Articles

We are revising down our forecast for South Korea's real GDP growth in 2018 from 3.0% to 2.7%. This is due to weaker export growth as a result of base effects and escalating global trade tensions, as well as the weak employment outlook in the country, which will weigh on private consumption.

We are revising down our forecast for South Korea's real

Key View:

• The continued integration of the Pacific Alliance over the coming years as outlined in the group's Vision 2030 approved on July 25 will benefit the infrastructure sectors of Colombia, Mexico, Chile and Peru.
• Cooperation to facilitate flows of investment between countries in the group will ease obstacles to cross-border infrastructure

Key View: Sandoz's overall Q218 sales have been hampered by US sales, which continue to be troublesome for Sandoz; with several consecutive quarters of declines, US sales are now at their lowest point since before Q114. Biopharmaceuticals sales are proving to be an increasingly bright spot for Sandoz. Whilst they remain a small part of total

• After rebounding in the last quarter of 2017, Rwanda's economic growth is set to continue to accelerate over the next two years, mainly due to an expansion in services and agriculture.
• Moreover, increased government-led investment in key infrastructure projects focused on addressing the country's energy and transportation shortcomings will

Thailand's consumer spending will see an uptick in 2018, driven by an upward revision in GDP forecast. Existing favourable conditions of low unemployment, rising incomes and high frequency indicators pointing to the strength of the consumer will support our bright consumer outlook for Thailand.

• Within our consumer spending sub-segments, we note

• Russia to post budget surplus in 2018 and 2019.
• Putin's 2018 May Decrees will shape the country's budget strategy over the coming years, underpinning reform momentum in the fiscal sector and increased borrowing.

Forecast Change:

• We have revised our budget balance forecasts for Russia to reflect higher than anticipated revenues alongside

Key View:

• Stricter environmental regulations in China will weigh on manufacturers of active pharmaceutical ingredients.
• Chinese API manufacturers will be confronted with new environmental and regulatory restrictions due to their history of poor waste processing and disposal.
• The tougher pollution curbing measures will in turn pose risks to

Key View:

• Although recent months have seen significant progress in peace negotiations between the ruling Frelimo party and opposition group, Renamo, there is still a risk of progress stalling, or even a breakdown in peace talks.
• The timeline for disarmament remains a hotly contested topic. For example, as of late June, Frelimo is refusing to

Key View:

• Real GDP growth will accelerate in Mexico in 2018 and 2019, driven by manufacturing and service sector growth.
• In 2019 and 2020, we expect a further uptick in growth, fuelled by growth in the primary sector and increased public spending under the administration of leftist populist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO).
• However

This quarter, we maintain our forecast for 3.3% growth in new vehicle sales across 2018, with commercial vehicle (CV) sales (3.9%) set to outperform passenger vehicle (PV) sales (3.0%).

• Following another year of double-digit declines for new vehicle sales in 2017, we adopt a cautiously positive view on the Omani market in 2018.
• We