Articles

Key View: Although we have increased our 2018 real GDP growth forecast on account of strong Q118 print, we continue to believe that economic growth will slow over the coming quarters. The external sector will face headwinds from weakening growth in the eurozone, while domestic demand also looks set to be constrained by rising inflation. This will

Key View: Afghanistan's domestic political outlook will remain chaotic over the coming quarters as the Islamic State, the Taliban and the government compete with each other to gain territorial control, resulting in widespread civilian casualties. The upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections that are to be held in October 2018 and April

Key View: We believe that the broad policy continuity that is provided by the continued dominance of the Democratic Party of Socialists in Montenegro's politics will bode well for further reforms, which will assist the country in its accession to the EU over the coming years.

In our view, Montenegro continues to benefit from broad policy

Key View: The NATO alliance is likely to remain intact with only minor expansion over the coming decade, as bureaucratic inertia prevents a dramatic reconfiguration of the organisation. Nonetheless, NATO faces downside risks to its cohesion and effectiveness, owing to diverging threat perceptions of its member states, and low levels of defence

Key View:

• China will continue to deepen its investment presence in the infrastructure markets of Central and Eastern Europe in service of its broader aim of increasing logistical connectivity throughout Eurasia.
• As such, we expect that China will maintain its investment focus on sectors that encourage cross-border mobility, such as transport

Key View:

• Substandard medicines undermine market attractiveness for drugmakers in China.
• Recent vaccine scandal will impact the country's long-held ambition to become a major player in the global pharmaceutical industry.
• Controversy around Chinese medicines further erodes public trust in domestically produced drugs.

Forecasts:

The Chinese

Key View: Few months onward from the imposition of tariffs on metals imported into the US, we look at the implications and impacts on various stakeholders. As trade war rhetoric between the US and China continues to escalate, uncertainty surrounding trade flows and metal prices presses on, with more negotiations and discord expected over the coming

Key View: China's footprint in the global power sector will grow substantially under the Belt and Road Initiative, as recipient countries will aim to attract Chinese investment to boost electrification levels while China seeks to export domestic power sector overcapacity. Coal will remain the core power technology export, which will lead to greater

Key View: The heavily indebted government of Tajikistan will seek to maintain strong relations with its creditors, particularly China, to avoid a sudden strain on its finances or heightened regional tensions. That said, the government's ability to meet its debt obligations is diminishing and this will prove a key source of political risk over the

Key View:

• Zimbabwe's general election is likely to deliver a victory for incumbent President Emmerson Mnangagwa.
• A democratically elected Mnangagwa administration is likely to push forward with much-needed structural reforms and bring Zimbabwe out of international isolation.
• The government's ability to support healthcare provision will remain