Articles

Inflation Inevitable From Bond Note Expansion

Country Risk / Zimbabwe / Wed 30 Aug, 2017

The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe's decision to more than double the size of its bond note programme will see inflation move more firmly into positive territory over the coming months as the money supply increases further. The effect will be compounded by the likelihood of shortages of imported goods as the supply of hard currency with which to access

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Sovereign Risks Higher Than Fiscal Position Implies

Country Risk / Turkey / Wed 30 Aug, 2017

The Turkish government's counter cyclical fiscal policy will lead to a deteriorating fiscal position in the years ahead. While the public debt will remain low relative to emerging market averages, growing contingent liabilities - from several off-balance sheet stimulus measures - could pose upside risks to government debt levels if they are

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Recovering, But No Boom Ahead

Country Risk / Lebanon / Wed 30 Aug, 2017

The Lebanese economy will see some improvements over the coming years, as falling political risk boosts business confidence and as external conditions brighten. That said, the pace of growth will remain modest, owing to structural weakness in the business environment, poor public finances prompting austerity measures, and the return of inflation.

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Need for Scale Could Drive More US Lodging Consolidation

Tourism / United States / Tue 29 Aug, 2017

The growing power of the largest U.S. hotel brands is altering the hospitality industry competitive landscape and will likely drive more lodging consolidation, according to Fitch Ratings. Smaller lodging operators are taking more balance sheet risk to grow their rooms systems, as hotel owners and franchisees increasingly align themselves with

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Indonesia: Diverse Outlooks Across Provinces

Infrastructure / Indonesia / Mon 28 Aug, 2017

Jakarta and its surrounding provinces of West Java and Banten will continue lead Indonesia's construction industry in terms of growth and value, with strong project pipelines across the transport, utilities and real estate sectors. Infrastructure growth in less-developed provinces on Sumatra, Kalimantan and Sulawesi will be focused on improving

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Brexit's Brightside Fading Due To Weak Supply Chain

Country Risk / Fri 25 Aug, 2017

BMI View: The low local content in UK-built vehicles could act as a major barrier to the UK automotive industry's ability to capitalise on Brexit and the negotiation of new trade deals with fast growing emerging markets.

The lower share of automotive components sourced from domestic suppliers could prove to be a barrier to unlocking the UK

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Thimpu To Seek To Improve Ties With Beijing

Country Risk / Bhutan / Thu 24 Aug, 2017

Ongoing tensions between India and China over the territorial dispute in the Doklam region between China and Bhutan highlights the foreign policy challenges that Bhutan faces and we expect these challenges to persist as both China and India seek to expand their respective spheres of influence. With concerns rising within Bhutan over the scope of

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Latam: Which Industries Are Most Attractive?

Country Risk / Global / Thu 24 Aug, 2017

Our assessment of industry investment attractiveness in Latin America illuminates several key themes. These include Chile's broad-based appeal for investors prioritising a stable operating environment, Brazil's appeal to firms looking for scalable consumer market opportunities, and the resilience of several mining markets in the region despite

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