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We believe that support for the Awami League government is likely to remain strong at the parliamentary elections which must be held by end-2018. This is likely to be supported by the populist FY2018/19 (July-June) budget, which saw a significant increase in planned spending that is targeted at the rural agriculture community and social development

Key View: The Chinese central government will accelerate its Made In China 2025 programme as trade barriers threaten its access to key foreign technology, and technological progress remains a key source of legitimacy for the Communist Party.

In our view, China will double down on its efforts to be self-reliant in tech in order to advance its

• Kuwait is a reasonably attractive destination for innovative medicine launches, yet regulatory deficiencies limit its appeal to any meaningful investment.
• The domestic pharmaceutical industry is well-placed to attract greater investment.
• The majority of medicines will remain sourced from abroad from multinational drugmakers.

Forecasts:

Drug

The UK government's White Paper on its proposed future relationship with the EU should bring reassurances for the Autos sector on key issues such as free trade and type approvals. This should ensure no major shocks to the UK market through inventory disruption and we have maintained our forecasts for now.

The Latest: The UK government has

Key View: The re-imposition of US nuclear-related sanctions will substantially weaken Iran's economy, and further fuel popular discontent inside the Islamic Republic. That said, with longstanding partners such as China and Russia maintaining engagement, a severe, multi-year depression and resultant political destabilisation appear unlikely to occur

Key View:

• Stricter environmental regulations in China will weigh on manufacturers of active pharmaceutical ingredients.
• Chinese API manufacturers will be confronted with new environmental and regulatory restrictions due to their history of poor waste processing and disposal.
• The tougher pollution curbing measures will in turn pose risks to

Key View:

• Although recent months have seen significant progress in peace negotiations between the ruling Frelimo party and opposition group, Renamo, there is still a risk of progress stalling, or even a breakdown in peace talks.
• The timeline for disarmament remains a hotly contested topic. For example, as of late June, Frelimo is refusing to

Key View:

• Real GDP growth will accelerate in Mexico in 2018 and 2019, driven by manufacturing and service sector growth.
• In 2019 and 2020, we expect a further uptick in growth, fuelled by growth in the primary sector and increased public spending under the administration of leftist populist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO).
• However

This quarter, we maintain our forecast for 3.3% growth in new vehicle sales across 2018, with commercial vehicle (CV) sales (3.9%) set to outperform passenger vehicle (PV) sales (3.0%).

• Following another year of double-digit declines for new vehicle sales in 2017, we adopt a cautiously positive view on the Omani market in 2018.
• We

The implementation of the International Maritime Organization (IMO)'s cap on sulphur content in marine fuels will prove majorly disruptive globally. Below we explore key implications for the oil and shipping sectors. 

The implementation of the IMO’s 2020 sulphur cap (IMO 2020) will accelerate efforts to curb maritime air pollution. However, it