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Key View

• While Sri Lankan policymakers left their Standing Deposit Facility Rate on hold at 9.00% at their first meeting of the year, we think that they will restart their loosening cycle in Q2 2024.
• We expect that they will cut the rate to 7.00% by the end of the year. 
• Risks are weighted towards the rate remaining higher for longer. In

Key View

• Governments will accelerate efforts to regulate the use of artificial intelligence in healthcare following the WHO’s guidance for the safe use of large multi-modal models.
• Despite the guidance, we do not expect the use of LMMs to be globally widespread in the near to medium term.
• In the long term, we expect regulations regarding the

Key View

• Our core timeline for elections – required to be held by January 2025 - foresees the UK electorate heading to the polls in H2 2024, probably in October. However, we do not rule out elections being called earlier.
• We retain our long-held view that the Labour party will capitalise on their established poll lead, winning a majority in

Latest Development: The government of The Gambia has approved the sale of a 60% stake in the government-owned mobile operator Gamcel.

Forecast Implications: Operators in The Gambia are only just beginning to deploy 5G networks and services, and with Gamcel lagging in market share and advanced infrastructure it is imperative that the state-owned

Key View

• Forecasted exports and pharmaceutical sales in Kazakhstan are expected to increase in the short- to medium term.
• The increase in localised pharmaceutical production will reduce pharmaceutical security risks in Kazakhstan.
• We expect that Kazakhstan will become a regional hub of pharmaceutical production.

Forecasted exports and

Latest Development: On January 22 2024, major pharmaceutical companies, including Roche and Sinopharm, have ramped up production in response to a sharp increase in the demand for respiratory illness treatments across Mainland China. Data from the online healthcare service JD Health revealed that in the initial 12 days of January 2024, sales of

The Latest: On January 24, the European Commission proposed its Economic Security Policy package, which aims to insulate the EU’s economy from geopolitical and supply chain risks through stricter controls on foreign investment and exports in strategic industries. More concretely the package focusses on five key areas:

1. Inbound Foreign

Key View: Despite a forecasted deceleration, we hold a positive outlook for consumer spending in Hong Kong, China over 2024. As base effects, which arose from the full reopening of borders with Mainland China as well as the wider international tourism market, begin to wear off consumer spending growth will follow a more stable trajectory over the

Key View 

• This quarter we have made a substantial downward revision to our carbon price forecast. We now forecast EUAs to average EUR85/tCO2 in 2024, down from EUR90/tCO2 previously.
• In large part this reflects weaker-than-expected price performance over Q423 and heading into the new year. We expect continued, albeit moderate, price gains in

Key View

• We expect Italy’s medical devices market will register single-digit growth over the forecast period to 2028.
• Orthopaedics and prosthetics will be the best performing product area across the forecast period.
• Healthcare staff shortages amid an ageing workforce will weigh on medical devices demand. 

We expect Italy’s medical devices