Articles

Key View

• Singapore's Ministry of Communications and Information unveiled that an expert committee is developing a Digital Infrastructure Act to fortify the resilience and security of Singapore's digital infrastructure beyond the current Cybersecurity Act, addressing a wider spectrum of risks to maintain continuous service delivery amidst a

The Latest: On March 25 2024, McDonald's ended its franchise agreement with Abans, its local partner in Sri Lanka, citing alleged issues with hygiene standards. All 12 outlets in the country have since closed.

Implications: Our Country Team forecast a continuous recovery of the wider Sri Lankan economy following the aftermath of the

Key View

• Oman's economic growth will increase from 1.6% in 2023 to 2.1% in 2024, driven by normalised hydrocarbon production and a small drop in interest rates in H2 2024. 
• Net exports will contribute positively to growth with a minimal contraction in oil production and a boost in tourism due to diversification efforts.
• However, growth

Key View

• We flag the approaching EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) deadline as a significant downside risk for East African coffee producers due to the compliance costs and difficulties faced by the smallholder farmers prevalent in the region.
• We highlight the importance of this regulation for East African coffee producers as 41.5% of

Key View: The outlook for agricultural machinery sales in Europe remains grim in 2024, as the eurozone's growth will be muted at 0.8% and farm incomes will see little improvement. Overall, the demand for efficiency and sustainability in agriculture is increasingly impacting the agricultural machinery market in Europe and farmers are looking for

Key View

• We expect that the Banco de Moçambique (BM) will lower its benchmark policy rate by a further 175 basis points (bps) to 14.00% by end-2024, after cutting by a greater-than-expected 75bps to 15.75% on March 27.
• Limited price pressures and still-high real lending rates will push policymakers to implement further large policy rate

Key View

• We have revised our CAGR forecast upwards due to increased public investment into healthcare infrastructure and now project that Chile’s medical device market will grow at a 2023-2028 CAGR of 7.1% in local currency terms and 8.3% in US dollar terms. 
• We expect medical device import performance to be limited in the short term, but

Key View

• We expect that below-average precipitation and high temperatures in Southern Africa throughout Q124 will weigh significantly on agricultural production in the region, exacerbating food security challenges. 
• We forecast that corn production in two of the largest corn producers in the region, Zambia and South Africa, will fall in

What The Consumer Team is Watching In The Week Ahead 

On March 29 2024, our Country Risk Team will be watching the Polish inflation print. We forecast Polish inflation to decline in March, falling to 2.2% y-o-y (Bloomberg Consensus: 2.3%) from its February rate of 2.8%. Disinflation remains a function of a high 2023 base, falling fuel prices

Latest Development: Bulgaria is set to improve access to over-the-counter (OTC) medicines in underserved communities through the introduction of medicine vending machines. The Ministry of Health's recent amendments to the Medicinal Products in Human Medicine Act will allow pharmacy owners to place vending machines in areas lacking pharmacy