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• We forecast that real GDP growth in The Gambia will accelerate to 5.5% in 2024, from 5.0% in 2023.
• Strong remittances and rebounding tourism will be the main drivers of real GDP growth in 2024, supporting both private consumption and investment.
• In 2025, growth will slow modestly to 5.3% as remittance inflows decrease, but growing

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• We forecast client loan growth of 3.5% in Ukraine in 2024, as stabilising domestic demand and looser monetary policy will allow lending activity to normalise somewhat, albeit at lower levels than pre-war.
• Rate cuts will weigh on deposit growth, which we expect to slow from a projected 19.6% in 2023 to 10.1% in 2024, although

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• The Bank of England (BoE) held Bank Rate steady at 5.25% on December 14, marking the third rate hold in a row. The BoE has clearly entered a holding pattern, which we expect to extend well into 2024.
• We anticipate that the BoE will begin to reduce rates in H2 2024, with 75bps of cuts pencilled in by end-2024.
• In spite of a weak

The Latest: During the American Society of Haematology (ASH) annual meeting, which took place from December –9-12 2023 in California, Johnson and Johnson (J&J) announced positive data from the Perseus Phase III clinical trial. The study, which evaluated Darzalex Faspro (daratumumab and hyaluronidase) among stem cell transplant-eligible patients

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• Recent and upcoming inaugurations of new and reelected leaders in Argentina, Egypt, and Poland highlight ongoing economic and political constraints facing their agendas. In emerging markets (EMs) with upcoming elections, including South Africa, Mexico, and Turkiye (municipal) such constraints will test incumbents and raise unrest

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• We forecast that Nigeria's real GDP growth will increase modestly to 2.9% in 2024, up from 2.4% in 2023.
• The operational start of the Dangote refinery in Q124 will lead to a sharp reduction in imports and increase the country’s trade surplus, providing tailwinds to economic growth.
• However, domestic demand will remain weak in 2024

Key View: The Western European household goods sector is increasingly being influenced by the minimalism trend, where consumers favour simplicity, functionality, and sustainability. This shift is driven by a desire for uncluttered living spaces and eco-friendly products, with a focus on quality and longevity over quantity. The trend aligns with

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• Establishing the first ever ‘Health Day’ at COP28 will provide a platform at future meetings to highlight the inextricable link between climate and health.
• The endorsement of the Declaration on Climate and Health by more than 140 countries at COP28, coupled with several funding commitments, will help to support the resilience of

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• The release of the EU’s list of critical medicines will bolster efforts to mitigate drug shortages in Europe.
• In the long-term, we expect a structural shift towards enhanced local pharmaceutical manufacturing within the region to reduce dependence on imports.
• However, the EU's proposed legislation will hinder pharmaceutical

Latest Development: State-owned operator VNPT has called for the government to adjust the regulatory system to facilitate the development of Internet of Things (IoT), cloud, big data and AI service provision in Vietnam.

Forecast Implications: We see this as a positive development from the government to push for IoT infrastructure that would