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• We forecast that real GDP growth in Madagascar will accelerate from an estimated 4.4% in 2023 to 4.9% in 2024.
• This will be driven by robust private consumption growth as low inflation provides a boost to household incomes, while investment in the mining sector will also provide tailwinds to headline growth.
• In 2025, we project that

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• Persistent Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea have disrupted maritime trade, leading to increased shipping costs and rerouting to the Cape of Good Hope, with economic and geopolitical impacts on the MENA region to continue into the first half of 2024.
• Egypt, Jordan and Israel will be the main countries impacted by trade

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• After a robust post-pandemic rebound, we believe growth in French Polynesia will moderate amid emerging capacity constraints and less favourable base effects.
• Tourism will remain an important driver of growth, while easing inflationary pressures will support consumption and investment activity.
• Risks are tilted slightly to the

Latest Development: Data released on January 25 showed South Korea’s real GDP expanding in Q4 by a seasonally-adjusted 0.6% q-o-q for a third consecutive quarter. This corresponded to 2.2% y-o-y growth. Overall, the economy expanded by 1.4% in 2023, largely in line with our forecast for a sharp slowdown to 1.3% from 2.6% in 2022.

Key View

• We continue to forecast that US real GDP growth will slow to 1.4% in 2024, from 2.5% in 2023. The economy grew by a strong 3.3% on a q-o-q annualised basis in Q423, following a blockbuster 4.9% print in Q323.
• As we outlined in early January, we expect that growth will ease but remain close to trend in Q124 given looser financial

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• The proposed reimbursement model will increase stockpile of antibiotics and reduce the risk of shortages in Sweden.
• We maintain our forecast for steady growth in pharmaceutical expenditure in Sweden in the near-term.
• Drugmakers operating in Sweden will see marginal financial gains from the state’s reimbursement model.

The proposed

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• Trade disruptions in the Red Sea will negatively impact the chemical and pharmaceutical raw material sector.
• Dwindling pharmaceutical raw material supplies will force Egypt-based drugmakers to operate at lower capacity.
• In the near term, Egypt’s pharmaceutical market size will contract in USD terms, before restabilising in the

Commodity price movements over the past month have been relatively muted, despite widespread disruptions to trade flows through the Red Sea. Over recent months, in the wake of the Israel-Hamas war, the Houthis in Yemen have ramped up their attacks on merchant vessels in the area. Despite the presence of Operation Posterity Guardian (the maritime

Key View

• At its January 25 policy meeting, the Turkish Central Bank (CBRT) hiked its main policy rate by 250bps to 45.00%, which the CBRT confirmed was sufficiently high given the present inflationary backdrop.
• We maintain our view that the CBRT has been hiking rates as much as possible before the domestic economy weakens excessively, and the

The Latest: Effective from January 15 2024, the government of Cote d’Ivoire instituted a six month ban on the export of essential food products in order to maintain food security and address production shortfalls. The ban will also seek to protect consumers as expectations of increased food consumption during the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON)