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Latest Development: Copia Global (Copia), an e-commerce/fintech platform for African mass-market consumers, and Visa have formed a strategic partnership to launch a digital wallet and financial services platform for Kenyan consumers. The alliance between Copia and Visa may confront downside risks due to Safaricom's market dominance in Kenya

Key View: Spanish consumer spending will ease in 2024, although it will remain positive due to the effects of a slower rate of inflation. Broader macroeconomic weakness will limit the pace of expansion. While there are signs of some improvement from the high frequency data available for Spain, the combination of slower wage growth, rising

The Latest: On December 12 2023, AstraZeneca announced it has agreed to acquire US-based vaccine manufacturer, Icosavax. Under the terms of the deal, AstraZeneca will pay Icosavax USD800mn upfront, with further payments due if certain regulatory and sales milestones are reached, which could potentially take the deal to USD1.1bn. Icosavax uses an

Key View: The Western European household goods sector is increasingly being influenced by the minimalism trend, where consumers favour simplicity, functionality, and sustainability. This shift is driven by a desire for uncluttered living spaces and eco-friendly products, with a focus on quality and longevity over quantity. The trend aligns with

Key View

• We forecast client loan growth of 3.5% in Ukraine in 2024, as stabilising domestic demand and looser monetary policy will allow lending activity to normalise somewhat, albeit at lower levels than pre-war.
• Rate cuts will weigh on deposit growth, which we expect to slow from a projected 19.6% in 2023 to 10.1% in 2024, although

Key View

• The Bank of England (BoE) held Bank Rate steady at 5.25% on December 14, marking the third rate hold in a row. The BoE has clearly entered a holding pattern, which we expect to extend well into 2024.
• We anticipate that the BoE will begin to reduce rates in H2 2024, with 75bps of cuts pencilled in by end-2024.
• In spite of a weak

The Latest: During the American Society of Haematology (ASH) annual meeting, which took place from December –9-12 2023 in California, Johnson and Johnson (J&J) announced positive data from the Perseus Phase III clinical trial. The study, which evaluated Darzalex Faspro (daratumumab and hyaluronidase) among stem cell transplant-eligible patients

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• Recent and upcoming inaugurations of new and reelected leaders in Argentina, Egypt, and Poland highlight ongoing economic and political constraints facing their agendas. In emerging markets (EMs) with upcoming elections, including South Africa, Mexico, and Turkiye (municipal) such constraints will test incumbents and raise unrest

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• We forecast that Nigeria's real GDP growth will increase modestly to 2.9% in 2024, up from 2.4% in 2023.
• The operational start of the Dangote refinery in Q124 will lead to a sharp reduction in imports and increase the country’s trade surplus, providing tailwinds to economic growth.
• However, domestic demand will remain weak in 2024

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• We forecast that real GDP growth in Cameroon will accelerate to 4.5% in 2024, up from 3.9% in 2023. We retain our 2023 forecast after Q223 data showed that growth accelerated, in line with our expectations, coming in at 3.9% against an upwardly revised 3.6% in Q123.
• In 2024, growth will be driven by a strong performance by the non