Articles

Key View

• Global support for solar continues to strengthen in the second half of 2023, as the technology maintains its low-cost status, compared to other non-hydropower renewables. We revised up our annual average growth rate for the coming 10 years from 12.2% to 13.9%.
• We expect the world’s total solar capacity to reach about 1,320GW by the

We forecast that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will accelerate to 3.7% in 2024, from a projected 2.8% in 2023. Excluding 2021, the peak year for post-Covid recovery, this is the fastest rate of growth in a decade, and positions SSA as a global outperformer given slowing growth in developed markets. However, faster headline growth masks

Key View

• Challenging macroeconomic conditions, a persistent cost burden on industry participants and the overhang of tight monetary policy conditions will weigh on infrastructure investment and construction industry activity in 2024.
• Higher debt servicing costs and structurally elevated sovereign debt levels will undermine infrastructure

Key View

• Record levels of new container ships will come into service in 2024, against the backdrop of slowing global growth and subdued consumer demand, leading to overcapacity in the sector. Consequently, we expect to see a broad-based slowdown in mergers and acquisitions in the freight transport sector as shippers aim to build resilience and

Asia will face another challenging year in 2024. A likely global slowdown will cap growth recoveries in the region. Mainland China in particular is likely to slow even further, with spillover effects for the rest of the region. Relief from monetary easing will come later, as we expect the Fed to only begin cutting in H2 2024, which will prevent

Key View

• The year 2024 will see elections held in an unusually high number of large or geopolitically significant economies compared to previous years, but for the most part, we anticipate continuity in government of the ruling parties, and thus broad policy continuity.
• Of greatest interest to international businesses, investors, and

Key View

• The US Bureau of Industry and Security has amended the technical and geographic scope of its export controls on semiconductors and related equipment towards 17 new emerging markets across Central, South East Asia and the Middle East & North Africa region. 
• In our view, emerging markets, which have been identified as a technological

Latin America's regional growth rate will decelerate in 2024, with Central America seeing the sharpest slowdown due to its reliance on the US. Several central banks in the region already began cutting rates in 2023, ahead of the US Federal Reserve, and interest rates will continue to fall across Latin America in 2024, though at a gradual pace. A

Key View

• In 2024, grains price declines will slow, with rice somewhat of an exception due to India's trade restrictions and El Niño anxieties, while markets will remain comparatively tight, rendering prices susceptible to upward momentum-driven runs on adverse supply-side developments.
• Considering its profound effect on agricultural soft

Key View

• Digital transformation of industries and societies is already underway, but 2024 will see a marked acceleration in this process as disruptive technologies -particularly AI - create opportunities for new services, applications and solutions.
• New business models will be needed to fully exploit the potential of digital transformation