Articles

Key View

• We forecast client loan growth of 3.5% in Ukraine in 2024, as stabilising domestic demand and looser monetary policy will allow lending activity to normalise somewhat, albeit at lower levels than pre-war.
• Rate cuts will weigh on deposit growth, which we expect to slow from a projected 19.6% in 2023 to 10.1% in 2024, although

Key View

• The Bank of England (BoE) held Bank Rate steady at 5.25% on December 14, marking the third rate hold in a row. The BoE has clearly entered a holding pattern, which we expect to extend well into 2024.
• We anticipate that the BoE will begin to reduce rates in H2 2024, with 75bps of cuts pencilled in by end-2024.
• In spite of a weak

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• The release of the EU’s list of critical medicines will bolster efforts to mitigate drug shortages in Europe.
• In the long-term, we expect a structural shift towards enhanced local pharmaceutical manufacturing within the region to reduce dependence on imports.
• However, the EU's proposed legislation will hinder pharmaceutical

Latest Development: State-owned operator VNPT has called for the government to adjust the regulatory system to facilitate the development of Internet of Things (IoT), cloud, big data and AI service provision in Vietnam.

Forecast Implications: We see this as a positive development from the government to push for IoT infrastructure that would

Key View

• We forecast that real GDP growth in Cameroon will accelerate to 4.5% in 2024, up from 3.9% in 2023. We retain our 2023 forecast after Q223 data showed that growth accelerated, in line with our expectations, coming in at 3.9% against an upwardly revised 3.6% in Q123.
• In 2024, growth will be driven by a strong performance by the non

Key View

• Beijing stressed the importance of making “economic progress” at its annual Central Economic Work Conference on December 12.
• We take this to mean that it will set a growth target of around 5% at the upcoming Two Meetings (lianghui) in March.
• However, a weak global economic outlook in 2024 and the ongoing housing market downturn mean

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• Trade risks will escalate for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and electric vehicle (EV) battery manufacturers amid the push from various markets to enhance self-sufficiency in their EV supply chains.
• The EU is likely to sign new free trade agreements (FTAs) with resource-rich markets in 2024 to diversify its supply of

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• We revised down Saudi Arabia's GDP growth forecast for 2024 from 3.3% to 2.6% due to lower oil production post-OPEC+ production cuts. This will see the non-oil economy be the primary driver of growth despite some softening due to elevated interest rates.
• The kingdom will register a slight fiscal surplus in 2024, bolstered by slightly

Key View

• Establishing the first ever ‘Health Day’ at COP28 will provide a platform at future meetings to highlight the inextricable link between climate and health.
• The endorsement of the Declaration on Climate and Health by more than 140 countries at COP28, coupled with several funding commitments, will help to support the resilience of

Key View

• The conclusion of the presidential election will allow the Egyptian authorities to successfully negotiate a new IMF programme, likely in Q124.
• We reiterate our belief that the negative implications of the Israel-Hamas war on the Egyptian economy and Cairo’s role as a mediator in the conflict will catalyse increased foreign financial