Articles

Key View:

• Recent and upcoming inaugurations of new and reelected leaders in Argentina, Egypt, and Poland highlight ongoing economic and political constraints facing their agendas. In emerging markets (EMs) with upcoming elections, including South Africa, Mexico, and Turkiye (municipal) such constraints will test incumbents and raise unrest

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• We forecast that Nigeria's real GDP growth will increase modestly to 2.9% in 2024, up from 2.4% in 2023.
• The operational start of the Dangote refinery in Q124 will lead to a sharp reduction in imports and increase the country’s trade surplus, providing tailwinds to economic growth.
• However, domestic demand will remain weak in 2024

Key View: The Western European household goods sector is increasingly being influenced by the minimalism trend, where consumers favour simplicity, functionality, and sustainability. This shift is driven by a desire for uncluttered living spaces and eco-friendly products, with a focus on quality and longevity over quantity. The trend aligns with

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• Establishing the first ever ‘Health Day’ at COP28 will provide a platform at future meetings to highlight the inextricable link between climate and health.
• The endorsement of the Declaration on Climate and Health by more than 140 countries at COP28, coupled with several funding commitments, will help to support the resilience of

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• The release of the EU’s list of critical medicines will bolster efforts to mitigate drug shortages in Europe.
• In the long-term, we expect a structural shift towards enhanced local pharmaceutical manufacturing within the region to reduce dependence on imports.
• However, the EU's proposed legislation will hinder pharmaceutical

Latest Development: State-owned operator VNPT has called for the government to adjust the regulatory system to facilitate the development of Internet of Things (IoT), cloud, big data and AI service provision in Vietnam.

Forecast Implications: We see this as a positive development from the government to push for IoT infrastructure that would

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• We forecast that real GDP growth in Cameroon will accelerate to 4.5% in 2024, up from 3.9% in 2023. We retain our 2023 forecast after Q223 data showed that growth accelerated, in line with our expectations, coming in at 3.9% against an upwardly revised 3.6% in Q123.
• In 2024, growth will be driven by a strong performance by the non

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• Beijing stressed the importance of making “economic progress” at its annual Central Economic Work Conference on December 12.
• We take this to mean that it will set a growth target of around 5% at the upcoming Two Meetings (lianghui) in March.
• However, a weak global economic outlook in 2024 and the ongoing housing market downturn mean

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• Trade risks will escalate for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and electric vehicle (EV) battery manufacturers amid the push from various markets to enhance self-sufficiency in their EV supply chains.
• The EU is likely to sign new free trade agreements (FTAs) with resource-rich markets in 2024 to diversify its supply of

Key View

• We revised down Saudi Arabia's GDP growth forecast for 2024 from 3.3% to 2.6% due to lower oil production post-OPEC+ production cuts. This will see the non-oil economy be the primary driver of growth despite some softening due to elevated interest rates.
• The kingdom will register a slight fiscal surplus in 2024, bolstered by slightly