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The Latest: On January 15, Peru’s statistical agency (INEI) released economic activity data that showed the economy grew 0.3% y-o-y (0.8% m-o-m) in November compared to the dismal -0.8% y-o-y in October. With Peru still deep in recession, this was the first-time economic activity was in positive territory in y-o-y terms since April (see chart

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• We anticipate that Uganda’s deposit growth will increase slightly from 13.3% y-o-y at end-2023 to 14.0% at end-2024. We also think that client loan growth will increase from 8.5% to 12.0% over the same period.
• Higher capital requirements – which will come into effect in June – will once again be a key concern facing banks in 2024.
• W

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• We forecast that Zambian real GDP growth will accelerate from an estimated 3.5% in 2023 to 4.8% in 2024.
• While improving investor sentiment and higher copper prices will support fixed investment growth, elevated inflation and tight credit conditions will weigh on private consumption.
• We forecast that in 2025, economic growth will

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• The latest figures suggest that EMs performed well in late 2023 with activity holding up, consumer sentiment strong and inflation slowing.

• We expect, however, that growth will slow in 2024 in most parts of the EM world.

• While inflation will continue to ease, slower growth in DMs will create significant headwinds that will

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• As we expected, Bernardo Arévalo was sworn in as president of Guatemala, overcoming efforts by Guatemala’s political and legal establishment to block him from taking office.
• Entrenched opposition to his anti-corruption agenda and his Movimiento Semilla’s small share of seats in Congress suggest Arévalo will face obstacles to his

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• GE HealthCare’s agreement to acquire MIM Software will support the company’s digital transformation strategy. 
• Mergers and acquisitions will become a key feature of GE HealthCare’s digital transformation strategy as the company aims to expand its digital capabilities and precision care offerings.
• Radiology will continue to dominate

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• The development of hydrogen infrastructure continues to be a prominent strategic aim for authorities amid the low-carbon energy transition, with European utilities and governments among the most advanced globally regarding on-land development efforts.
• The visibility of hydrogen demand, or lack of it, remains the overarching

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• The political backdrop in Ireland will remain stable in the year ahead of next election in 2025.
• We see little reason that the main governing Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil coalition partners will manage to meaningfully narrow their polling gap with the nationalist opposition party Sinn Féin.
• This is due to the fact that the main electoral

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• Following President Felix Tshisekedi’s re-election – and his ruling coalition’s strong showing – at the December 2023 general election we expect a rapid formation of a new government, and tailwinds to policy formation and continuity.
• We believe that Tshisekedi will preside over strong growth in his second term, and that he will

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• According to the initial estimate from the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), German real GDP contracted by 0.3% in 2023. This marked a sharper contraction than our prior forecast for a 0.1% decline, signaling a worse economic performance in Q423 than expected by consensus.
• We retain our forecasts for real GDP growth of 0