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• We maintain our forecast for the central bank to cut its policy rate from 4.5% to 4.0% by end-2024.
• We think the Bank will ease policy further to help ensure the economy meets the government’s GDP and credit growth targets, and relatively benign inflation will allow the Bank to cut.
• While recent dong weakness is a constraint, we do not think

Key View: Our outlook for German consumer spending over 2024 shows a slight yet modest rebound yet remains below pre-pandemic levels. Consumer confidence is stable but subdued, with retail sales weak amid ongoing economic challenges. Inflation pressures are expected to ease, while the labour market is relatively tight. Government interventions

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• We have revised upward our forecast for UK real GDP growth in 2024 from -0.1% to 0.5%, as the economy has had a much stronger start to the year than we previously anticipated.
• Several tailwinds will support growth throughout Q2 and into Q3 2024. This includes declining inflation, decent wage gains, as well as lower National Insurance

Latest Development: WOM Colombia has filed for bankruptcy just a week after its Chile-based operation did the same. Reports indicate that the Colombian branch requires an infusion of USD 10.3mn to rescue the unit. The aim is to bolster financial stability, maintain service continuity, and meet payment obligations to the government and suppliers.

Key View: After expanding by 178.0% in 2023, we forecast Brazil's passenger EV sales to grow by 83.8% in 2024, achieving a passenger EV penetration rate of 5.2%. Although we maintain a positive outlook on Brazil's EV adoption in the medium term, we acknowledge that the 2024 reimplementation of taxes on EV imports, intended to safeguard local

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• The Indonesian Internet Service Providers Association (APJII) has formalised a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with SpaceX's Starlink to bolster internet connectivity across Indonesia, targeting enhanced service quality in rural and underdeveloped areas.
• We believe is it highly likely that Starlink will receive uninterrupted

Please Note: BMI is enhancing its risk analysis with a new scoring system following its acquisition of GeoQuant, a market-leading provider of political risk data. From March 27 2024, risk scores are inverted: zero now represents the lowest risk and 100 represents the highest risk. This allows for clearer, industry-standard assessments. For

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• We expect Denmark's economic growth to slow marginally in 2024, projecting a GDP expansion of 1.6%, a slight decrease from the 1.9% growth rate observed in 2023.
• While monetary policy is set to become more accommodative, less favourable base effects – stemming from stronger-than-expected growth in 2023 – will temper the growth rate

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• Roche’s latest Columvi data will support the drug’s full approval in the US and Europe.
• Approval as an earlier line treatment will give Roche an edge over AbbVie and Genmab’s Epkinly.
• Bispecific therapies will continue to attract interest from cancer drugmakers.

Roche’s latest Columvi (glofitamab) data will support the drug’s full

Key View

• South Africa’s NHI Bill is likely to be signed into law in 2024 even if the African National Congress loses its majority during the May general election.
• If the NHI Bill passes into law, it will gradually constrain the private health sector over the long term.
• Budgetary constraints, corruption risks and an overstretched healthcare system are