Articles

Key View:

• Stricter environmental regulations in China will weigh on manufacturers of active pharmaceutical ingredients.
• Chinese API manufacturers will be confronted with new environmental and regulatory restrictions due to their history of poor waste processing and disposal.
• The tougher pollution curbing measures will in turn pose risks to

Key View:

• Although recent months have seen significant progress in peace negotiations between the ruling Frelimo party and opposition group, Renamo, there is still a risk of progress stalling, or even a breakdown in peace talks.
• The timeline for disarmament remains a hotly contested topic. For example, as of late June, Frelimo is refusing to

Key View:

• Real GDP growth will accelerate in Mexico in 2018 and 2019, driven by manufacturing and service sector growth.
• In 2019 and 2020, we expect a further uptick in growth, fuelled by growth in the primary sector and increased public spending under the administration of leftist populist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO).
• However

This quarter, we maintain our forecast for 3.3% growth in new vehicle sales across 2018, with commercial vehicle (CV) sales (3.9%) set to outperform passenger vehicle (PV) sales (3.0%).

• Following another year of double-digit declines for new vehicle sales in 2017, we adopt a cautiously positive view on the Omani market in 2018.
• We

Key View: Investment in Tajikistan's transport infrastructure sector over the next decade will primarily be driven by two factors: the critical need to rehabilitate and upgrade domestic road networks, and the expansion of regional transport links on the back of China's Belt & Road initiative. As a landlocked country, the road and rail segments will

Key View:

• Increased cost-containment across Europe will result in greater consumption of lower margin drugs.
• Consolidation and vertical integration of medicine wholesale and retail markets is increasing.
• Drugmakers may improve market access in Central Europe but revenues may be repressed.

Transformation of the pharmaceutical supply chain

Key View: The economic liberalisation of Myanmar has led to an uptick in foreign investment in the country's beverage industry, with Yoma Strategic Holdings announcing its joint venture with Pernod Ricard to produce and sell whiskies in Myanmar. Alcohol consumption in Myanmar is expected to pick up, albeit from a low base, due to rising disposable

Key View: Increasing incidence of labour strike action in the UK and Norwegian offshore infrastructure raises the risk to the timely completion of project timelines as well as the longer term investment attractiveness of the region.

• Unresolved labour disputes raise the risk of disruption to project timelines.
• Further striking and powerful

Key View: Kiribati released the KV20 in July, which outlines the government's long-term development plans for 2016-2036. Although the growth targets are overly ambitious, we see the blueprint as generally positive for the economy. We are revising our average real GDP growth forecast upwards to 2.7% per annum over the coming decade (from 2.0%

Key View:

• Mexico remains a key medicine market in Latin America.
• Ageing population and a rising chronic disease burden continues to fuel opportunities for drugmakers.
• Weak regulatory environment and cost-containment measures threaten innovative drugmakers.
   

Forecasts:

The value of Mexico's pharmaceutical market reached MXN189.68bn (USD10