Articles

Indonesia: Current Account Deficit Will Widen

Country Risk / Indonesia / Tue 05 Mar, 2024

Key View

  • Indonesia’s current account will likely remain in a deficit in 024. We forecast the shortfall to widen from 0.1% of GDP in 2023 to 1.1% in 2024.
  • A weaker global economy will be the biggest threat to Indonesia’s export performance. 
  • The plateauing in Indonesia’s key commodity exports will also do little to support the country’s
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Strong Indian GDP Data Belies Economic Slowdown

Country Risk / India / Mon 04 Mar, 2024

Key View

  • The economy grew by 8.4% y-o-y in Q4 2023 according to expenditure data but production data show a 6.5% rise in GDP instead.
  • We are therefore not convinced that activity picked up and are sticking to our narrative that the economy is set to slow over the coming quarters.
  • Prolonged Red Sea disruptions are a key downside risk to
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