Articles

Winners And Losers: A New Ukrainian Economy Will Look Different

Country Risk / Ukraine / Wed 06 Mar, 2024

We retain our view that the economy will not return to its pre-war size until 2031. By pre-war we refer to the size of the economy in 2013, before Russia’s first invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine’s National Recovery Plan (NRP) assumes that Ukraine will achieve growth of 7% or higher over the next decade. We believe the NRP, released in 2022, did not

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Canada’s External Position To Improve Marginally In 2024

Country Risk / Canada / Tue 05 Mar, 2024

Key View

  • We forecast that Canada’s current account deficit will narrow to a 16-year low of 0.2% of GDP in 2024, from 0.6% in 2023.
  • This improvement will largely reflect a combination of softer import demand linked to a challenging domestic economic environment and a rebound in oil production.
  • Canada’s external sector continues to pose
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Indonesia: Current Account Deficit Will Widen

Country Risk / Indonesia / Tue 05 Mar, 2024

Key View

  • Indonesia’s current account will likely remain in a deficit in 024. We forecast the shortfall to widen from 0.1% of GDP in 2023 to 1.1% in 2024.
  • A weaker global economy will be the biggest threat to Indonesia’s export performance. 
  • The plateauing in Indonesia’s key commodity exports will also do little to support the country’s
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LatAm Consumer Watch: Inflation Prints Uneven, Weakness In Chile And Colombia While Mexico Stands Firm

Consumer & Retail / Latin America / Tue 05 Mar, 2024

What The Consumer Team Is Watching In The Week Ahead

Over the coming week, our Country Risk Team will be watching the February inflation data for Chile, Colombia and Mexico. The recent backdrop has varied across these markets: inflation has steadily cooled in Chile, while it remains notably high in Colombia, and has recently picked up some

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Glencore: Increasing Share Of Critical Minerals In Asset Portfolio

Mining / Global / Tue 05 Mar, 2024

Key View 

  • In January 2024, Congo-Brazzaville signed an USD850mn debt deal with Glencore for amounts loaned out in 2015 and 2016. The debt owed to Glencore was to be paid using future oil deliveries over a 5-year period but remains unpaid. The IMF approved funding of USD445mn to aid Congo-Brazzaville's declining economy in 2019. However, only
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