Blog

China-Taiwan Summit: Huge Symbolic Significance, But No 'Game-Changer'

BMI View: The first-ever summit between Chinese and Taiwanese leaders on November 7 will be of huge symbolic importance, but it will not be a 'game-changer', as Taiwanese voters are wary of the mainland's rising influence over the island. We...

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Unreliability Of Opinion Polls Bringing More Political Surprises

Several times this year, we have witnessed 'surprise' or even 'shock' outcomes from general elections, due to the unreliability of opinion polls, late surges by seemingly weaker parties or candidates, or sharp declines in support for incumbents....

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Prisoners Of Geography (Book Review)

'Prisoners of Geography' is a very useful new book on global politics. It's a highly accessible introduction to the geopolitics of every region on Earth, including the Arctic Circle. As the title suggests, the author explains how geography shapes...

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China's Rate Cut Will Not Bolster Economy

The People's Bank of China (PBoC)'s decision to lower interest rates again (by 25bps to 4.35%) on October 23 will do little to support economic growth and will further undermine confidence in the yuan, which we expect to weaken considerably over the...

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Expect More ECB Easing

The chances of an expansion of eurozone monetary policy by the end of 2015 have increased significantly, with a very dovish ECB press conference on October 22 in which President Mario Draghi hinted strongly that more easing could be on the cards as...

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Thought Experiment: Might Finland Quit the Euro?

A loss of competitiveness, stagnant growth prospects, and the likelihood of more eurozone bailouts further down the line raise the possibility that a 'creditor' euro-area member such as Finland may actually leave the currency union before a 'debtor...

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Russia Strikes Syria but Geopolitical 'Surge' May Prove Hard to Sustain

Russia's decision to initiate air strikes against Islamic State (IS) fighters in Syria on September 30 signals the continuation of a much more active foreign policy than at any time since the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991. These strikes come at a...

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Market Implications of Latest Fed Hold

The US Federal Reserve's decision not to hike interest rates on September 17 is bearish for US stocks, in our view. Rate markets are now pricing in only a 45% chance of a hike by December, meaning that the wall of worry which markets like to climb...

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US Recession Risks Underappreciated

BMI View: Regardless of whether the US Fed hikes interest rates in the near term, extremely easy monetary policy over recent years has already sown the seeds of the next equity market bust, while at the same time creating a tenuous production...

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