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In this article, we will discuss our five-year outlook for the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) banking sector, highlighting some key themes that we think will emerge, as well as the main risks affecting the sector. This article will be part of a series of regional pieces looking into SSA banking sectors.

Projected growth in total assets for the SSA

Latest Development: Advance estimates on January 31 showed that the economy of Hong Kong, China grew by 0.5% on a q-o-q seasonally adjusted basis in Q423, accelerating from 0.3% growth in Q323. On a y-o-y basis, the economy grew by 4.3% in the final quarter, which was above our expectation of 3.5% growth but below the consensus forecast of 4.7%

Key View: We highlight Bulgaria as a market to watch for tourism investment over the medium term (2024-2028). We estimate that the market’s total tourist arrivals made a full recovery to their pre-pandemic levels in 2023 and will grow by an annual average of 3.7% over the medium term to reach a projected 15.5mn in 2028. We highlight investment in

Key View

• In its latest meeting on January 31, the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) cut the benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 11.25% as inflation cools towards the target range, and signalled further rate cuts to come.
• For the upcoming March 31 meeting, we expect a further 50bps reduction to 10.75%, driven by moderate inflation and slowing

The Latest: On January 29 2024, AbbVie announced a major expansion initiative for its manufacturing operations in Singapore with an investment of USD223mn. This strategic infusion of capital is intended to bolster AbbVie's worldwide production network with an emphasis on the development of biologic drugs. The planned expansion will not only

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• The Bank of England (BoE) held Bank Rate steady at 5.25% on February 1 2024, marking the fourth rate hold in a row. The BoE has clearly entered a holding pattern, which we expect to extend well into 2024.
• We anticipate that the BoE will begin to reduce rates in H2 2024, with 75bps of cuts pencilled in by end-year.
• Although our

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• We retain our view that Botswana’s current account surplus will widen to 1.1% of GDP in 2024, from an estimated 0.4% in 2023.
• Our expectation of a widening surplus is premised on a recovery in the export-oriented diamond sector, alongside continued growth in service exports.
• Botswana’s ample foreign exchange reserves will limit

Key View

• In line with our expectations, the flash estimate for eurozone real GDP growth in Q423 came in at 0.0% q-o-q (Bloomberg consensus: -0.1%), following a 0.1% contraction in Q323. This brought the region’s annual growth to 0.5%, down from 3.4% in 2022.
• We forecast that eurozone growth will accelerate modestly to 0.8% in 2024 and 1.5% in

Key View: Over 2024, we hold a positive outlook for consumer spending in Mexico, albeit at a slower growth rate compared to 2023. Spending growth will be underpinned by solid economic growth, easing inflation and a still-tight labour market. Furthermore, consumer confidence remains steady, with lower inflation feeding into positive retail sales

Key View

• We recorded seven new autos projects that were either announced or inaugurated in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in Q423 totalling over USD1.6bn.
• This quarter, the range of investments we tracked was diverse, covering components, vehicle assembly and electric vehicle (EV) supply chains. We traced two projects each for