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• The Port of Maputo in Mozambique is on track to strengthen its role as a pivotal logistics hub in Southern Africa, driven by the MPDC'S strategic investment of USD600mn to enhance terminal facilities by 2026. This initiative is part of a more expansive USD2bn investment plan aimed at broadening the port's capacity and infrastructure by 2058

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• We expect Ukraine to record current account deficits in 2024 (-6.5% of GDP) and 2025 (-5.7%).
• Our forecasts suggest deeper current account deficits relative to 2023 (-5.3%) due to changes in the structure of US aid which narrow the secondary income surplus. 
• Long-term concessional lending from international partners will continue to offset

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• We have reduced our forecasts for Kuwait's real GDP growth from 1.0% to 0.7% for 2024 and from 4.5% to 2.7% for 2025 after the OPEC+ decision to extend production cuts and only gradually start bringing oil back to the market from September 2024 onwards. 
• Slower oil production growth will reduce Kuwait’s exports, given that oil accounts for

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• We have revised up our forecast for the UAE’s 2024 current account surplus from 10.8% of GDP previously to 11.8% of GDP, despite the extension of OPEC+ supply cuts, as we become more upbeat about services exports.
• In 2025, we now expect larger surplus of 11.0% of GDP against 10.4% previously due to a more pronounced increase in hydrocarbon

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• Among the immediate implications of the disruption of Red Sea trade flows in recent months, and subsequent reduction in Suez Canal traffic, is a weakening of revenues for the Canal and increased uncertainty around future revenue levels, thus creating a lasting challenge for plans to expand the Canal. 
• With the decrease in traffic in the Suez

The Latest: On June 4, 2024, Toyota and Mazda announced that they would temporarily suspend vehicle production and exports of certain models after the automakers admitted to irregularities in their Japanese safety tests, Japan's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism states that the investigation identified six models affected by

Latest Development: On June 2, as widely expected, the governing MORENA party’s Claudia Sheinbaum was the comfortable victor of Mexico’s presidential elections, and as a result will become Mexico’s first female president on October 1. Preliminary polling – the official count does not begin until June 5 – indicates that Sheinbaum won at least 58.0%

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• TotalEnergies' FID on the Kaminho Project reaffirms Angola's appeal as an attractive destination for upstream investment.
• The long-term outlook remains dour due to the natural decline at existing fields and the limited exploration success necessary to drive the next wave of offshore developments.
• Additional greenfield oil developments are

Key View: The planned reduction in subsidies in Egypt, including a significant increase in bread, fuel, and electricity prices, will raise month-on-month inflation and push inflation up to around 30% in 2024 and 18%-20% in 2025, which will weigh on disposable incomes of the Egyptian consumer. This reduction in disposable income is expected to