Articles

Key View: Consumers In Developed Asia pivoted their disposable incomes towards hobbies and other recreational purchases during the pandemic and have continued to do so even as social restrictions eased. As households get smaller due to falling birthrates, households will gain greater propensity to spend more on their hobbies and other

Key View

• We forecast that real GDP growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will accelerate from 2.8% in 2023 to 3.6% in 2024, in part due to improving economic activity in the region’s two largest economies – Nigeria and South Africa.
• The East & Central Africa subregion will remain an outperformer in 2024 – we highlight robust growth in Kenya -

The Latest: In early December, Italy formally informed Mainland China that it would not renew its commitment to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in March 2024. This follows from a campaign promise of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and several meetings between high level Italian and Chinese officials in the last few months.

Forecast Implications

Key View

• A number of key elections will be held in 2024, and these will have implications for the autos industry due to shifts in policies and geopolitical alignments.
• The ongoing Hamas-Israel conflict will also drag down the ability of importers to import vehicles for the Israeli, Palestinian and Jordanian markets, and increase risk to Egypt

Key View

• We expect growth across Asia to inch down from 4.2% in 2023 to 4.1% in 2024, largely reflecting the slowdown we are expecting in Mainland China next year.
• By contrast, we are expecting looser monetary policy and a turnaround in exports growth to boost most other Asian economies.
• As a result, Asia excluding Mainland China should see

Key View

• Economic migration within Asia will increase over the coming years, returning to pre-pandemic levels as governments will increasingly be pressured to liberalise their migration policies to both high-skilled and low-skilled workers.
• Countries with traditionally restrictive migration policies, such as Japan, South Korea and Singapore

We expect economic activity and fundamentals in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries will outperform the rest of the Middle East And North Africa (MENA) region in 2024. A robust non-oil economy in the GCC and stable oil production will support a pick-up in GCC growth, and keep most of their current account and fiscal balances in surplus

Key View

• OPEC production is predicted to grow in 2024, supported by a partial unwinding of the OPEC+ cuts and gains among non-OPEC+ members, Iran, Libya and Venezuela. However, the return to the market will be gradual and poses challenges in timing.
• Global fuel demand is expected to grow by 1.7% in 2024, primarily driven by emerging markets

Key View

• Following a year of significant volatility and general easing of prices across the board, we present our key views for global commodities in 2024.
• We expect commodity prices to gain some ground in 2024 from current levels (as of December 2023), driven by energy and industrial metals but capped by declines in agricultural crop prices