Articles

Key View: We highlight Bulgaria as a market to watch for tourism investment over the medium term (2024-2028). We estimate that the market’s total tourist arrivals made a full recovery to their pre-pandemic levels in 2023 and will grow by an annual average of 3.7% over the medium term to reach a projected 15.5mn in 2028. We highlight investment in

Key View

• We expect the NOK to appreciate gradually over the course of 2024 even as it faces short-term headwinds as a favourable interest rate differential and lower NOK sales by Norges Bank support the unit.
• Our expectation for a favourable interest rate differential between Norges Bank and other central banks drives our bullish forecast for

Key View

• Saudi Arabia's GDP will recover from a contraction of 0.9% in 2023 to positive growth of 2.4% in 2024, with the non-oil economy doing much of the heavy lifting in tandem with a normalisation in oil production.
• Steady oil production, sluggish demand for Saudi non-oil exports and steady import growth will see net exports remain a drag

Key View

• Foreign pharmaceutical companies will continue to cast a vote of confidence in Mainland China's medicine market and will expand investment.
• We believe in 2024 multinational companies will increasingly partner with local companies in Mainland China to leverage the synergies of both foreign and domestic companies.
• Mainland China's

Key View

• We retain our view that Botswana’s current account surplus will widen to 1.1% of GDP in 2024, from an estimated 0.4% in 2023.
• Our expectation of a widening surplus is premised on a recovery in the export-oriented diamond sector, alongside continued growth in service exports.
• Botswana’s ample foreign exchange reserves will limit

Key View

• In line with our expectations, the flash estimate for eurozone real GDP growth in Q423 came in at 0.0% q-o-q (Bloomberg consensus: -0.1%), following a 0.1% contraction in Q323. This brought the region’s annual growth to 0.5%, down from 3.4% in 2022.
• We forecast that eurozone growth will accelerate modestly to 0.8% in 2024 and 1.5% in

Key View: Over 2024, we hold a positive outlook for consumer spending in Mexico, albeit at a slower growth rate compared to 2023. Spending growth will be underpinned by solid economic growth, easing inflation and a still-tight labour market. Furthermore, consumer confidence remains steady, with lower inflation feeding into positive retail sales

Key View

• We recorded seven new autos projects that were either announced or inaugurated in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in Q423 totalling over USD1.6bn.
• This quarter, the range of investments we tracked was diverse, covering components, vehicle assembly and electric vehicle (EV) supply chains. We traced two projects each for

Key View: We retain our view that the Philippines’ tourist arrival levels will fully recover to their pre-pandemic levels in 2024, after the country recorded a strong 2023 with over 5mn tourists arriving over the full year. In 2024 we project the Philippines' tourist arrivals will grow to 8.21mn. The country’s continued recovery from the negative

Key View

• We believe that, following a 100 basis-point (bps) cut to 29.00% in January, the Bank of Ghana (BoG) will lower the benchmark interest rate by an additional 700bps to 22.00% by year-end.
• Inflationary pressures will continue to dissipate over the coming months, driven by the lagged impact of tighter financial conditions, statistical