Articles

Key View

• Trade risks will escalate for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and electric vehicle (EV) battery manufacturers amid the push from various markets to enhance self-sufficiency in their EV supply chains.
• The EU is likely to sign new free trade agreements (FTAs) with resource-rich markets in 2024 to diversify its supply of

Key View

• We revised down Saudi Arabia's GDP growth forecast for 2024 from 3.3% to 2.6% due to lower oil production post-OPEC+ production cuts. This will see the non-oil economy be the primary driver of growth despite some softening due to elevated interest rates.
• The kingdom will register a slight fiscal surplus in 2024, bolstered by slightly

Key View

• Establishing the first ever ‘Health Day’ at COP28 will provide a platform at future meetings to highlight the inextricable link between climate and health.
• The endorsement of the Declaration on Climate and Health by more than 140 countries at COP28, coupled with several funding commitments, will help to support the resilience of

Key View

• The release of the EU’s list of critical medicines will bolster efforts to mitigate drug shortages in Europe.
• In the long-term, we expect a structural shift towards enhanced local pharmaceutical manufacturing within the region to reduce dependence on imports.
• However, the EU's proposed legislation will hinder pharmaceutical

Key View

• Malaysia’s upstream sector is gathering momentum as investors commit to exploration and production investments.
• New PSCs are providing the impetus for increased investments in Malaysia’s upstream exploration and production.
• Accelerated upstream exploration efforts are contributing to new discoveries and reserves.
• The outlook for

Key View: Russia's electric vehicle (EV) sales growth is expected to remain strong in 2024, bolstered by the government's investment plan and increased presence of Chinese brands. However, geopolitical tensions and infrastructure limitations pose challenges.

Key View: We hold a positive outlook for consumer spending in Thailand over 2024, as the wider Thai economy recovers and growth figures return to a more stable medium-term trajectory. High-frequency data indicate that consumer confidence has reached a 45-month high, suggesting that consumer spending on big-ticket items will be more likely, as the

Key View

• The AVMA will significantly boost Africa's self-supply of vaccines in the long-term.
• The AVMA will enhance pandemic preparedness and address life-threatening diseases in the region.
• The approval of the AVMA, alongside trade harmonisation will transform the pharmaceutical landscape.

The African Vaccine Manufacturing Accelerator

Key View

• The conclusion of the presidential election will allow the Egyptian authorities to successfully negotiate a new IMF programme, likely in Q124.
• We reiterate our belief that the negative implications of the Israel-Hamas war on the Egyptian economy and Cairo’s role as a mediator in the conflict will catalyse increased foreign financial

The Latest: On December 04, the Botswanan government announced that it would be extending and expanding import restrictions on fresh produce. The policy was initially implemented in December 2021 to bolster local production and reduce Botswana’s reliance on imports for food products. While the restrictions were intended to last for two years