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Latest Development: Data released on January 25 showed South Korea’s real GDP expanding in Q4 by a seasonally-adjusted 0.6% q-o-q for a third consecutive quarter. This corresponded to 2.2% y-o-y growth. Overall, the economy expanded by 1.4% in 2023, largely in line with our forecast for a sharp slowdown to 1.3% from 2.6% in 2022.

Key View

• We continue to forecast that US real GDP growth will slow to 1.4% in 2024, from 2.5% in 2023. The economy grew by a strong 3.3% on a q-o-q annualised basis in Q423, following a blockbuster 4.9% print in Q323.
• As we outlined in early January, we expect that growth will ease but remain close to trend in Q124 given looser financial

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• The proposed reimbursement model will increase stockpile of antibiotics and reduce the risk of shortages in Sweden.
• We maintain our forecast for steady growth in pharmaceutical expenditure in Sweden in the near-term.
• Drugmakers operating in Sweden will see marginal financial gains from the state’s reimbursement model.

The proposed

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• Trade disruptions in the Red Sea will negatively impact the chemical and pharmaceutical raw material sector.
• Dwindling pharmaceutical raw material supplies will force Egypt-based drugmakers to operate at lower capacity.
• In the near term, Egypt’s pharmaceutical market size will contract in USD terms, before restabilising in the

Commodity price movements over the past month have been relatively muted, despite widespread disruptions to trade flows through the Red Sea. Over recent months, in the wake of the Israel-Hamas war, the Houthis in Yemen have ramped up their attacks on merchant vessels in the area. Despite the presence of Operation Posterity Guardian (the maritime

Key View

• Forecasted exports and pharmaceutical sales in Kazakhstan are expected to increase in the short- to medium term.
• The increase in localised pharmaceutical production will reduce pharmaceutical security risks in Kazakhstan.
• We expect that Kazakhstan will become a regional hub of pharmaceutical production.

Forecasted exports and

Latest Development: On January 22 2024, major pharmaceutical companies, including Roche and Sinopharm, have ramped up production in response to a sharp increase in the demand for respiratory illness treatments across Mainland China. Data from the online healthcare service JD Health revealed that in the initial 12 days of January 2024, sales of

The Latest: On January 24, the European Commission proposed its Economic Security Policy package, which aims to insulate the EU’s economy from geopolitical and supply chain risks through stricter controls on foreign investment and exports in strategic industries. More concretely the package focusses on five key areas:

1. Inbound Foreign

Key View: Brazilian households will allocate close to 10% of their budgets towards furnishings and home spending over the medium-term (2024-2028) period. Rising disposable incomes and an established and growing urban population will support increased household goods demand, while housing support schemes such as the Minha Casa Minha Vida (MCMV)

Key View

• While Sri Lankan policymakers left their Standing Deposit Facility Rate on hold at 9.00% at their first meeting of the year, we think that they will restart their loosening cycle in Q2 2024.
• We expect that they will cut the rate to 7.00% by the end of the year. 
• Risks are weighted towards the rate remaining higher for longer. In