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• We forecast that France’s current account deficit will narrow from a projected 1.6% of GDP in 2023 to 1.3% in 2024 and 0.9% in 2025 (previous forecasts: 1.7%, 1.5% and 1.0%).
• A still elevated import bill and a muted external backdrop will keep France’s goods trade deficit wider than pre-2022 levels.
• Though remaining in surplus

Key View

• We forecast Polish GDP growth to accelerate to 2.4% in 2024 and 3.1% in 2025 after having slumped to an estimated 0.6% in 2023.
• Poland’s recovery will be underpinned by improving private consumption as growth in real incomes allows households to expand spending in 2024 and 2025.
• Headwinds from a weak external demand outlook will

Key View: Our outlook for Israeli consumer spending over 2024 remains relatively positive, despite the ongoing effects of the Israel-Hamas conflict. We forecast that 2024 spending will improve a touch from 2023, although we note the 2023 figures are considerably weaker than 2022. The most up-to-date high-frequency data indicate that consumer

The Latest: On December 19 2023, Kerry County Council officially approved plans for the Japan-based pharmaceutical company, Astella, to construct a manufacturing plant in Tralee, Ireland. The company announced plans in September 2023 for the development, which represents a strategic investment exceeding EUR330mn (USD329mn). The new facility

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• After recent data releases we are revising our 2023 growth estimate for Uruguay down to -0.4% but are expecting a strong growth rebound of 3.1% in 2024.
• We anticipate that growth will be supported by recovering exports and private consumption following the worst drought in decades in 2023.
• Risks to growth are few and mostly

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• Official advance estimates showed that Singapore’s economy grew by 1.7% q-o-q s.a. in Q423, accelerating from 1.3% q-o-q s.a. in Q323 and outperforming our forecast.
• Manufacturing was the main growth driver, but contractions in Q123 and Q223 meant that the sector is still smaller than it was in 2022.
• We expect the recovery in

Key View: Looking at the near term, we maintain a relatively upbeat outlook for electric vehicle (EV) adoption in the US, expecting domestic EV penetration rates to grow to 17.9% by 2024. Growth will stimulated by the US IRA bill, as the tax credits will make those models that qualify for the incentives more affordable for consumers. However, we

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• Pakistan’s current account deficit narrowed to just 0.7% of GDP in FY2022/23 (July 2022 to June 2023), but we think that strengthening domestic demand will cause the shortfall to widen to 1.4% in FY2023/24.
• The recent narrowing of the deficit was due almost entirely to import compression, rather than stronger export earnings. We

The Latest: On December 26 2023, AstraZeneca announced its plan to make one of its first acquisitions in Mainland China and acquire Gracell Biotechnologies for up to USD1.2bn to increase its investment in cell therapies for treating cancer. The proposed acquisition will add a potential new treatment for multiple myeloma, a type of bone marrow

Key View

• We forecast that Kenyan real GDP growth will remain strong at 5.2% in 2024, against estimated growth of 5.5% in 2023 – we have upwardly revised our 2023 estimate from 5.2% previously, following the release of stronger-than-expected Q323 data, while our 2024 forecast represents a downwards revision from our previous projection of 5.4%