Articles

Asia will face another challenging year in 2024. A likely global slowdown will cap growth recoveries in the region. Mainland China in particular is likely to slow even further, with spillover effects for the rest of the region. Relief from monetary easing will come later, as we expect the Fed to only begin cutting in H2 2024, which will prevent

Key View

• The year 2024 will see elections held in an unusually high number of large or geopolitically significant economies compared to previous years, but for the most part, we anticipate continuity in government of the ruling parties, and thus broad policy continuity.
• Of greatest interest to international businesses, investors, and

Key View

• Following a year of significant volatility and general easing of prices across the board, we present our key views for global commodities in 2024.
• We expect commodity prices to gain some ground in 2024 from current levels (as of December 2023), driven by energy and industrial metals but capped by declines in agricultural crop prices

Key View

• Global support for solar continues to strengthen in the second half of 2023, as the technology maintains its low-cost status, compared to other non-hydropower renewables. We revised up our annual average growth rate for the coming 10 years from 12.2% to 13.9%.
• We expect the world’s total solar capacity to reach about 1,320GW by the

We forecast that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will accelerate to 3.7% in 2024, from a projected 2.8% in 2023. Excluding 2021, the peak year for post-Covid recovery, this is the fastest rate of growth in a decade, and positions SSA as a global outperformer given slowing growth in developed markets. However, faster headline growth masks

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• Challenging macroeconomic conditions, a persistent cost burden on industry participants and the overhang of tight monetary policy conditions will weigh on infrastructure investment and construction industry activity in 2024.
• Higher debt servicing costs and structurally elevated sovereign debt levels will undermine infrastructure

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• The global oil and gas capital expenditure growth is expected to sharply decelerate from 2024 onwards compared with the levels seen between 2021 and 2023. Companies will become more cautious in spending amid growing market uncertainty and softening energy prices as they broadly continue to prioritise value over output growth.
• MENA

Key View

• In 2024, we expect to see only slight improvement to mineral and metal prices due to weak demand in Mainland China and a subdued outlook for other major markets with global growth decelerating from 2.6% in 2023 to 2.1% in 2024.
• Heightened concerns over critical mineral resource security in major economies will continue to drive the

Key View

• Over 2024, we expect a surge in grid investments as markets work to meet the transmission needs of growing non-hydro renewable capacities, with a focus on large scale projects and renewable interconnection.
• We believe that the preference for solar will intensify over 2024, further pushing solar's lead up when compared to wind as the

Key View

• The US Bureau of Industry and Security has amended the technical and geographic scope of its export controls on semiconductors and related equipment towards 17 new emerging markets across Central, South East Asia and the Middle East & North Africa region. 
• In our view, emerging markets, which have been identified as a technological