Articles

Key View:

• Political concerns will elevate government expenditure in 2018, notably due to the cost of elections in December and the need to combat numerous insurgencies across the country.
• Disagreements with donors will weigh on a large revenue stream, while disorder and mass displacement in some regions will dampen tax revenues, widening the

We believe that logistics and air travel infrastructure in Bhutan will likely be attractive areas for foreign direct investment over the coming years. Our view is informed by the EU-Bhutan Trade Support Project and an improving tourist arrival outlook. This supports our forecast for real GDP growth to average 7.0% over the coming decade.

It is

• We have revised down our growth forecasts for Nigeria's alcoholic drinks sector following the implementation of higher excise duties on beer, wine and spirits.
• In addition to passing on the duties to consumers, companies will also look to cut costs by refocusing production in other markets in West Africa, and by investing in local, cheaper

Key View:

• We expect that the Congolese franc will remain in a broad, depreciatory trend in both the short and the long term as political strife, negative real interest rates and monetary tightening in developed markets create downside pressure on the currency.
• Depreciation will be much more gradual than in 2016 and 2017, however, as robust

Key View:

• After a substantial cycle of monetary easing in recent years, increased upside risks to inflation will prevent the Bank of Uganda (BoU) from implementing further cuts to its policy rate over the short term.
• Robust economic growth prospects will further limit the impetus for monetary easing, as improved private consumption and ongoing

While Moroccan growth will moderately slow in 2018 and 2019, we expect it to remain above the regional average thanks to tourism and manufacturing gains.

• Morocco's real GDP growth will slow in 2018 and 2019 compared with the highs seen in 2017 but will remain above the regional average.
• Tourism and manufacturing will be the key growth drivers

• While low coffee prices will subdue overall export receipts, increased production of electricity, leather products and other agricultural goods will see export growth remain positive.
• Owing to the devaluation of the birr in October 2017, import demand is likely to be somewhat subdued given the increased price of consumer and capital goods in

This month, we look at how the continued rise in populism in emerging markets (EMs) is leading to some backtracking of reforms, following the recent, albeit widely anticipated, electoral success of populist candidates in Mexico and Turkey. Upcoming general elections in Brazil, Argentina, India and Indonesia - among others - could see policies

Key View: Robust US gas supply gains, combined with a faster rate of storage injections, will cap Henry Hub prices over H218. Increasingly efficient upstream operations will support continued output growth at low prices beyond 2020, offsetting demand growth from expanding US export capacity.

We are revising down our forecast for South Korea's real GDP growth in 2018 from 3.0% to 2.7%. This is due to weaker export growth as a result of base effects and escalating global trade tensions, as well as the weak employment outlook in the country, which will weigh on private consumption.

We are revising down our forecast for South Korea's real