Articles

Key View

• We have marginally revised up our 2024 growth forecast for Barbados from 2.9% to 3.1% on the back of a brighter US growth outlook, which will lift tourist arrivals and demand for goods exports.
• Final consumption will continue to benefit from falling inflation, a low unemployment rate and strong growth in public sector wages.
• Risks

Key View

• Natural gas demand growth in 2024 is expected to be supported by healthy demand from city gas consumers.
• LNG imports are expected to rise, far exceeding domestic consumption in 2024 and beyond.
• South Korea could see a significant excess in LNG storage capacity as companies ramp up investments in new regasification and storage

Key View

• We forecast that the BoT will hike the policy rate by 50bps to 6.00% in July 2024, after the BoT set its new central bank rate at 5.50%, reflecting the bank’s adoption of a new interest rate-based monetary policy framework.
• Despite a general global dovish pivot and a likely trend of moderating inflation, we expect the BoT to

Key View: We hold a positive outlook for Croatia's consumer activity over 2024, with support for spending and confidence coming from a strengthening economic backdrop, easing inflation and jobs and earnings growth. Consumer confidence has been improving steadily over the last few months of 2023 and with inflation easing over the same period, this

Key View: Despite the hurdles to EV ownership in South Africa, we note that there is strong upside risk over the longer term as consumers adopt solar, battery energy storage systems and EVs to be more self-sufficient and eliminate most of the need to buy fuel and electricity from the state and mitigate inflationary risks stemming from oil price

Key View

• Europe’s exposure to geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea is multifaceted, creating vulnerabilities for several markets in the region, with some negative implications for economic growth amid higher inflation risks.
• Disruptions in trade routes are likely to precipitate a significant increase in European import costs for consumer

The Latest: On January 16 2024, the European Commission’s Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority launched an open call for expression of interest to join the Critical Medicines Alliance (CMA). This represents the first major step towards the founding of the alliance which is planned to address drug shortages at the EU level. In

Key View

• Following the narrowing from 30.2% of GDP in 2022 to a projected 24.9% in 2023, we expect the Norwegian current account surplus to recover modestly and widen to 26.2% in 2024.
• Travel will remain the biggest negative contribution to the services balance, with shipping as the largest item on the exports side.
• We expect Norway’s

Key View

• We anticipate that Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and his government will continue to face difficulties passing legislation as ideological differences and the lack of a majority obstructs the policymaking process.
• Podemos’ exit from the government means that policy in areas such as labour will be especially complicated.
• The divisions