a recovery in

Global Growth: We have lifted our forecast for global growth by 0.1pp to 2.6% in 2023, but have revised down the outlook for growth next year by a similar amount and forecast a sharp slowdown over the year to 2.1%. In part, the 2023 revision higher was driven by our more optimistic outlook for the US economy, for which we now forecast growth of

The Latest: In October 2023, the Hungarian government announced plans to introduce a new housing subsidy scheme (CSOK Plus) in 2024, in an attempt to regenerate the country's property market, which has been struggling since the Covid-19 pandemic. The current system, which provides generous tax refunds, discounted travelling and entry tickets

• We now expect the Dutch economy to grow by 0.2% in 2023 and 0.6% in 2024 (previous forecasts: 0.5% and 0.9%), marking a sharp slowdown from growth of 4.3% in 2022.
• Despite the latest downturn in figures, we anticipate a gradual rebound in private consumption in 2024.
• Net exports will continue to subtract from growth over the short term

We have identified 10 major economic and political themes that will shape 2024. As we have seen over the past two-to-three years, the outlook can change rapidly given unforeseen and volatile events. We believe that we are moving from a period in which one or two major risks dominate to a period to one which there will be a multiplicity of

Key View

• Global inflation softened in October, registering at 3.4% y-o-y according to our estimate, a decrease from 3.9% in September.
• In October, inflation decelerated in 17 of the 23 economies we monitor, including the UK, Germany, India, Poland, and Brazil. Notably, Italy reported below-target inflation at 1.9% y-o-y, while Mainland

Key View

• Germany’s construction industry faces a period of underwhelming real growth, below that of the wider Europe region. Between 2023 and 2027, we expect Germany’s construction industry to average annual real growth of just 1.7%, vs. 2.1% for Europe.
• While we would typically expect to see a greater degree of cyclicality in building

Key View

• In the event that the Israel-Hamas conflict escalates significantly, Russia is likely to emerge as the biggest beneficiary, as the West would be further distracted from Ukraine, and Russia’s economy would benefit from higher oil prices.
• The impact on Mainland China would be mixed, as Beijing may welcome the US’s distraction from

Key View

•  Malaysia’s real GDP growth accelerated from 2.9% y-o-y in Q223 to 3.3% in Q323, coming in above consensus estimates but below our forecasts.
• We expect the economic recovery over the coming quarters to be gradual due to the ongoing impact of weakening global demand and restrictive monetary conditions.
• Overall, we have revised

The Latest: On November 14 2023, the Vietnam-based online payment platform ZaloPay announced a partnership with the Indonesia-based Southeast Asian superapp Gojek to allow users to utilise ZaloPay for on-demand food delivery services from the GoFood service on the Gojek app. 

Implications: ZaloPay is one of the most popular e-payment