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• We maintain our positive outlook for Pakistan’s banking sector, which will benefit from stronger economic growth and a recovery in credit appetite caused by IMF support and a policy rate cut in H2 2024.
• Credit to the private sector will gradually recover, primarily driven by improved demand in major industries such as wholesale &

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• Sustained focus on economic diversification will strengthen the UAE's pharmaceutical sector.
• Rollout of mandatory private health insurance will boost pharmaceutical sales in the UAE.
• High consumer spending power and brand loyalty will limit pace of generic drug uptake.

Sustained focus on economic diversification will strengthen

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• We maintain our view that a shake up in the current liberal coalition government led by Alexander De Croo in Belgian federal elections on June 9 is likely, in light of recent polls.
• Elevated social polarisation driven by the proliferation of extremist parties has played a key role in driving Belgian political risk higher ahead of

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• Advancing net zero in healthcare will become increasingly important for healthcare systems, aligning with the global trend across all industries to address the impact of climate change.
• Decarbonisation through reducing Scope 1 and 2 emissions will be a near to medium-term target for healthcare systems.
• The growing trend of net

Please Note: BMI is enhancing its risk analysis with a new scoring system following acquisition of GeoQuant, a market-leading provider of political risk data. From March 27 2024, risk scores are inverted: zero now represents the lowest risk and 100 the highest, for clearer, industry-standard assessments. For further details, please refer to our

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• The Egyptian Drug Authority (EDA) will increase medicine prices, as a response to ongoing macroeconomic headwinds weighing on domestic drugmakers.
• High Out-Of-Pocket payments and reduced household spending power will erode Egypt’s pharmaceutical market value in real terms. 
• In 2024, the generic drug market share will reduce

Key View

• We forecast that GDP-weighted growth in European banking sector assets will come in at 3.8% y-o-y at end-2024, and 4.8% at end-2025. This compares with estimated growth of 4.8% at end-2023.
• Asset growth will slow in 2024 as the lagged impact of rate hikes continues to filter through to lending activity across the region. Higher

Key View: The extension of Spain's MOVES III incentive scheme until July 2024, offering tax benefits and purchase incentives, in conjunction with upgrades to the local EV charging infrastructure, will encourage Spanish consumers to shift from ICEs to EVs in 2024. We expect the growth rate in Spain's passenger EV segment to significantly exceed

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• We expect that real GDP growth in Botswana will accelerate to 5.0% in 2024, from an estimated 2.7% in 2023.
• Relatively stable energy prices will see inflation fall, boosting private consumption.
• An expected recovery in global diamond prices will prompt diamond traders to resume sales in 2024, providing tailwinds to exports.

We

Key View

• Colombia-based Ecopetrol is set to enter a drilling spree in 2024 as the state-backed company seeks to take advantage of recent hydrocarbon discoveries and preserve the lifelines of its existing assets.
• This investment comes at a crossroads for Colombia’s oil and gas industry, with the incumbent Petro administration so far holding